Michigan--Obama (44) Romney (48)

[woolldog]

Appears to be a questionable pollster though. It's getting a lot of play in Michigan.

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19329562/new-michigan-poll-has-romney-ahead-of-obama

[RandySF]

1. I call BS on this poll.

[Proud liberal 80]

2. Same pollster

Had Romney up in Florida yesterday 53 to 39 that is why TPM switched fla from toss up to leans Romney

[ananda]

3. Seriously?

That is so hard to believe.

[ProSense]

4. Are you

Celebrating again?

Aug. 20: When the Polling Gets Weird
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/aug-20-when-the-polling-gets-weird/

[woolldog]

8. ....

I'm terrified of Obama losing.

Dont assume that because you deal with bad news differently that we're not on the same team.

[ProSense]

9. Then may I

"I'm terrified of Obama losing. "

...suggest stop searching for every crappy negative poll?

[woolldog]

11. I'm not "searching for every crappy poll"

I look here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

which has every poll. It's just that most of them have been crappy lately.

[ProSense]

14. I does seem

"I'm not 'searching for every crappy poll'"

...that way, especially since you only post the negative ones. Still why not do a little research so that you can gain some perspective?

"It's just that most of them have been crappy lately."

No they haven't been. Look here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

[woolldog]

16. *sigh*

averages are lagging indicators

[ProSense]

17. What?

"*sigh* averages are lagging indicators"

You said "most of them have been crappy lately," and relevant to Michigan, no they haven't.

You're not "terrified" Obama is going to lose, you're here pushing the point using flawed polls.

[Cali_Democrat]

10. Obama won't lose

Chill out.

The polling methodology is a joke.

[cali]

24. Of course he could lose. It's dangerous to think that he has it in the bag.

[snooper2]

26. you two always confuse me,

Will the Real Cali please stand up!

[cali]

27. say what? How do I confuse you?

do explain. Not that I expect you can or will. specifics would be nice.

And as far as this topic goes, I've said from the get go that Obama could lose.

[snooper2]

29. LOL, wish I could respond to two posts at the same time..

I meant you "cali" and "cali democrat" that you had responded to

[sibelian]

33. ooooohhhhh....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021158832

YES!!! YES!!!!

FEAR.......................

THE FEAR...........

AT LAST SOMEONE GETS IT!

[woolldog]

36. I find your posts

deeply disturbing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. A Lot Of Crappy Polls for President Obama Lately

I hope it's temporary and an aberration.

[Cicada]

6. Poll smartypants Nate Silver says this pollster has 11 point prorepug bias in Michigan

this is one wacky pollster. In their FL poll they estimate only 10% of electorate will be under 50 years old. In 2008 it was 50%. Silver calculates their MI house effect, compared to other pollsters, at plus 11 pro republican.

[Dawson Leery]

41. This is part of the Rove propaganda machine.

[Ikonoklast]

7. Oh, it's you again, with a regularly scheduled FUD Report.

Do you really think you are fooling anyone except yourself?

[sibelian]

34. "Dont assume that because you deal with bad news differently that we're not on the same team"

[progressivebydesign]

12. presented by "FOXdetroit" that explains a lot. But we just need to keep working even so. n/t

[spartan61]

13. What in hell is wrong with Michiganders?????

[Proud liberal 80]

15. They over sampled old people big time in

Both Michigan and Florida
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/08/20/poll-shows-romney-up-huge-with-seniors-foster-mccollum-white-associates/

If anyone can come out with a poll and sample who they want then I just conducted a poll that had Obama up 90% to 10% in Texas and 100 to 0% in Georgia; according to my polls these states are now strongly Obama. The media needs to change the projection maps and highlight my polls.

In all seriousness, it seems like everytimea poll is very favorable to Obama like last weeks Fox and CNN polls, they are dismissed by the media and everything is still so close. But when poll is favoring Romney no matter the margin then Obama is I trouble,

[woolldog]

18. yes

this pollster reweights data. that's always a big red flag to me and why I was arguing with Pro Sense in the WI thread.

PPP doesn't reweight data, yet she was criticizing them for their composition of the poll respondents.

[ProSense]

20. Get

yes

this pollster reweights data. that's always a big red flag to me and why I was arguing with Pro Sense in the WI thread.

PPP doesn't reweight data, yet she was criticizing them for their composition of the poll respondents.

...your facts straight. I mentioned exactly why I see a flaw in the sample: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1172933

There is no way 66 percent of Wisconsin voters are going to be over 45.

On edit: In fact, the previous poll that showed Obama ahead, used a sample that included 62 percent over 45.

That is the difference oversampling seniors makes.

[woolldog]

23. It's a random sample,

there's no flaw. You just don't like the particular results.

That's like flipping a coin 100 times and being angry that it came up heads 46 times instead of 49, or 50 or however many times YOU think it should've come up. Get over it.

[ProSense]

25. "Random sample"

could lead to a 16 point advantage for Democrats, and that would still be questionable.

Bottom line: The GE population will not be 66 percent over 45. Period.

[NotThisTime]

22. So the old people in Michigan believe Romney was right? Let Detroit fail? What the hell is wrong

with these people?

[Motown_Johnny]

19. Don't believe any polls until the debates are over. Neither the good nor the bad.

We are in that part of the cycle where things will fluctuate a lot. Take a break from reading all the polls and just relax. Things will shake out in a month or so.

[berni_mccoy]

21. This Pollster is full of shit. 59% of the population being 51 and over? I don't think so.

Also, it was a robo-poll, very unreliable. Out of 41,552 calls, only 1733 participated.

[leveymg]

28. This has the numbers almost reversed. Mitchell Poll: O (49%), R (44%)

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/244113-poll-obama-leads-in-swing-state-michigan

[woolldog]

30. I'm more inclined to trust that poll. nt

[Tarheel_Dem]

31. Tell the truth. You couldn't wait to post this crap poll, could you?

[woolldog]

32. lol

I posted a good poll in Virginia, no replies. Like Pavlov's dog I'm being conditioned to only post bad news.

[Tarheel_Dem]

37. I think the bigger "lol" is "myfox". You have an online acct with Fox News? That explains a lot.

[woolldog]

40. ? like I said already

I get all my polls from RCP.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

I highly recommend you bookmark that page.

[hay rick]

35. Myfox...hmmm.

[WI_DEM]

38. Never heard of this pollster.

[marmar]

39. A BS poll taken by automated phone........

I cannot believe people fall for this shit.