How Mueller Could Add to Trump's Electoral Woes

[DonViejo]

March 1, 2019 at 9:52 am EST By Taegan Goddard

Charlie Cook: “Trump won the presidency by carrying 30 states that total 306 electoral votes (though two electors cast their ballots for someone else). The election turned on Trump margins of seven-tenths of a point in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and two-tenths of a percent in Michigan. He lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton by a touch over 2 points, 46 to 48 percent. While no two elections have precisely the same dynamics, if 2 percentage points were not quite enough for Democrats to win the 270 electoral votes necessary for victory, let’s say that a Democrat needs to win the national vote by 3 points to be reasonably confident of a win. (Keep in mind that the last time there was as big a disparity in the popular and electoral votes was 140 years earlier, when Samuel Tilden won the popular vote while Rutherford B. Hayes prevailed in the Electoral College. But let’s just go with 3 points for this back-of-the-envelope analysis.)”

“Starting off with a base of 35 percent, Trump would need to win at least two-thirds of that 20 percent that is up for grabs in order to get within 3 points of a Democratic opponent and have any realistic chance of winning. That’s a pretty tall order and is likely to hinge on what extent that fifth of the electorate is suffering from Trump fatigue and whether Democrats nominate someone more appealing, or at least more acceptable than the incumbent. That is the group worth watching; those are the people that might be affected one way or another by the big events of the next 20 months—starting with Mueller.”

###

https://politicalwire.com/2019/03/01/how-mueller-could-add-to-trumps-electoral-woes/

[ScratchCat]

1. Mueller may have some ultimate affect

But Trump would need virtually every single person who voted for him in 2016 to vote for him again, and at the same time, Democrat voters would have to stay home in the millions once again(especially in 4-5 States). The likelihood of this occurring is just not high. There is at least some significant percentage of 2016 Trump voters who are not going to vote for him again, and it is very unlikely he would pick up many "new" votes. That's ultimately the issue - he has to pick up new voters over and above those who wont vote for him again - and still overcome a "wave" of Democrat voters.

[phylny]

2. One small quibble regarding yourpost.

It's "Democratic" voters, not "Democrat" voters.

[Locutusofborg]

3. I don't see "Democrat" voters in the post.

[NewJeffCT]

5. see below

copied the post with Democrat highlighted

But Trump would need virtually every single person who voted for him in 2016 to vote for him again, and at the same time, Democrat voters would have to stay home in the millions once again(especially in 4-5 States). The likelihood of this occurring is just not high. There is at least some significant percentage of 2016 Trump voters who are not going to vote for him again, and it is very unlikely he would pick up many "new" votes. That's ultimately the issue - he has to pick up new voters over and above those who wont vote for him again - and still overcome a "wave" of Democrat voters.

[lindysalsagal]

4. Some of 45's vote was just anti HRC. That's over, so he'll need

To reclaim those votes, as well. They might stay home, vote 3rd party, or switch to dem.

[NewJeffCT]

6. there will be an anti-Democrat vote no matter what

as long as there are open or semi-open primaries/caucuses, there will be Republican or Republican leaning voters that will be attempting to cause trouble for Democrats. Rush Limbaugh has "Operation Chaos" in 2008 and Russia had their influence in 2016

[marylandblue]

7. Whoever the Democrats pick will be subject to a merciless negative campaign

So it's not really that people always hated Hillary(although that didn't.help) but that Trump is so good at negative campaigning. Our standard bearer has to be someone who can counter the avalanche of mud coming our way.

[dalton99a]

8. +1. Trump's lies will be off the charts

[llmart]

9. It's not just Trump being so good at negative campaigning...

it's the entire GOP. They've been doing this for decades. They can't win on their outdated platforms any longer, so they cheat, lie, steal, gerrymander, etc. so they can win.