the title is provocative, but other than the fact that some polls show Romney leading by a few points on the issue of the economy, he trails Obama in almost every national poll and on almost every other issue.
From the piece:
Our updated model, which does factor in polls and markets, still has Obama winning the election with 303 votes.
Yeah, Romney could win, but all signs do not point to his victory. The likeability is a huge factor, but it's not the only one. Obama also leads in favorability and on many key issues.
For example, the NYT poll that showed Obama leading in FL, OH and WI, also showed problems for Mitt on the issue of Medicare and among seniors.
This should have Romney worried:
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* In Florida, 48 percent of seniors say Romney would do a better job on Medicare, versus 44 percent who say that about Obama (the Ryan pick was supposed to be particularly problematic in this state).
* In Ohio, 49 percent of seniors say Romney would do a better job on Medicare, versus 43 percent who say that about Obama.
* In Wisconsin, 49 percent say Obama would do a better job on Medicare, versus 46 percent who say that about Romney. Close.
What’s striking is that the poll also finds very big majorities of seniors in all three states support leaving Medicare as it is, while small minorities support changing it so government provides fixed amounts to spend on insurance. In Florida, it’s 67-24; in Ohio it’s 68-22; and in Wisconsin it’s 60-25. Yet in two of the three states — ones that could decide the presidency — seniors support Romney over Obama on the issue. (A Post poll also found seniors view Ryan favorably by 50-35.)
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/in-florida-and-ohio-seniors-back-romney-over-obama-on-medicare/2012/08/23/acab7ab6-ed50-11e1-9ddc-340d5efb1e9c_blog.htmlThe "better job" numbers should give Romney pause, these are much too close for a traditional GOP voting bloc.
Now polling isn't necessarily going to correlate with election results, but McCain won seniors (65 and older) by eight points in Florida and by 11 points in Ohio. Wisconsin was split.
The numbers for "leaving Medicare as is" represents a
huge opportunity for the Obama campaign. They need to hammer Romney-Ryan on their plan to end Medicare. Shaving a few points off, even to a split, could be disastrous for Romney.
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