Bernie Sanders may struggle in the 2020 primaries -- and that could be a good thing for Democrats

[SidDithers]

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/bernie-sanders-may-struggle-2020-primaries-good-thing-democrats/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

So far, Sen. Bernie Sanders’ second potential presidential run has not taken off the in the way that his supporters might have hoped.

This isn’t to say that the Vermont senator is doing badly in the polls, per se. A Monmouth University poll taken late last month found him in a distant second with 16 percent, trailing former Vice President Joe Biden’s 29 percent but ahead of Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (at 11 and 8 percent, respectively). An ABC News/Washington Post poll from around the same time found him placing third, behind Biden’s 9 percent and Harris’ 8 percent but ahead of Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s 3 percent (it’s worth noting that this same survey found President Donald Trump with 4 percent of the vote and 43 percent marked as “Unsure”).

Perhaps most notable, however, was the Daily Kos Presidential Straw Poll, a survey that has traditionally served as a fantastic bellwether of who liberals support within the Democratic Party. When those results came out last month, Warren stood ahead with 22 percent, followed by O’Rourke with 15 percent, Harris with 14 percent, Biden at 14 percent and Sanders following behind at 11 percent.

If one is a liberal, Sanders’ decline within the Democratic Party should be viewed as a good thing. Sanders’ decline in the polls may be a sign that he has achieved some of his ostensibly larger political objectives. It is a sign that his’ left-wing political values have become increasingly mainstream.

Sid

[stonecutter357]

1. K&R Democratic party members only !

Bernie Sanders may struggle in the 2020

[democratisphere]

3. +1 Trillion

[trueblue2007]

16. i want him to struggle. He is NOT a Democrat !!!!

[BlueStater]

2. It'd be a better thing if he didn't run at all.

I can't think of a single good reason why he should run again. Unfortunately, it seems he got a taste of the spotlight in 2016 and has now adopted Rick Astley's mantra.

[Apollyonus]

9. I completely agree n/t

[OhZone]

26. Ha. So he's Bernie Rolling Us? n/t

[calguy]

4. Fours years later Bernie will be seen as "So Last Cycle"

[Scurrilous]

37. ...

[Kahuna7]

5. According to this 2/8 The Atlantic piece, he thinks he has a path to victory.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/02/bernie-sanders-close-announcing-presidential-campaign/582328/

[riverine]

6. If his "path to victory" includes depicting the Democratic Party as corrupt like he did in 2016

then count me out.

[Kahuna7]

10. Me too. In fact, I've decided that any candidate that "apologizes" for the Democratic

party (like Chuck Schumer does), goes down on my list of who to support. They would be embracing the republican frame.

[Blue_true]

25. I don't think that he will get away with that this time.

Bernie himself has skeletons in his closet, his taxes, his wife's running of a college and whether he used his influence to boost her grip on the college, his wealth or lack of will be examined, and biggest of all are the sexual harrassment and violence issues in his 2016 primary campaign.

[Garrett78]

31. 2016 was tailor-made for Sanders.

He was *the* alternative to a polarizing front-runner in a relatively small field of candidates. That anyone thinks he has a shot in 2020 is laughable.

[Blue_true]

32. The alternative to a decent person that had 30 years of character assination directed at her. nt

[Garrett78]

33. Yep, which is what made her polarizing.

And even so, the race was over by the end of Super Tuesday. Sanders won't even last that long in 2020, assuming he doesn't have enough sense to just stay out of the race. With Warren running and such a large field, surely he's leaning toward not running. Or not. We'll see.

[Me.]

35. And Then There Is That Pesky Rape Article

in the now @metoo era

[Blue_true]

39. Yeah, I forgot about that. nt

[NewJeffCT]

7. If he officially announces

he'll get a bump in the polls, I'm guessing. However, based on the early polling, it will be very difficult for him to come back and win - especially if Biden enters the race.

[Apollyonus]

8. Jumped the shark methinks .... nt

[safeinOhio]

11. I don't think he should run, but

I thank him for his Progressive voice that has opened the door to the likes of AOC and bringing a new generation into the Progressive fold.

[Gothmog]

12. I am glad to see this

[Andy823]

13. I thought

He was only going to run if there was nobody else that could beat trump? So far everyone that has announced so far could beat trump, so maybe he won't run!

[Hortensis]

41. Lol. Well, that statement was its own oxymoron

to begin with of course. Else?!

Imagining that he could defeat the Democratic nominee himself and also save the nation from Trump would be completely delusional. Either our Democratic nominee or the Republicans' will win in 2020. Could it be possible that he really doesn't realize that? And that he really doesn't understand his role in our nation's disastrous 2016 election?

[Andy823]

42. Yes I agree

I think the more candidates that we have the less chance he has, but I don't know if he will back off or not. I also wonder if he understands his role in trump taking office instead of Hillary. I guess time will tell.

[Garrett78]

14. He's completely reliant upon winning IA and NH to build momentum, and even that wouldn't be enough.

With Warren running, Sanders may have enough sense to not bother. It'd be all downhill after New Hampshire anyway.

[madville]

15. It all depends what Biden does

Right now, most candidates' fates hinge on what Biden decides to do, Bernie included. With such a large field, Biden can easily win this thing will only 30% support.

[Garrett78]

18. Warren alone makes the road a rocky one for Sanders.

Biden got just 4% in Iowa in 2008 and then dropped out. His 1988 attempt was even more short-lived thanks to various accusations. Obama picking him as VP gives him political life, but I'm not convinced Biden will do as well as many think he will. His age, penchant for gaffes, our increasingly diverse electorate and his history with the Thomas-Hill hearing could prove to be impediments. Plus, he's not necessarily the clear front-runner in New Hampshire in spite of being from New England. A loss there would be embarrassing.

Anyway, Sanders has to win IA and NH to build momentum, and even that wouldn't be sufficient. NV, SC and Super Tuesday aren't likely to be kind to Sanders. I'm not even sure he'll bother running.

Several of our candidates are very fortunate that the primary season starts off with 2 states that don't remotely reflect our electorate.

[madville]

19. I agree there are so many options Left options now

That will hurt Bernie, and the rest of them at the same time by diluting the liberal votes. That's why this is set up perfect for Biden, especially after 8 years as VP and with name recognition, he potentially could be the one center-left moderate option, facing 10 people coming completely from his left. We all know the nomination won't be decided in a DailyKOS straw poll or here on DU, the Democratic Party still has a huge chunk of moderate independent-types to court.

[Garrett78]

23. Demographics will play as much or more of a role than the center vs. left dynamic.

Warren and Brown (and potentially Klobuchar and potentially Gillibrand) would take votes from both Biden and Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire. Not to mention Beto, Inslee, Bullock, etc.

Even Tim Ryan might think he has a chance simply because we start with Iowa and then New Hampshire.

Name recognition is huge, though, for sure. And, as I said, Biden having been Obama's VP gives him a chance that he never would have had otherwise (as exemplified by his 2 previous attempts to get nominated).

If Harris or Booker or Castro were to win either of those first 2 states or at least do well in both, she/he will be set up very well for NV, SC and Super Tuesday.

[madville]

24. Biden is the wildcard

I believe the nomination is his if he runs. If he doesn't run, all bets are off, Sanders and Harris would seem to be the initial frontrunners.

I don't see demographics being a major factor in Iowa or NH, they are definitely more influenced by the center vs. left dynamic. SC will be the first test to see how Harris and Booker can potentially benefit from a large Black voting bloc.

The media will play a huge role as always, who they attack, who they cheerlead for. When the lower tier candidates like Gillibrand, Castro, Klobuchar, etc get 5% or less in Iowa and NH they will bail pretty quick. I would say Beto, Booker and Warren are mid-tier candidates at the moment, they'll have a tough time breaking 15% anywhere though. If Biden doesn't run the whole thing is going to be a giant mess, All the top and mid-tier candidates are going to start tearing each other apart to climb the ladder.

[Garrett78]

30. Demographics is always a major factor.

Where candidates are from, their race, their sex and other demographic information will absolutely be a major factor in Iowa and New Hampshire. Klobuchar benefits from being from a state that borders Iowa. Warren, Sanders and Biden being from New England helps them in NH. All of them (and others) benefit from Iowa and New Hampshire being 2 of the whitest states in the US--but this also means they could split the vote and leave an opening for someone else. Demographics always matter.

Anyway, I would bet Biden will run and *not* get nominated (or not run at all), for reasons I've already listed. I really don't think he'll be our nominee.

[DavidDvorkin]

17. He'll be a minor footnote

And the sooner, the better.

[ProudLib72]

20. We're berned out, dude!

On third party candidates especially.

[aikoaiko]

21. What we saw in the midterms and now for 2020 race is the result of...

...the best parts of the HRC's and Bernie Sanders' failed campaigns.

[Hortensis]

22. His claimed goals were always mainstream.

Claiming that mainstream Democrats did not share them was of course anything but "mainstream." The ethics and values (as guessed at by his actions rather than rhetoric) that still lead him to do so are notably also not mainstream, but rather harmful to the great mainstream alliance.

Our 2016 platform was our nation's most progressive since FDR's era, and our loss to an increasingly fascistic and anti-progressive right a very dangerous national tragedy.

[Me.]

36. THe Article Says He Has Achieved His Objectives

What were/are they? Asking for a friend.

[Hortensis]

40. Huh! I've literally wondered what his goals were

ever since his actions started belying and sabotaging his stated ones.

[betsuni]

38. +1

[CentralMass]

27. RealClear politics has him 2nd , behind Biden but above everyone else.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

[irresistable]

34. but the straw isn't voting for him. LOL

[Chemisse]

28. He can leave presidential politics right now on a high note

(relatively speaking) or run again and dwindle to irrelevance.

[DarthDem]

29. It's a Sign That

. . . his goals have been taken up by more suitable messengers. Which, yeah, is good on two levels.