Lawrence O'Donnell: It's a political myth that the Clinton impeachment hurt Republicans

[iluvtennis]

@Lawrence, 26m26 minutes ago

House Republicans impeached Bill Clinton.

Then Republicans won the House again in next election.

And Republicans won the Senate again.

And Republicans won the White House.

It’s a political myth that the Clinton impeachment hurt Republicans.

Link to tweet

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I agree with Lawrence. Impeachment hearings on obstruction of justice should begin immediately.

[FakeNoose]

1. And that WAS a witch hunt!

[uponit7771]

4. +1, Nearly 70% of the public thought it was bullshit and it was !!

[radius777]

8. Bill would've won re-election in a landslide

if there were no term limits.

Gore would've won easily had he not distanced himself from Bill.

[uponit7771]

9. True, I think Gore distanced himself in part because of Clinton impeachment. Clinton's honesty ...

... numbers were in the dumps at the time of 2000 election but the economy was riding high

[uponit7771]

2. K&R, I thought the republicans lost the house that midterm !! What the hell are people talking about

... about outside of Clinton's popularity polls !?!

Yep, a bunch of FUD on this issue

[standingtall]

3. He is correct

nt

[Dennis Donovan]

5. But they didn't "win" the WH - SCOTUS gave it to them...

...however, I seem to recall the refrain of "Clinton Fatigue" coming from the cable news nets during the run up of the 2000 election, which was referring to the 24-7 news media's coverage of everything Lewinsky/Starr/Whitewater, etc. I think we should check the present clown in the WH at every turn, *REMIND* voters of it at every turn, and let him lose in a landslide in 2020.

I have to admit, though, that what was laid out in the redacted Mueller Rpt is beyond sufficient enough to bring articles of impeachment. If we don't have *some* repigs on our side, impeachment is kabuki theatre.

[dubyadiprecession]

6. Democrats did gain seats in Congress in 1998.

It was an unusual mid term for President Clinton. Political parties of sitting presidents generally lose seats in those elections.
There just wasn’t enough outrage for Democrats to take either house.

[uponit7771]

7. They gained seats but not control of either house, I thought they gained control of one of the house

.. houses.

Now I know republicans kept control I don't see a downside to impeachment

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Situation was hardly the same

Clinton was impeached midway through his second term. Impeachment finished in February 1999. There was plenty of time for dozens of variables to intervene before the 2000 election. And the out party historically has an edge after 8 years of its opponent holding the White House.

IMO, impeachment this time was viable from mid 2017 through early 2018. You can get a sense of the mood of the moment by those Tom Steyer commercials and when they appeared. That was late 2017, if I remember correctly. Trump's approval was in the 35-37% range consensus with some numbers dipping into the low 30s. If Democrats held the House at that point the nation would have been accepting of impeachment proceedings.

Much earlier in 2017 Nate Silver wrote a lengthy article about potential impeachment, noting the odds on Betfair and elsewhere. That link is here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chance-donald-trump-impeached/

Silver wrote: "But people putting money on the line are taking impeachment seriously. According to the prediction market Betfair, the chance that Trump will fail to serve out his four-year term is about 50 percent (!). There’s even a 20 to 25 percent probability (!!) that Trump doesn’t finish out 2017 in office, these bettors reckon."

As I was posting here and elsewhere, those odds were nonsense. Even gamblers have a tendency to overreact to day to day crap and ignore the big picture. I made money on those 2017 markets at the time. I also have futures that Trump will serve out his full term. But Nate's quote gives an indication of what the thinking was. The current odds on Predictit are 76/24 No regarding impeachment during this term, and 90/10 that Trump will be president at the end of 2019. I still think those are bad odds but they are not as ridiculous as the 2017 versions, when the GOP held the House.

If we impeach now, the timetable gets too close to 2020 and also the Democratic debates beginning this summer. Anything said has potential repercussions next year. Very risky to possibly hand an incumbent additional advantages. Obviously we are running against the same guy who would be impeached, and not a protege like 2000, when Clinton would have cruised to a third term if allowed.

[Poiuyt]

11. Why Impeaching Trump Is 'Worth It'

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/13/opinion/clinton-impeachment-republicans-trump.html?register=email&auth=register-email

snip-

Furthermore, in the fall of 1998, at the first opportunity for voters to express their feelings at the ballot box after the House voted to begin an impeachment inquiry, the Democrats picked up five seats in the House of Representatives, an embarrassment that drove Newt Gingrich from the speaker’s office.

But consider what followed.

First, the Republicans went on to take or hold the White House in three of the next five presidential elections — including the 2016 race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

And while Democrats did gain a handful of House seats in midterm elections in 1998, the Republicans maintained control for eight more years, until disapproval of the Iraq war finally tipped Congress to the Democrats in 2006.

On the Senate side in 1998, the Republicans maintained their 55-45 majority. With the exception of a 17-month window in 2002 and 2003, Republicans controlled the Senate until 2006. In short, the Republican wave of 1994 endured for nearly a decade after the failed impeachment.

It’s true that Mr. Clinton was not removed from office, but Republicans used the fact of his impeachment as a cudgel first against his vice president, Al Gore, and later against his wife. While its impact can’t be quantified, it sure didn’t help either in their election bids.

Finally, and most important, the very myth that the 1998 impeachment hurt Republicans protects them today, when pressure to move against Mr. Trump is met with concerns about the political fallout. Clearly, we need to reconsider that myth.

[Solomon]

12. Release the Kracken!

Impeach the #ucker! Now!