New Wisconsin poll gives Obama the lead

[WI_DEM]

According to the new Marquette University Poll just released today President Obama leads with 49% to 46% for Mitt Romney. Two weeks ago, prior to the selection of Paul Ryan, Obama led by 5-points, 50-45, so the Ryan Bump in his home state has not been dramatic.

http://www.620wtmj.com/elections/stories/167058735.html

[woolldog]

1. This is heartening.

Thanks.

edit: although glancing at the poll, the lead has shrunk.

[WI_DEM]

3. umm, yes I wrote that the prior poll was 50-45

this is Ryan's home state after all.

[woolldog]

5. have you been able to find the internals?

[WI_DEM]

6. They haven't been posted yet on their website, as soon as they are I'll add them.

[Cali_Democrat]

4. You're such a worrywart

[bluestateguy]

2. FREEZE!

This poll is hereby frozen in time and will be cited as Gospel Truth no matter what, even in late October.

[ewagner]

7. The Marquette University Poll

is usually very generous to Repubs isn't it?

[WI_DEM]

9. No, I don't think it is.

I know it was more accurate during the recall, though, than PPP was. So if that's being generous to the republicans, then I don't know?

[ewagner]

16. Thanks

I thought I remember them being criticized for oversampling Republican voters during the final days before the recall election....

Maybe there WERE more Republicans?

[CabCurious]

8. When did he (Obama) lose the lead?

fixed

[WI_DEM]

11. Who?

Obama has always been in the lead. It's now a three-point lead for Obama. Prior to Ryan's selection Obama led by five points.

[CabCurious]

12. Exactly. Romulan and Ryan can't even carry their own states.

[kimbutgar]

10. But but a poll yesterday had rmoney ahead by 1% in Wisconsin they called it the Ryan bump

These polls are so out there I have trouble believing any of them. The only poll I will believe is the one the week before the election. If rmoney is ahead I will be wetting my pants and taking to my bed depressed that my fellow Americans have been so duped by the rich snake oil salesman and the terrible awful evil mean republicans who will take this country so far back sites like this will get shut down.

Please American people wake up! They are lying to you and once they get started on one group they will go after others. They will take the vote away from women and minorities. We see it already in those republican controlled states. They have been planning the takeover of America for decades and now it's in their grasp let's fight back hard and show them we love our country and we don't want the rich corporations to take over. We the people need to control the corporations not the corporations controlling the people. My battle cry for today.

[WI_DEM]

13. frankly there isn't much difference between the PPP & Marquette Poll...

being -1 point or 3-points ahead, it's still within the margin of error. My guess is that Obama has a small lead in Wisconsin. Ryan helps Romney some here because he is the native son. But if Obama puts a little time and effort into the state he can win--narrower than last time, no doubt, but a win is a win.

[CabCurious]

14. If you look at all the polls, the trend remains +Obama in wisconsin

[WI_DEM]

15. Among all registered voters Obama leads by six-points 50-44 (& demo results)

which is why GOTV will be critical.

Other demos:

PARTY ID WITH LEANERS
Party identification including those who lean toward one party or another
N %
Republican 307 43
Democrat 309 44
Neither/Just Independent (v) 84 12
Don't know/Refused (v) 6 1
_____________________________________________________________________

Age Category
N %
18-29 years old 116 16
30-44 years old 108 15
45-59 years old 243 34
60 years or older 205 29
Don't know/Refused (v) 34 5
______________________________________________________________________________

RACE/ETHNICITY RECODE
Race/Ethnicity
N %
White, non-Hispanic 555 79
Black, non-Hispanic 44 6
Hispanic 34 5
Other Race 31 4
Don't know/Refused (v) 42 6
______________________________________________________________________________

In general would you describe your political views as ...
N %
Very conservative 75 11
Conservative 213 30
Moderate 215 30
Liberal 110 16
Very liberal 46 7
Don't know (v) 13 2
Refused (v) 34 5
_____________________________________________________________________

Is this a cell phone or not?
N %
Yes 205 29
No 501 71
______________________________________________________________________________

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/MLSP10_Toplines.pdf

[HereSince1628]

17. Honestly, I think Thompson's primary victory has more to do with that than Ryan

The r's spirits are up a bit after choosing Thompson who at this time looks strong against Baldwin.

I think there was real fear about Neumann flushing away seniors. Thompson is talking wacking ACA which should scare seniors, but for those seniors who had Thompson as a governor for 16 years he's like a favorite old sweater...a bit moth eaten and threadbare but mostly associated with acceptable memories.

[ananda]

18. That is good news.

I hope it's enough to beat the Reep voter suppression and fraud efforts.