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Yahoo News headlines for Thursday, Aug. 23 (TOTALLY accurate and unbiased...) (Original Post) Wednesdays Aug 2012 OP
WTF? wryter2000 Aug 2012 #1
BWHAHA! Great quote...you just have to read a couple of paragraphs... Atman Aug 2012 #2
I have to read this tripe in order to get to my bellsouth.net e-mail account..Ugh..n/t monmouth Aug 2012 #3
(Obama) "...slips elsewhere in the polls" Wednesdays Aug 2012 #4

wryter2000

(46,051 posts)
1. WTF?
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 04:03 PM
Aug 2012

What "signs" are they talking about? Are they casting bones or something? Reading astrological charts?

Did you follow the link to see what the big exception was? Maybe it's that more people are going to vote for Obama. Of course, that's an imperfect measure of who actually wins.

Atman

(31,464 posts)
2. BWHAHA! Great quote...you just have to read a couple of paragraphs...
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 04:11 PM
Aug 2012


"In a perfectly ordered society, in which humans acted in reliably rational ways and researchers had access to complete data on every possible influence, making a model like the ones above might be sufficient to predict an election. In reality, models are about as good as those governing where soon-to-be Hurricane Isaac may or may not land: They can point in the general direction, but they can't predict exactly how the dice will fall. The best possible prediction engine factors in both these broad factors and the forward-looking polls and markets that contribute clarity.

Our updated model, which does factor in polls and markets, still has Obama winning the election with 303 votes.

We searched for an explanation for difference by looking for data points that are uniquely different this year than in the historical elections. There is one glaringly obvious factor: the favorability difference between Obama and Romney.


Favorability is shockingly bad for Romney. Pollsters routinely ask questions like, "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of …" for both Obama and Romney. Currently, the Pollster average has Obama with 48 percent favorability and 45 percent unfavorability, while Romney is lingering with 41 percent favorability and 47 percent unfavorability. Romney's consistent negative favorability to unfavorability split is unprecedented in American politics."
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