Romney up by 15% in (a very strange version of) Florida

[cthulu2016]

I'm a big defender of polling—polls are useful, they mean what they mean and not all unlikable results are fake.

But when a poll is wrong on its face then it is wrong.

A poll weighted to assume that people under 30 will make up only 2% of the electorate in 2012, down from 15% in 2008, and that less than half as many hispanics will vote in 2012 as in 2008, is just fake.

once in a great while, a poll comes along with methodology that is so implausible that it deserves some further comment. The Foster McCollum White Baydoun poll of Florida is one such survey.

The poll was weighted to a demographic estimate that predicts that just 2 percent of Florida voters will be 30 or younger. It’s a decent bet that turnout will be down some among younger voters this year, but that isn’t a realistic estimate. In 2008, according to exit polls, 15 percent of voters in Florida were between 18 and 30.

The poll also assumed that 10 percent of voters will be between the ages of 31 and 50. In 2008, the actual percentage was 36 percent, according to the exit survey.

The poll projected Latinos to be 7 percent of the turnout in Florida, against 14 percent in 2008. And it has African-American turnout at 10 percent, down from 13 percent.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/20/aug-20-when-the-polling-gets-weird/

[orpupilofnature57]

1. Florida should be put on a pay no mind list ...

as far as polls and elections.

[riverbendviewgal]

2. I am starting to believe that these made up strange polls

are being put out because the Republican party is going to fix the election so the Democrats don't win, by voter suppression and hacking the vote, machines and absentee ballots.

They seem too confident to me.

[Alto30510]

3. Somebody Has Been Visiting the Liquor Cabinet Too Often

I never read such absolute BS in a poll. By their very nature, polls are defective. Even the best known national polls will admit to an error rate of 3 points plus or minus. Someone is engaging in wishful thinking or drinking too heavily.

[HockeyMom]

4. Take my Medicare and gimme a VOUCHER!!!

Yep, all the Seniors, and almost, hate their Medicare and want those voucher thingees.

Having had that private insurance in Florida, I'd take Medicare in a heartbeat. If Romney is elected, I will not get even in the single year that I will be eligble.

Take your vouchers, and school ones too, and put them where the Florida Sun doesn't shine.