Trump's secret to victory in 2020: Hispanic voters

[DonViejo]

Yes, it’s true: The man who wants to build a wall to keep out immigrants is winning over just enough Latinos to get re-elected. Unless Democrats figure out how to stop him.

BY DAVID S. BERNSTEIN

David S. Bernstein is a contributing political analyst at WGBH News in Boston.

When President Donald Trump tweeted, on January 20, that he had reached 50 percent approval among Hispanic Americans, most fair-minded observers reacted with skepticism, if not outright disbelief. Trump was, after all, still the same man who announced his candidacy by accusing Mexico of sending “rapists” across the border, the same man who ordered refugee children separated from their parents, the same man who has made building a wall to shut out migrants the focal point of his presidency. Yet here he was, crowing characteristic bravado: “Wow, just heard that my poll numbers with Hispanics has gone up 19%, to 50%. That is because they know the Border issue better than anyone, and they want Security, which can only be gotten with a Wall.”

So, when even the pollsters responsible for the data Trump was touting—Marist Institute for Public Polling, for NPR and PBS NewsHour—cautioned of the high margin of error for that subset, and a possible over-sampling of Republicans, many on the left promptly dismissed it as an anomaly.

One month later, however, and Trump making an aggressive play for Hispanic-American votes in Florida and beyond. Meanwhile, new polls suggest Marist might have been onto something—and that Democrats should be genuinely worried that Hispanic voters could help re-elect Trump and keep the U.S. Senate in Republican control. If so, it will be a cosmic twist of fate: A party that has staked its future on a belief that America’s demographic picture is changing decidedly in its favor could find itself losing to a man whose politics of fear should be driving precisely those voters into the Democrats’ waiting arms.

In theory, the rosy predictions that once gave rise to chest-beating liberal books like “The Emerging Democratic Majority” are proving true: 2020 will be the first U.S. election in which Hispanics are the largest racial or ethnic minority in the electorate, according to the Pew Research Center. Pew estimates that 32 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote—a full two million more than black eligible voters, and more than 13 percent of the electorate. Hispanics figure to comprise at least 11 percent of the national vote, as they did in 2016 and 2018.

Many expected Hispanics to vote overwhelmingly against Trump in 2016. A Latino Decisions poll just before the election found Trump with support of just 18 percent of Hispanics. But the actual figure was 28 percent, which—given Trump’s incendiary rhetoric about immigrants—some analysts and pundits refused to believe from exit polls until further studies confirmed it. That was essentially just as good as Mitt Romney, as the 2012 Republican nominee, did with Hispanics—and it was enough to help Trump squeak to an Electoral College victory.

more
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/02/24/2020-hispanic-voters-donald-trump-225192

[lancelyons]

1. Wow no comments on this. Surprising

I can’t imagine the group trump disparages the most would ever vote for him. Why?


Will the gop pay a price for their bigoted ways against Hispanics?

[AJT]

2. Most are Catholic, the single issue is abortion.

[Pope George Ringo II]

3. And that's the problem in a nutshell.

[Autumn]

4. That's not the the single issue. Keeping illegal immigrants out is also a part of it.

I was in New Mexico recently for a funeral and I was shocked how many of my Hispanic relatives are for his wall. I heard several times that the illegals undercut small businesses for contractors, roofing, gardening and stuccowork. My great-nephew, who came to CO and did the stucco on our house said that they are able to underbid projects because they pool the money and split it and most are payed in cash. No taxes and no paying the prevailing wage.

[MichMan]

6. I don't know how a contractor paying taxes, wages and benefits can compete fairly

Legitimate contractors paying good wages, benefits (including health insurance) unemployment taxes and workers comp taxes are trying to compete with those employing undocumented workers while evading all of that.

How are they supposed to compete under those conditions and still not be underbid on every job ?

[Autumn]

7. They can't compete fairly in that situation, that's a big problem. It's not that the illegals

are taking jobs they don't want, it's that they are able to underbid on those jobs and still make money.

[KPN]

5. Democratic candidates better have a clear

set of proposals for handling immigration and strong border security. And it needs to be simple and straight-forward. Wonk is a loser.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Hispanics have a long history of sticking with incumbents

I have mentioned this many times in recent months. Issues don't seem to matter to Hispanics nearly as much, when an incumbent is involved. They have considerably more loyalty to that incumbent than other voting blocks. Even if they didn't support that incumbent the first time, they'll prefer him during re-election. Often it is 6-10% greater than the first time. Trump started from a very low number so this time the potential shift is even higher.

I stopped trying to figure it out a long time ago. And I'm not sure our Democratic strategists are aware of this problem at all. As I emphasized late last year, if we simply plug in a projected percentage of the Hispanic vote toward 2020 without understanding the situational influence of an incumbent, then we are in store for a shock. The Hispanic numbers from 2016 and 2018 need to be thrown away completely. Logic needs to be thrown away completely.

If we ignore this situation it will be even worse than ignoring the white working class vote entering 2016. That demographic shifted a few percent. The Hispanic block is a smaller block but it has potential to move quite a bit more, and if so there is nowhere else for us to offset.

It should be a major priority today and every day.

I'll never understand why so many candidates decide to run against an incumbent instead of waiting for an open race.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. This convinces me even more that Beto is our best option in 2020

Beto is my first choice -- should he enter -- and Klobuchar second. I have not studied which candidates have strength among Hispanics but I cannot imagine anyone is better suited than Beto, given his heritage and his name and ability to speak Spanish.

Here in Miami I have seen the problem first hand when our candidates cannot speak Spanish and do not prioritize Spanish language media. My neighbors are Cuban and they told me that Rick Scott was all over Spanish television last year, while Bill Nelson was almost non-existent. Rick Scott is scum but he is resourceful scum. While governor he learned how to speak just enough Spanish to communicate during press conferences and while cutting commercials. Considering his winning margin, it was probably the difference. Scott received 45% of the Hispanic vote against Nelson. He lost the block just 54-45. Four years earlier against Charlie Crist, Scott lost the Hispanic vote 58-38.

Republicans have been outmaneuvering Democrats in Florida. We can't allow it to happen nationally, by making poor assumptions regarding the Hispanic vote in 2020.

[IluvPitties]

10. Trump is looking good on Venezuela.

If any of our candidates decides not to denounce Maduro forcefully, he or she can say goodbye to the Latino vote.