A ground war in Iran would make the Iraq War look like a pushy-pushy on a playground.

[Aristus]

Iran is three times the size of Iraq, and half the country is studded with tall, rugged mountains. The teenage religious fanatics of the Iran-Iraq War are long gone, and mostly-professional soldiers have taken their place.

We're in for a nasty time of it, just because Trump wants to divert attention away from collusion...

[ChicagoRonin]

1. They also have the benefit of history

I'm sure the Iranian military has spent a lot of time studying how the US performed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and have a wealth of knowledge of deficiencies in American tactics and training. I'm not saying the US military is weak by any stretch, but every force has vulnerabilities that can be exploited.

[maryellen99]

2. and trump will use nukes for this nt

[MineralMan]

4. No, he will not.

What gives you the idea that he would?

[maryellen99]

5. For his evangelical end timer base

Don’t forget Pompeo is an end timer. Plus trump is stupid enough to do it.

[MineralMan]

7. That doesn't matter. Use of nuclear weapons in such

circumstances would result in immediate impeachment and removal. As stupid as Donald Trump is, he knows that.

The United States is the only nation ever to use nuclear weapons against another country. That doesn't mean that we'll do it again. A preemptive nuclear strike would be universally seen as unconscionable by the UN and the US would be roundly and properly condemned for it.

It's not going to happen.

[Rambling Man]

24. Do you really believe that?

His base would eat that shit up like a starving dog slurping up a pot of half-rotten pinto beans. If it punishes brown people, he'll get a definite boost.

Impeachment and removal? As if. No one will go there. He can grab pussies willy nilly and shoot a crowd of people in the middle of Fifth Avenue and NO ONE WILL DO JACK SHIT.

They don't have to use full-scale ICBMs and create a "The Day After" scenario. Hell, they can decimate and destabilize the region even further without the use of nuclear weapons. And there's lots of different types of nuclear weapons. Precise, short-range ones that don't level cities. Stuff we'll never hear about unless it creeps out through independent media or European media sources.

Trump and the GOP do whatever they want, whenever they want and live in a consequence-free world.

If you let the coyotes keep eating your chickens, you won't have any chickens left.

[MineralMan]

25. Yes, I do, and you have not offered anything to convince me otherwise.

[rampartc]

26. trump wants to use nuclear weapons

and seems not to understand the consequences.

his evangelicals would put him somewhere in the holy trinity, nevertheless, i think cooler heads will prevail.

[Xolodno]

17. Well...that could trigger WWIII...

...the fallout could go north into Russia, pretty sure they would have a problem with that. Hell, NATO would probably disband if we nuked a nation.


Doubt it would happen, I think our own generals would rather stage a coup than let the idiot in office force every nation in the world to turn against us.

[karynnj]

11. I doubt it

There is a large military presence in both Iraq and Afghanistan, which both border Iran. You can't pinpoint the impact of nukes to keep our own military safe. Not to mention, they .. and Israel will be targets number one and two in retaliation.

When Obama was President, Netanyahu and some Sunni leaders pressured him to bomb the Iranian nuclear sites. Netanyahu also proposed the Israel military do it, but the Israeli military blocked that.

The Iran nuclear deal prevented a very likely war, which was easier to argue when you could argue that they were 2 months from Iran having a nuclear weapon. In spite of Trump's pull out, Iran has not violated their side of the deal. This is clearly disappointing Trump and people like Bolton. This has led them to blame John Kerry - claiming he gave Iran the strategy of staying in the deal hoping that a Democrat wins in 2020 AND giving the Europeans, Russia and China the strategy of themselves staying in the deal. On twitter, this has gone so far as accusing Kerry of having gone to Iran (which he didn't).

Now, no one would ever suggest that I have understated John Kerry's accomplishments or diplomatic prowess, but nothing above needed ANYONE to come up with this very obvious "strategy". What really happened is that NO ONE FOLLOWED TRUMP.

What now seems to be happening is that as pulling out a year ago did not provoke some obvious provocation on Iran's part, that Trump, Netanyahu and MBS would have used to argue the world needs to attack Iran, the US is now trying to provoke Iran. Hopefully, they will hear our right wing -- and take the strategy of waiting out Trump - no matter what he does. If we can get to a Democrat being sworn in in January 2021 without a war, it is very likely there won't be one.

In fact, a Democratic President might be able to couple ending the Yemen war and reinstating the nuclear deal and possibly ending any nuclear power from the US to Saudi Arabia.

[Kaleva]

3. Does anyone here believe John Bolton tells the truth?

[safeinOhio]

6. The US and England installed the Sha.

They have a very good reason to dislike us.

[BlueTsunami2018]

8. We wouldn't win a ground war in Iran.

Unlike Iraq which was pretty much a joke, Iran actually has a real army with real soldiers. They’d sink our ships in the gulf and fight as hard as anyone we’ve ever fought on the ground. It would be a disaster and a bloodbath.

[A DAY IN THE LIFE]

12. Iran chosing to fight a conventional ground war

would be a losing strategy. The US military would love that. Their "real soldiers" would not be able to stand up to US forces. Within a day the US would have air superiority. Within a week the Iranian navy would be gone. US forces would force these real soldiers into the mountains and cities. Then we are screwed. The US military is built to fight Russia. We expect front lines, secure rear areas, uninterupted supply lines.

[denbot]

15. I've plowed the Straights..

We’ll have the air, and with the exception of a hand full of small deadly missile boats we’ll also have the surface.

The on the Iranian side the Straights have canyons along with being cave riddled, many large enough to hide surface to surface anti-ship missiles and artillery.

I doubt if we could get a lumbering super tanker through in less than six months..

World wide depression anyone?

[stopdiggin]

9. saber rattling

saber rattling (at least my fervent hope).
To the extent that this admin actually HAS a foreign policy .. we have to distract from the fact that Trump is getting absolutely punked by N.Korea.

(and you can also add: a 90 minute chat with our dearest pal Putin, open disdain/distaste from Great Britain for proposed state visit, a vetoed congressional resolution on the Yemen war, continued lost ground and lives in Afghanistan, a laughable and disgusting public capitulation on a brutal diplomatic murder at the hands of Kushner's handler MBS, public rebuke on trade policy, again such as it is, from GOP senators ... Just so much winning ...)

[Vinca]

10. Trump doesn't care. They're scripting the next season of the show and war is the opener.

If your kid happens to die, he doesn't particularly mind because it's not him.

[walkingman]

13. I don't believe a thing this administration says about anything. I think as the noose tightens

on Trump he will start a war - the ultimate distraction.

[hack89]

14. If there is war it will not be a ground war

We can destroy their economy and military from the air and sea.

[albacore]

16. I think you are right. But...

It's not gonna be Iraq. The Iranians have bought a lot of good weapons...Russian and Chinese. AA missiles... anti-ship missiles....

We will probably win conventionally, but how many American casualties?

If they get lucky and scrag a US carrier, the propaganda victory is theirs.

We haven't "won" a war since 1945.

[hack89]

21. Iraq had a much more extensive air defense system during Desert Storm

It was state of the art, integrated and redundant. And we took it down in a day. Iran has a few modern systems but most are older systems.

Taking down air defense systems is basic math. If they can engage x number of targets then you shoot x + missiles at them. We can overwhelm their defenses with pure firepower.

[hack89]

22. Perhaps we didn't "win" Iraq

But that was because there never was a military solution. But the invasion and capture of Bagdad by 3 divisions was a feat unparalleled in military history. We have proven military capabilities no other nation has.

[Xolodno]

18. We would probably wipe out their navy and air-force in short order...

...it would take a bit of time to knock out their SAM sites, and they will inflict casualties on our air capabilities which will make Iraq and the Balkans look like a fart in the wind.

Then there is the question that is the sound of a record player needle scratching across the album. How do we invade? Iraq and Afghanistan are not likely to allow it. An amphibious assault will result in high losses.

And then of course, we could wipe out their military producing factories....and the arms will still keep coming. Russia will dump military hardware and send advisers gleefully. Add to that, they will also set up one time use SAM sites. Sure, we'll have air superiority, but unlike every where else, our planes and choppers will still take hits from the ground.

And lets address the elephant in the room. We can't win the peace. As much as the populace hates the theocracy, they despise us even more....nor can I blame them. We screwed them over pretty badly.

[roamer65]

19. World War III

Attacking Iran would be the start of it.

[Rhiannon12866]

20. Exactly!

The country is three times as populous as well - and these fighters are serious and believe in a glorious afterlife. Trump has no clue...

[Renew Deal]

23. That's not happening

You would need an army in the Middle East to do it and there aren’t nearly enough people right now to do it.

[watoos]

27. The #1 reason that Trump won't invade Iran is Russia.

Russia wants the completion on an Iran/Iraq gas pipeline that runs through Syria and into Europe.

Trump will have to pick another country to invade.