General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSince we no longer care about doing the right thing, let's talk about math and black women
I don't know if it's a majority, but a general feeling seems to be emerging that posters at DU don't care about white men wearing black face, because Trump is mad.
So, let's not look at it from the perspective of right and wrong. Let's look at the numbers.
Black women are the single most important Democratic constituency.
By percentage, black women out-out white women 70 percent to 65 percent. They out-vote black men 70 percent to 60 percent.
A higher percentage of black women vote for Democrats (92 percent) than black men do (88 percent). And when the vote really matters, they win the election for us. Doug Jones won 98 percent (!!!!!) of the black female vote against noted pedophile Roy Moore.
If that voting percentage dropped to 60 percent - or inline with black men - we'd be doomed as a party. Virginia wouldn't even be worth talking about. Our dreams in North Carolina would vanish. Pennsylvania? Gone for good.
So, if you personally don't care that someone donned black face in 1984 or that a black female college professor has accused a sitting lt governor of sexual assault, maybe the cynical part of you should think about the people in your party who may care.
Back during the Bush years, I took a very unscientific poll at DU. And basically, we were a group that was around 98 percent white. Because of that, I've always felt that we had a racial blindspot here. And you certainly see that in things like debates over Sanders. Sanders was not the nominee in 2016 because black women voted for Hillary at around an 80 percent clip.
We really need to be aware of who the Democratic Party represents and who its most important constituencies are.
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)... not following through on established process's deeming a person guilty by accusation.
We should let our moderation be known, #NoFranken2.0
theboss
(10,491 posts)I don't agree with you.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)white flight vote returning. Not all of it, but a significant portion.
Overall, in rejection of what the Republicans have become, the suburbs went dominant blue after years as red. Even rural America is less red.
I'm sorry if you can't agree with the research and confirmed numbers that demonstrate all this definitively, but as I pointed out to you in another thread, truth is truth. And "disagreement" with truth is not.
theboss
(10,491 posts)The fact that we had to win them back in the first place is troubling.
2016 was a fucked up election, and it's likely that Hillary was just way way way more toxic than we ever could have imagined.
In retrospect, just running Biden as a "more of the same candidate" probably spares us from 10,000 think pieces on the Forgotten Trump Voter.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)ehrnst
(32,640 posts)theboss
(10,491 posts)Hillary got 51 percent of votes cast by white college educated women in 16.
Dems got 58 percent of those same votes in 18.
Thats everything. There really is no more to the story of what happened in 2016.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)Because you say so?
And I'm so flattered that you decided not to put me on ignore.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,112 posts)Empowerer
(3,900 posts)Which is often a good way to figure out true colors.
Eliot Rosewater
(31,112 posts)How dare she, right! (sarcasm)
Fucking rightwing assholes.
theboss
(10,491 posts)She only got 51 percent of white college educated women in 2016 - which is really just insane when you think about it.
Dems overall got 58 percent of white college educated women in 2018.
This is obviously a very fluid voting demographic and somehow she ended up in the low-end of the pool with the category of voters that she herself is.
If you like data and are a Democrat, 2016 will drive you totally insane.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)or the candidate?
Empowerer
(3,900 posts)ehrnst
(32,640 posts)And what are the "purposes" of their support that they "claim?"
Not sure what you're saying here.
Empowerer
(3,900 posts)I'm referring to people who pretend to have voted for Hillary but can't seem to keep their stories and positions straight.
.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)earthside
(6,960 posts)I don't understand this.
Have Northam and Herring been advocates for racial discrimination over the thirty years of their careers and political/governmental activities?
Or if their records on civil rights has been progressive and positive, then why must they resign now?
Not taking a "sledge hammers to fruit flies" does seem to be a conversation worth having.
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)earthside
(6,960 posts)Democrats seem to have entered a mode of self-defeating behavior.
Maybe that comes with a certain degree of success -- taking the U.S. House and many governorships and state legislatures. Over confidence?
But sowing division amongst people who are all civil rights advocates is the kind of divide-and-conquer strategy that is Trump's only route to re-election.
I'm still asking: what have Northam and Herring done during the past 30 years that betrays them as secret or overt bigots or racists? Or even ultra-conservative reactionaries on civil rights issues?
doompatrol39
(428 posts)Was he? Is there anything on his record except for the D after his name to make us believe he's been an advocate for civil rights?
I'm not even concerned with Herring at this point, and his apology seemed sincere and I believe he's been a Democrat for his whole career.
Why someone who spent most of their life and career as a Republican and has shown little to no honesty or remorse about this, and frankly has handled it horribly, is the person that so many on here are willing to fall on their swords over is beyond me.
earthside
(6,960 posts)I don't live in Virginia, so I don't know all the history.
I'm all for Republicans becoming Democrats.
I also agree that Northam appears to have initially panicked and hasn't handled this very well.
I'm concerned, too, that the remedies in these situations seems to the political 'death penalty', ie., resignation.
Isn't there a place for censure or reprimand?
I do not believe, for example, that Al Franken deserved what happened to him.
EffieBlack
(14,249 posts)and voting for civil rights legislation that any decent Democrat and decent person would vote for is apparently enough to be redeemed from doing some really racist things as a full-grown adult and is more than sufficient atonement for anything he may have done without him having to suffer any consequences or even inconvenience moving forward.
Talk about the soft bigotry of low expectations ...
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)doompatrol39
(428 posts)Sums up my feelings personally and written much more eloquently than I could have.
Setting aside the moral component of this (which in my estimation many on here have already failed), even the cynical component of not wanting to demoralize 2 massive Democratic voting blocks(African Americans and/or Women). The whole thing reeks of "Well what else are they going to do if they are mad? Vote Republican?"
manor321
(3,344 posts)Some have entered into a cult-like mentality where Democrats can do no wrong.
Northam needs to go. He's damaging the entire party by staying.
Fairfax I'm not sure about, but I'm leaning towards he should go.
Herring, IMHO, is a different case. He was 19.
fleur-de-lisa
(14,627 posts)They have a unique perspective on politics. We really need to listen to black women. They are the backbone of the party and the most reliable voting block we have.
theboss
(10,491 posts)Not only are they are most important voting bloc, they are rising into the middle class and upper class. If they begin mirroring white middle class and upper class women in their voting patterns, God help us.
fleur-de-lisa
(14,627 posts)I hope they keep running for office. I will gladly vote for them.
WhiskeyGrinder
(22,359 posts)LexVegas
(6,068 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)means very little, it is what they do in their adult years that matters. A big failing of the kavaunaugh stuff was the fact NO women came forward that said Kavaunagh behaved inappropriately in his adult years.....
I hate even a hint of a "litmus" test and any holier than now pronouncements basically negates the entire "redemption" aspect of people changing.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The last president to win a plurality or majority of the white vote was Lyndon Baines Johnson. Although African Americans comprise thirteen percent of the population they provide Democratic presidential candidates with approximately twenty seven percent of their votes.
To the present, IMO Northam has to go, I'm ambivalent about Herring, and deeply troubled about Fairfax. I desperately want the charges against him to be false, knowing in my heart that if he had an R after his name I would have started dozens of threads calling for his resignation.
I blame all three of them for putting us in this position.
theboss
(10,491 posts)I'll completely hate myself for it, and I had better see some groveling from him.
I get the political ramifications of this Virginia disaster, as they apply to that state.
But I also see the larger political ramifications if we just go full "circle the wagons" here.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)We know Northam created the most demeaning caricature of a black person you can imagine.
EffieBlack
(14,249 posts)And what Herring described was not actually blackface.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)theboss
(10,491 posts)So, I'm connected to Virginia even though I vote in Texas.
OilemFirchen
(7,143 posts)Any idea what the voters of Virginia might suggest you do with your demands?
dubyadiprecession
(5,716 posts)When it was found that he was a clansman in his youth, so why is it more important to get rid of Northam over a 35 year old photo?
Doesnt his character matter more in helping the black community during his career since that photo was taken?
theboss
(10,491 posts)We didn't "Find out" he was a Klansman. That was known and acknowledged from the beginning of his career. And he more or less spent the last 40 years of his life apologizing and trying to make amends for it.
Northam still doesn't seem to think he did anything wrong and mostly seems angry that he was asked to explain this.
EffieBlack
(14,249 posts)I wasn't around when he became a Senator - at least not to weigh in on anything.
Were you?
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)you're presenting.
We are all important because we all have that precious one vote each. Any claim that the vote of a woman of one race is somehow more important than the vote of someone of any other sex or race is bogus and insulting to all.
theboss
(10,491 posts)I mean, your sentiment is beautiful and Christian and all, but, we need to recognize who actually votes for us.
MichMan
(11,939 posts)Dont know why people feel it necessary to say one vote is more important than any other.
No one can win with just 25%
Aren't the remaining 75% just as important?
irisblue
(32,982 posts)The people, the POC/WOC who get the 'souls to the polls', the ones who knock on doors, the phone bankers, the ones who show up and do the job of voting. The Dem Party needs WOC/POC votes
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Eliot Rosewater
(31,112 posts)using it to divide us.
Not our first rodeo and wont be our last, this stuff.
Find a democrat, takes a while, who may have done something ugly, and WHOA NELLY the "concerned" come out in droves.
I am NOT talking about real African Americans or others who are angry about blackface or real gay folks or others who are concerned about homophobia, I am talking about the usual onslaught of CONCERNED folks who are not really who they say they are.
Doesnt work on cons the way it works on us, cons dont care, they have no morals nor do they give a shit about anyone but themselves.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)skin color and factionalism. That'd fix a lot of problems.
Heck, that'd even cover one of my most irritating betes noires, the self-loathers who always leap to smear us all with their pathological attitudes. There are a fair number here who need counseling just as much as trumpsters but will never get it.
mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)Trump denies he did it and/or denies it was bad/wrong to begin with ... and a few days later, everybody has MOVED ON. Are they still talking about Khashoggi on the news? Jailed children? Helsinki? Shithole Countries? Going Back to Their Huts? Using the N-Word on the Apprentice? Hell, Stormy Daniels and the Cohen Felony around it?
I could go on and on and on and on and on with this list.
My 'vote' is that we just STFU and let this blow over. Fairfax may have to be dealt with, this is a crime we're talking about. But a benefit from the perspective of Northam to what's going on with Fairfax (not making light of the allegation, mind you) is that Fairfax will now become the focus of the media's attention.
I myself don't buy this argument that if the Democrats of the World fail to successfully hound to Northam to resign, that Black Women will not show up and vote for Democrats nationally in 2020. This may hurt us in Virginia, yeah. But honestly that damage is 90% 'already done'. His resignation won't make everyone forget ... the picture. All his resignation does is confirm a) Yeah that was me, b) yeah I did it cause I'm a racist ... and a Democrat, and c) Democrats won't FIGHT.
I think Northam would be very wise to come out with a forceful press conference addressing his RECORD of support for issues that are favored by Democrats, and especially people of color. He HAS the record from what I've read. Get it out there. Start making the point that regardless of what he did 35 years ago, it doesn't reflect anything whatsoever about the man, or the political leader, he is today. Show everyone how much of a friend he has been when it comes to PoC's interests, BASED ON HIS RECORD.
Obviously, apologize sincerely.
Fact is, people LIKE to forgive, as long as you ask for it in the right way, and esp. if your actions since your wrongdoing show you've changed.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Four percent of African African American women vote for him:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president
mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)DAY IN AND DAY OUT that they're currently (and have always been, as proven by his rental practices in the 1970's) a raging f***ing racist.
Northam has done nothing of the sort.
He needs to get out in front of this NOW, apologize again, sincerely, and explain how this is not who he is, he didn't didn't realize at the time how offensive of a thing it was, that the intent was not to mock, it was dumb, spur-of-the-moment decision to dress that way, and then HIGHLIGHT his record and all the things he fought for that were in the interests of PoC.
BTW, what % of black women voted for Romney, may I ask?
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)MrGrieves
(315 posts)I very much dislike your ascribing absolute positions to the entirety of this forum and it's members. That isn't fair and it is a common trick to create division. I might agree with some of your statements but it is pretty destructive to a community to do it in the manner that you are.
mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)Yeah, not a fan either.
treestar
(82,383 posts)So what we want does not get done and what they want gets done. But we did the right thing.
Gray area here and we should give these people a pass because we don't deserve that. We didn't vet them too well and then elected them. But we have no choice unless we just want to cave and suffer the punishment of the right getting what they want because we a punishing ourselves for said mistakes. That's overly medieval Catholic. Black women won't want that either.
Check the yearbooks from now on, but don't hand the government to the Rs over it. There is nuance in every situation. No one said they "don't care" about Northam's or Fairfax's behavior. But use judgment over the reaction to it. Saying we don't care is bad faith arguing. It allows you to refuse to consider the argument, as you can just label us an uncaring because we see the down side for US and for women or for black people in letting this one go.
Your math argument is premised upon many black women deciding not to vote Democratic, and thus let Republicans rule, over this. That insults most of them.
theboss
(10,491 posts)The arc of the moral universe is long and all that jazz.
As I said before, I was here in 2004 when W was going to usher in a 1000 year reign of the Bush clan and Karl Rove literally could control the weather. Seriously. Go back and look at the threads then.
Now, we have weird W nostalgia.
This Trump moment is horrifying. But he's a 72 year old bigot being voted for by 60 year old bigots.
I've seen the numbers of voters under 40. I've seen the numbers of minority voters. I see the demographics of the country.
We need to hold on through this nightmare and stop him when we can. But, the story ends with us winning.
When we do, I don't want to think back on the time I though racism and sexual assault were just dirty politics.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)Some are larger than others. Still others vote more reliably than others. But each and every Democratic party member is as important as another.
If the Democratic Party starts taking orders from one demographic group, regardless of the consequences, the others will go shopping for someone else to vote for, who represents their interests.
We all belong to the Democratic Party because its platform represents all of our interests. As a white woman, I also vote for measures that affect black women, white men, black men, Hispanic men and women, low earners, wealthy Democrats, old ones and young ones, seniors and babies...everyone. Fairness to each and every group and person is important.
If one demographic group wants to make the Democratic Party its own personal party, they may get what they wish. Then, good luck with that, as the other groups leave. Whether the group is white or minority, female or male, old or young.
People vote for candidates because those candidates serve the voter's interests. They don't vote for them out of the goodness of their hearts. It's a quid pro quo...I vote for you, and you recognize my vote and represent my interests. ALL the voters, of every demographic, do that. The party represents them all.
theboss
(10,491 posts)Not morally. But their votes are more important.
This is Party Politics 101 going back to Thomas Jefferson. You don't piss off your core constituencies.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)That was the point I was making.
The party represents the interests of all of its members. They pay the most attention to the donors, if truth be told. They need the donations.
Different groups are important in different states. You don't cater to the interests of union workers in the rust belt, to the detriment of voters in other states. Each party has to find a way to represent all of its voters. If it doesn't, those voters will go shopping for someone who will represent their interests. This is partly what happened in 2016, as the Democrats lost the formerly reliable rust belt.
The party represents them all.
And we, the voters, actually support measures that help the other demographic groups but not necessarily our own. Wealthy and upper middle class Democrats wanted the ACA, even though they didn't need it, recognizing their fellow Americans w/o health care needed something to be done. We are all in this together.
theboss
(10,491 posts)We weren't allowed to own plastic garbage cans. Seriously.
But union voters are a smaller part of the country than ever, and those that remain are less loyal to Democrats.
That has to be part of the calculus of building a coalition.
mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)atreides1
(16,079 posts)Fresh_Start
(11,330 posts)its important that we remember none of us are more important than another.
Stand and Fight
(7,480 posts)It's really odd that Democrats here and elsewhere seem to think lessening the importance of black men who overwhelming support Democrats as well is somehow smart messaging. It's really very off-putting and does lend some credence to the thought that Democrats -- at the very least -- think the black vote is so guaranteed that you can continue to insult a significant bloc by saying the sort of things you do about us (black males). Sure, the black female vote is important, but it would be prudent -- if you're insistent on making a distinction -- you simply say the black vote. I'm really tired of my vote being discounted, as black women vote once -- just like black men.
mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)Honest question, did I miss something?
Stand and Fight
(7,480 posts)It's clear that my reply was more about reducing the importance of the black male vote than the single instance of one word.
mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)Stand and Fight
(7,480 posts)mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)When I hit reply, and began writing, your last 2 sentences were not yet there. Or I would not have posted.
Good day!
Stand and Fight
(7,480 posts)mr_lebowski
(33,643 posts)At the time I read them, just HOPING we can get into a battle about timestamps and shit, accuse each other of lying about 'what was on the board when' ... esp. when the subject matter is 'someone's personal opinion about something' ... cause I'm that trifling.
theboss
(10,491 posts)I don't mean to take the humanity out of this, but I operate under a theory that the three most important Democratic voting blocs are:
1. Black women
2. Black men
3. Single white women
This gets really cold, but with the first two blocs, I'm not yet worried with "losing their vote," which would be a disaster. I'm far more worried with turnout. When black voters turn out, Democrats win in the places they need to win.
In order to turn out that vote, we need to not only excite our voters but pay back our voters.
If there is anything to learn from Trump, it's that voters will make cynical deals. He is giving Evangelicals their entire wish list, which is something that an actual Evangelical like W never did. Voters want their needs met ultimately.
Single white women could turn, particularly as they become married white women.
By the way, this is nationally. I'm in Texas where you literally have to break down voters in 15 categories in order to figure out a path for Democratic victory.
Stand and Fight
(7,480 posts)theboss
(10,491 posts)I do feel that if they start voting GOP, our problems become largely unfixable in the short term.
I've seen nothing that concerns me about exiting the party yet since Republicans offer black voters literally nothing. Maybe in 20 years. We have to offer more than "not republican" though in order to actually earn the vote.
I don't think this is that controversial an idea.
Stand and Fight
(7,480 posts)I would posit that the concern isn't just that we might start voting GOP -- it's that we stop voting altogether because Democrats aren't offering very much other than lip service. Statements like those in your OP, and subsequent replies, serve to strengthen the argument that Democrats take the black vote for granted without offering much in return. "Explaining" to me why my viewpoint as a black male is wrong ain't helping either.
You're not concerned and you should be. I'm connected to the black community, and I'm telling you now that it is widespread that many others have a VERY unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. Many in the community think it's a waste of time to vote for either party. I don't share that view, but I very much understand it when Democrats pay lip service to fomenting good relations, but do nothing to change the underlying issues that are readily apparent.
Black men continue to be unfairly targeted by police, unjustly imprisoned or given stiffer sentences, and stereotypes by whites in America against blacks in general don't help. Both black women AND black men see this. Tell me what has the Democratic Party done to address this? Admittedly, Democrats are more likely to address it than Republicans, but their lack of universal action weakens that argument. So, again... I say that lessening the importance of one bloc while elevating the other is not the best approach while nothing is being done to fix the issues that affect us so much.
theboss
(10,491 posts)So, I think about the issues you do every day. And I do get frustrated with lack of legislative victories on the things that matter.
I would argue that since the ACA, it's been damn near impossible for either side to win any major legislative victories at all. So, while I agree that Democrats have done little to fix the issues you list, I would also argue that talking about them does have value when you don't have the ability to actually pass legislation.
As a resident of Texas, I haven't even been able to hope for gridlock, though that may be starting to change.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)That's some serious multi-tasking right there.
You should start a time management blog for parents.
theboss
(10,491 posts)I go through spurts.
But I'm assuming your kids are living with you?
In that case, spending the sheer amount of time over even one weekend is a feat of multitasking with raising THREE kids .
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)You have very, very strong opinions about Muslim immigrants, as I recall.
theboss
(10,491 posts)I do have an amazing story about a screed I wrote on my jury questionnaire because there was a possibility I was going to be sequestered for months on an "honor killing" case in Houston. I took my opposition to the death penalty up to 11.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)than your posts leading up to when you "vanished," as you put it in, March 2016, expressed in spades.
theboss
(10,491 posts)I found a post where I defended Pam Gellar's right to say horrible stuff, because horrible people have the right to say horrible things. I've always been a first amendment absolutist so that checks out.
I have always found it curious that you can call a Christian any name you want here, but it's basically not permitted to delve deeply into Muslim theology. I may have asked that once and got the results I usually get when I ask questions like that.
But I like Muslims. I worked with an attorney friend who went to O'Hare to help a Katy, TX kid who was detained during the Muslim Ban bullshit. When he got there, there was like 5 people already involved.
Reading this article is the single angriest I have been during the entire Trump Presidency. After this, nothing shocked me any longer.
https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Feds-detain-Katy-High-School-student-from-Jordan-10897205.php
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)New Years eve, 2016 Cologne...
Coming back to you?
theboss
(10,491 posts)I would be curious as to what either I said or you think I said.
I found a thread where I pointed out that comparing Muslim terrorists to Anti-abortion terrorists had a bit of a math problem (I like math).
But the idea that I said something truly bigoted is upsetting. So please share. If it's as bad as you say, I'll go on another sabbatical starting now.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)In early January of 2016.
Coming back now?
You certainly don't need me to be the reason you 'vanish' again. I'm sure you have very understandable reasons of your own.
I found this:
I don't think DU will ever be able to talk about Islamic extremism intelligently until DU is actually honest about Islamic extremism
I stand by that. We have a weird underdog fetish here that makes this a difficult subject.
I'm bored with this. Either show me or stop. I apologize for not recalling message board posts from three years ago.
Somehow, I don't think that's the descriptor here.
Interesting - "fetish" isn't a term that one that is normally used to describe liberal politics by liberals.
theboss
(10,491 posts)Deal?
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)"fetish" as you refer to that tendency of people here on DU to respect religious diversity.
It's the same search engine that I used.
By all means, ignore away. But didn't you say you were going to "vanish" again soon, until somthing like 2021? Seems redundant, in that case.
"Poof," I think you wrote.
EffieBlack
(14,249 posts)That's nice.
theboss
(10,491 posts)It seemed an appropriate response.
Im puzzled by this entire discussion.
Member when you hated Muslims?
No
You did
I did?
You did
When?
You did
When?
You did
When?
You did
Eliot Rosewater
(31,112 posts)EffieBlack
(14,249 posts)theboss
(10,491 posts)Why do you think liking Muslims is weird?
What is your issue with Muslims?
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)concerning "issues" with Muslims.
I guess you like me enough not to put me on ignore!
Empowerer
(3,900 posts)Given your oft stated- and I mean OFT - insistence that a woman alleging sexual asault must always be believed, I sure hope this young black man never finds himself on the wrong end of an uncorroborated rape charge.
Autumn
(45,109 posts)your values then one should not vote for them. Always your conscience.
ProfessorPlum
(11,257 posts)and black women are particularly astute about figuring out who that is.
From a policy perspective they are correct.
Let me know when you've figure out how to get perfect humans through the primary process.
theboss
(10,491 posts)I think often the vote is a rear-guard defense of the status quo.
I honestly think the Doug Jones race is the greatest modern example of this. He didn't get 98 percent of the black women vote, because he's a great modern civil rights leader. He go that because Roy Moore was literally the scariest possible human being imaginable in the Senate.
The concern going forward is that we need to do more than not be Republicans forever.
ProfessorPlum
(11,257 posts)and of giving our constituencies people they can vote FOR.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)LongtimeAZDem
(4,494 posts)ehrnst
(32,640 posts)All it needs is a big steaming pot of something to stir...
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)For the life of me, I don't understand why you come here and post, if all these things you claim are true about how horrible DU is.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Or maybe I've just been reading too many DU posts.
theboss
(10,491 posts)That would be helpful for sure.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...you don't select a nominee or campaign message based on that being the key to winning. Turning out the base is key, just as it was in 2018 and every other election. You let the fickle voters do as they may.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)All of those "emerging majority" studies are based on a shifting demographic(s), while mostly assuming normalcy elsewhere.
We still have the wind at our back but white voters altered things considerably for the worse by moving several points more toward Republicans, and also turning out in greater dependability.
That's why we can't afford any slippage among blacks. The black female vote is indeed the single most important category because our likelihood of gaining that vote is higher than anywhere else. If let's say 100 black females decide to stay home then our opportunity cost is roughly +84 net. Compare to a 60/40 category, which is still awesome but 100 missing votes would be loss of 20 net votes.
In other words, it would require more than 400 additional votes in a 60/40 category to offset the loss of 100 black female voters. That is what the OP is referring to, and we'd be moronic to discount or ignore it.
Donald Trump is already touting that Virginia will "come home" to the GOP based on these developments. I saw that headline today.
I'm not sure Trump realizes that Hispanics have a longstanding tendency to allow benefit of a doubt to the incumbent, no matter which party we are talking about. I doubt our own party leaders and strategists are paying attention to that type of thing, as opposed to clumsily marching forward while taking too much for granted and somehow not differentiating a battle against an incumbent from any other landscape.
JustAnotherGen
(31,828 posts)Where have you been all of my DU life?
But wow - you really hit the nail on the head.
I'm that woman. I've grown very frustrated with folks not getting our loyalty.
You get it. Thank you! We've been standing in a crowded room of friends and allies for three years - screaming at the top of our lungs -
And no one is effing listening. You are though. Thank you!
theboss
(10,491 posts)I have the post count to prove it.
I'll be gone again soon. And I'll return in 2021 or something.
theboss
(10,491 posts)Poof.
Autumn
(45,109 posts)theboss
(10,491 posts)I honestly think The Rising was released the week I joined. I could be wrong.
Autumn
(45,109 posts)Empowerer
(3,900 posts)270 posts and counting on one particular topic in two days (especially after not posting about anything at all since early 2016) is a pretty serious commitment.
I, for one, am delighted to see this degree of commitment and engagement on a topic of such importance and sensitivity!
theboss
(10,491 posts)In the mid 90s.
In some ways, I'm still a 22 year old who liked WCW over WWF.
theboss
(10,491 posts)Member since: 2003 before July 6th
I thought it was earlier than that.
Autumn
(45,109 posts)got deleted in a glitch so we were given the date of 2003 before July 6th.
theboss
(10,491 posts)I was a refugee from the Michael Moore bulletin board/message board, which was the single weirdest online gathering place I had ever been involved with.
On that board, I was somehow a staunch conservative, because it was filled with like literal Trotskyites. It's the only message board where I actually received a death threat that concerned me, because I was young and dumb and had actually given someone just a little too much personal information. I also got laid off it, which is truly bizarre 17 years later in retrospect.
JustAnotherGen
(31,828 posts)You have an overwhelming need to tell the TRUTH. Sorry your post got derailed by folks who want to focus on when you joined -
And not the content!
The content is EVERYTHING.
theboss
(10,491 posts)Thanks.
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)Ask if you need help.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=search
Response to theboss (Original post)
Empowerer This message was self-deleted by its author.
Empowerer
(3,900 posts)I can't speak for anyone else here but for me, as a black woman, your concern for me and my sisters warms my heart.
It's especially gratifying that we mean so much to you that, after a three-year absence, you returned to DU the day before yesterday to share your concerns about a black woman's allegation of sexual assault against a black man and that you devoted yourself to this effort with so much time, effort and diligence.
And speaking up when you did, just as we were grappling with how to handle the difficult situation of a governor admitting to racist and offensive behavior, makes your involvement in the discussion all the more meaningful.
Thank you for standing up to speak up for us with such passion at this critical time.
Welcome back to DU!
njhoneybadger
(3,910 posts)theboss
(10,491 posts)Here's the thing. I actually have an active political life. I do stuff. I posted to DU a lot in the early aughts and realized that all I was doing was writing nonsense to other people who felt the same way I did. So, since then, I've branched out. I'm active my local party. I have an active social media presence. I donate money. Etc. Etc. Etc.
Sorry I wasn't in this particular echo chamber at the time.
I was too busy working on my one degree of separation with Joe Manchin. (A close family friend is a close family thread).
I was communicating with my classmate who is a Representative.
I was writing to my fellow alum Ted Cruz and work for his defeat, which damn near happened.
I hope you can forgive me for not posting. "This will make Trump's head explode" memes.
maxrandb
(15,334 posts)How dare you say that people that don't want to destroy Ralph Northam's entire career "don't care about white men wearing black face".
That's like saying since someone didn't think Bill Clinton should be removed from office, they don't care about people cheating on their wives and workplace sexual harassment.
That's the kind of 3rd Grade level argument that Retrumplicans put in a little children's Pop-Up Book and recite on the Sean Hannity show everyday. It's frankly beneath us.
No, in my case, the argument is NOT that I don't care about white men wearing black face. It's that I care that we don't ruin someone's life over a stupid incident 35 years ago.
My argument is that maybe, what Ralph Northam has done for the 35 years since then, ought to matter. Not that a stupid thing 35 years ago doesn't matter, but that the 35 years should as well.
My argument is that Ralph Northam's policies are more indicative of the man he is today than the moron he was 35 years ago.
My argument is that Ed Gillespie (Northam's Retrumplican opponent) going on the Sean Hannity show to tell us Virginians in Richmond that they were about to be overrun by scary groups of "brown-skinned" MS13 gang members who were going to rape all the white women, is more indicative of the man he is TODAY!
Have you never forgive someone who has harmed you?
None of that is to excuse his stupidity. I'm not a minority, so I can't ever understand how much this hurts and disgusts on a visceral level.
But I do know this. There is nothing...ABSOLUTEL NOTHING...in Ralph Northam's policies, work as a doctor, Army Surgeon and family life that gives even the most remote indication that he is a racist. In fact, every indication and evidence is that he is the opposite of that.
But the thing that is most offensive about your post is the threat that African American Woman will "punish" the Democratic Party if Northam doesn't resign, of if people decide that they are going to forgive him.
I can't think of anything more bigoted than to suggest that African American voters are some type of monotheistic group that would deliver our country to the hands of the Retrumplicans over a 35 year old photo in a worthless college yearbook.
Is that really what you're saying; "Give us Northam or the country get's it"?
bpj62
(999 posts)I live in Virginia so not only do I have a dog in the hunt I also have a vote that matters. Before I go any further lets get some facts straight about the Gubernatorial race in 2017. Northam defeated Gillespie not Corey Stewart. Stewat lost in the primary. However he won the GOP nomination for Senate in 2018 but was soundly beaten by Tim Kaine in the general election.
In 2017 African American women in Virginia voted 88 to 12 for the Democratic ticket which was the widest margin of any of the groups that were polled. Now they were not the largest group of voters but thier efforts clearly made a difference particularly in the Richmond Area.
As a Virginian and a Democrat I do care about doing the right thing, I do not excuse what Northam did nor do I care for his lame apology. At least Mark Herring apologized for his idiocy. As for Justin Fairfax I am reserving judgment because quite frankly the comments on the whole affair have been divisive to say the least.
Lastly Democrats in Virginia have worked so hard to get control of the legislature and we are almost there. I also feel that our problems do not affect the party on a National level because all of National party leaders have called on Northam to resign.
theboss
(10,491 posts)As someone on the ground so to speak, what is more dangerous long-term? Losing the governor's seat now (which frankly doesn't have to happen) or leaving three potentially toxic characters in place.
I hate Virginia's single-term rule by the way. It 1) creates this situation where every governor is a lame duck on Day 1 and 2) creates way way way too many former governors who all want to be a Senator, VP, or President. I think I counted at one point and VA had ten living former governors.
Fresh_Start
(11,330 posts)and that other constituencies also voice their opinion
There is no way that I will say blackface is worst then sexual assault.
One of them is a crime and the other is not.
Now if it was sexual assault in blackface by a white person against another person for any sex, gender, or color, that would be worse than just sexual assault because there are two harms intended and not just one harm intended.
I don't discount that blackface is harmful...but its not criminal and it is not as harmful as sexual assault.
wasupaloopa
(4,516 posts)not how I feel.
Shaming people is a bully tactic.
HopeAgain
(4,407 posts)think about that. A grown man. I was learning how to become politically active at that age -- I was about the same age when I went to see Morris Dees speak. All the discussions about political expediency are meaningless to me.
I know what ain't right and that ain't right. I'm done arguing, let's see what happens.