Trump Says 58,000 Texans Voted Illegally. Here's What Actually Happened.

[pnwmom]

A "weak" match means the person may have a different middle name or even a different last name or even a completely different name.

https://www.aclu.org/blog/voting-rights/fighting-voter-suppression/trump-says-58000-texans-voted-illegally-heres-what?fbclid=IwAR2gfIVTOVsMk40bB1mBYEVriiMiMup8bRbLiY9HV_6i7rnIqMwEPI29OwQ

On Friday, the Texas secretary of state announced that he was sending local election officials a list of registered voters who had been flagged because, at some point, they purportedly had provided a document indicating they were a noncitizen — like a green card or work visa — while obtaining a driver’s license or ID card from the Texas Department of Public Safety. Among the people on the list, about 58,000 people may have cast a ballot in one or more elections from 1996-2018, according to the secretary of state.

Here’s the catch: Texas doesn’t actually know that the voters flagged are the same people who appear to be noncitizens. In fact, in its own advisory, the secretary of state’s office emphasized that all names were classified as “WEAK” matches, meaning that it is entirely up to the county whether or not they take action to purge these individuals from the rolls.

Even if they are accurate matches, Texas doesn’t know that the people are still noncitizens. Each year, between 52,000 and 63,000 Texans naturalize as U.S. citizens. Comparing current voter rolls with documents that people provided in the past, some more than 20 years ago, fails to account for people who became U.S. citizens at any time after they first obtained a state ID or driver’s license.

Texas driver licenses and ID cards also do not expire for a full six years after they are issued, so the odds are high that tens of thousands of people on the list of flagged voters are, in fact, eligible to vote. Given the flawed nature of this methodology, yesterday the ACLU of Texas and partners notified the Texas secretary of state that the advisory should be rescinded before any counties take action on it, and put all 254 counties in Texas on alert that they should not take action based on this advisory alone and must ensure that they do not act discriminatorily or infringe on the right to vote.


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WHAT IS A WEAK MATCH IN TEXAS? If the last 4 digits of the social and the birthdate are the same, a "weak match" doesn't require
the same name.

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/vr/index.shtml

A weak match occurs when two voter records have either: (1) the same nine numbers in the person's social security number and the same date of birth, or (2) the last four numbers in the social security number match and the same date of birth. In a weak match, there does not have to be a match on a voter's name. When this occurs, the voter registrar is required by State law to mail out, by forwardable mail, a verification letter to the voter

[guillaumeb]

1. Recommended.

This:

Here’s the catch: Texas doesn’t actually know that the voters flagged are the same people who appear to be noncitizens. In fact, in its own advisory, the secretary of state’s office emphasized that all names were classified as “WEAK” matches, meaning that it is entirely up to the county whether or not they take action to purge these individuals from the rolls.

The key to the Kris Kobach scam is generating millions of these weak matches to manufacture the illusion of millions of people voting illegally.

And if one is a conservative, this is "proof" that their views represent "real Americans".

[pnwmom]

2. Also, the article doesn't mention another weakness of all these database searches:

recent immigrants are more likely to have common names -- for example, Juan Garcia.

[guillaumeb]

3. Agreed.

And there are very many Smiths in the US, but in generally white areas, these similar names are not cause for the same level of concern that a name like Garcia evokes among racists.

[pnwmom]

6. There are many Smiths, but non-hispanic white people have a greater variety of names

than people from mostly Spanish-speaking South and Central America. That is one of the reasons the CrossCheck system, which is similar to the system Texas uses, is discriminatory.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/the-gops-stealth-war-against-voters-247905/

We had Mark Swedlund, a database expert whose clients include eBay and American Express, look at the data from Georgia and Virginia, and he was shocked by Crosscheck’s “childish methodology.” He added, “God forbid your name is Garcia, of which there are 858,000 in the U.S., and your first name is Joseph or Jose. You’re probably suspected of voting in 27 states.”

Swedlund’s statistical analysis found that African-American, Latino and Asian names predominate, a simple result of the Crosscheck matching process, which spews out little more than a bunch of common names. No surprise: The U.S. Census data shows that minorities are overrepresented in 85 of 100 of the most common last names. If your name is Washington, there’s an 89 percent chance you’re African-American. If your last name is Hernandez, there’s a 94 percent chance you’re Hispanic. If your name is Kim, there’s a 95 percent chance you’re Asian.

This inherent bias results in an astonishing one in six Hispanics, one in seven Asian-Americans and one in nine African-Americans in Crosscheck states landing on the list. Was the program designed to target voters of color? “I’m a data guy,” Swedlund says. “I can’t tell you what the intent was. I can only tell you what the outcome is. And the outcome is discriminatory against minorities.”

[guillaumeb]

7. If the outcome is discriminatory,

given the history of the GOP since 1965, we can safely infer intent to discriminate.

[rogue emissary]

4. Kick and Recommend

We need to get these facts out when we confront MAGAts.

[smirkymonkey]

5. K&R