The question about impeachment

[edhopper]

and I don't have an answer. Truthfully, no one could.

If there is overwhelming evidence of high crimes and treason by Trump and the House impeaches.
(some, including myself, would say if this is the case, the House must impeach)
Then despite a large majority of voters agreeing he is guilty, the Senate votes against conviction...

Does the electorate see this as a vindication for Trump, or an example of the gross corruption of the GOP Senate?

The answer has a major impact on the 2020 election.

Many say Trump escaping in the Senate would be a blow to the Democrats, but an equally possible scenario is it is another reason for voters to turn against the Republicans.

I could not say which one would result.

[exboyfil]

1. It would be were the evidence leads

While the payoffs were bad, Edwards hung a jury on that prosecution. Just like it is hard to roll up a ganglord, it is even wors if a President is using the same tactics.

[edhopper]

2. And if it is

clear collusion with the Russians and gross financial fraud?

If it is sex trafficking with Epstein?

[exboyfil]

3. Like I said where the evidence will lead

At some point a closed door meeting has to occur between the two parties to discuss alternative. Unless you get on record some commitment from the 20 you need, then you run on their intrasigence.

[Claritie Pixie]

4. Impeachment must not become a weapon for Trump to use in 2020.

The house must investigate, and then, when evidence is in hand, impeach. Not until. I don't see that happening anytime soon.

[edhopper]

5. I agree

but some say that unless conviction in the Senate is assured, they should not impeach.

[beachbum bob]

6. actually if the democrats hold the impeachment hearings correctly and reveal ALL the wrongdoings,

this will blow up in GOP hands in the senate and in the 2020 elections if they either do not hold a trial and/or defend a crooked trump for all to see.

nothing is going to blow up on the democrats UNLESS they turn their back on their duty and not have an impeachment investigation and vote. That will damage democrats and 2020 elections and beyond.

We still have to wait and see what is investigated and uncovered.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

8. Do you think the Senate GOPers will be swayed by evidence of wrongdoings?

The same Senate GOPers who approved Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?

[edhopper]

10. They won't be

but that is the question.
Will the voters see the Senate's failure to hold Trump accountable as a win for Trump or another example how the GOP are corrupt and Trump's Party?

[MH1]

7. Remember we don't have functional mass media anymore.

Everybody is watching "their side" of the news.

If Trump beats impeachment because the Senate fails to convict, how will that be presented on the news media that his voters and potential voters consume? How will it be presented on the media that the persuadable middle consumes?

Therein lies the problem, I think.

When doing risk management, one needs to look at a) probability of the risk occurring; b) the impact if the risk is realized.

Maybe it would go our way. But the risk is fairly high that it wouldn't. And the impact is incalculably huge.

Who wants to see a second term Trump emboldened by the knowledge that he is literally untouchable? (and remember, it isn't really Trump ... it's his puppet-masters; he's just the incredibly useful and well-behaved (for them) puppet.)

[edhopper]

11. That is a big part of the known "unknowns"

on the other hand does inaction on a devastating Mueller Report and indisputable evidence from House investigation show Democrats to be weak and incapable of governing?

[BeyondGeography]

9. Now is the time to investigate, not agonize about outcomes

Pelosi should have kept her misgivings to herself. There was nothing useful about her statement. Trump probably enjoyed it though.

For the record, I fully expect impeachment to die in the Senate if it makes it that far. I'm also very much in favor of pushing for it if a strong case is there (and I think it already is). On the politics, I don't see the failure to confront a criminal President as a winner.

[onenote]

12. The impact of a vote to acquit will vary state to state

just as Trump's popularity varies state by state.

If, as you suggest, "overwhelming" evidence warranting the impeachment and conviction of Trump already exists, one can reasonably ask what difference an acquittal will make in the states where Trump continues to have a positive approval rating today and, even among states where his approval is underwater, where electing a Democrat is generally not in the cards -- states with two Republican Senators and a Republican governor. It could matter in swing states, but predicting how much it motivates his supporters in those states and how much it motivates those who already view him unfavorably is impossible until the scenario plays out. Could go either way.