General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAn early election guide-- which states will or won't matter...
Lets begin with the Electoral College foundation on which each candidate will build. A very conservative assessment gives Obama a base of 201 electoral votes, and Romney 181. These numbers exclude one statePennsylvania, with 20 electoral votesthat most observers are putting in Obamas column, and one stateMissouri (10)that is likely to go for Romney. Factoring in these probable outcomes, Obamas base rises to 221 electoral votes, Romneys to 191.
The next tier contains three states that Romney must win and two more that Obama must hold. The Romney 3 are Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Ohio (18), in each of which Obamas share of the popular vote in 2008 was well below his national share. No Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio, and Romney is unlikely to be the first. Theres no road to 270 electoral votes for the Republican ticket that doesnt run through Florida. And losing North Carolina, which Obama won by only 0.3 percent, would force Romney to flip a major Midwestern state where Obama won by a much greater margin.
Lets look more closely at Ohio. During the past five presidential elections, the Democratic candidates share of the states vote has trailed his national share by an average of 1.3 percentage points. 2008 was no exception: Obama received 52.9 percent of the national vote, versus only 51.4 percent in Ohio. But so far, 2012 looks different: the six most recent Ohio surveys give Obama an average of 47.2 percent of the vote0.7 points more than his national share. Relative to the historical benchmark, then, Obama is outperforming in Ohio by two percentage pointsenough to win the state even if the national vote is very closely divided.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/106519/early-electoral-college-guide-which-states-matter-which-states-dont
NightWatcher
(39,343 posts)The problem down here for Mitt is there are lots of old people, women, and minorities. It was just last week that I saw my first and damn near only Romney bumpersticker while two of my neighbors already have their Obama stickers and another neighbor never took their 08 sticker off.
mainstreetonce
(4,178 posts)I see constant Romney ads and very few Obama ads. Does that mean team Obama is not worried about PA or is it just that Romney has more money?
Hopefully Obama is saving for an Oct. Blitz.