Laurence Tribe has an issue with don't impeach, imprison

[BeyondGeography]

Link to tweet

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Good point - but I don't see Trump resigning for a pardon even though it would be

a clever tactical move. I can more easily imagine him declaring the election invalid and refusing to leave. Of course, he'd also declare a conviction following impeachment invalid and refuse to leave.

And if the Manhattan DA is after him, he's screwed anyhow because he can't be pardoned for whatever they charge him with.

[BeyondGeography]

11. Trump will never serve a day in prison

The SDNY case will be tied up for years, and there are no shortage of plea bargain scenarios. Trump will spend the rest of his days sunning in heroic splendor in Florida as the Caudillo de Mar a Lago, as Charles Pierce calls him.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

13. You're probably right.

SDNY, which is federal and pardonable, isn't the same as the Manhattan DA, which is state and is not - and Barr can't interfere with it. Still, for political reasons he probably won't ever be prosecuted. I would be reasonably satisfied, though, if he just goes away and we never hear from or about him again.

[BeyondGeography]

21. Thanks for pointing that out; I imagine the state will handle all the fraud

ie the hidden transfers from Dad, the mountains of falsified loan and insurance docs, etc. But this was all going on for decades and the state either turned a blind eye to it or worse, so one could easily see massive fines and/or asset forfeiture in lieu of nonpayment being the remedy, and the whole taking many years to play out.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

22. I suspect they turned a blind eye because they knew Trump would fight everything

just as he is now, and they didn't have the resources to litigate all of his crap. Also, at least for a while, he was a big celebrity in NY and probably had friends in high places, as well as low ones like the mob. NYC government hasn't always been squeaky-clean, either.

[BeyondGeography]

23. I'm from NY and the closest thing we ever had to a white knight

in city govt when Trump was in town was Rudolph Giuliani.

Sad.

[lark]

2. Tribe has a totally excellent and salient point.

Nancy needs to think some more about this and start an Impeachment Inquiry that fuckface won't be able to stonewall. Even Russian Repug SCOTUS would have hard time ruling against Congress on this. And if they do, we will know for sure that our country is being killed and turned fascist and can take appropriate action to protect ourselves.

[wryter2000]

9. He'd stonewall impeachment hearings

He has no shame. He'd refuse to comply with court orders. Impeachment doesn't change that.

[lark]

12. Not talking sbout him, talking about the courts.

This is included in the Constitution so courts (unless headed by a total loon) would side with Congress because otherwise they'd be breaking the Constitution and they don't want to do that. I think even SCOTUS with it's majority Russian Repugs would be hard pressed to absolutely destroy the constitution by ruling brazenly against it.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

14. I wonder what would happen if he defied an order of the Supreme Court?

He'd do it, too.

[wryter2000]

16. Courts are already required to cooperate with Congress

And at least two already have.

That’s not to say we shouldn’t impeach, but impeachment is no magic wand that will make Republicans behave.

[lark]

20. It and the truth of drumpfs treason and criminality are all we have.

if truth is hidden, which it has been successfully so far, Impeachment is our only tool - the ONLY one that has any possibility of moving the needle.

[Nevermypresident]

26. Furthermore, one of the most important benefits to an Impeachment investigation in the House is

to educate voters prior to the 2020 election.

As far as donnie little hands and his cronies are concerned, expect the absolute worst case response from them and develop our strategy (like educating voters and taking control of the narrative) accordingly.

Putting all our eggs in one basket regarding the 2020 election is wrong, IMO. Let's do both.

[UniteFightBack]

3. The same thing will happen with impeachment. nt

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

5. Ford pardoned Nixon and it cost him the '76 election.

Would Pence, who obviously wants very much to be president, risk the same fate, especially knowing that the Manhattan DA will be waiting in the wings to find Manafort a new roommate at Rikers?

[jberryhill]

15. The proposed timeline is 11/2020 after a Trump electoral loss

It is:

1. Trump loses.
2. Trump resigns.
3. Pence pardons Trump.
4. Democratic winner takes office.

So, when would Pence be running for president? 2024?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

18. Yes, I guess that wasn't clear.

Pence really, really wants to be president, and although he has the charisma of a wet mop and probably wouldn't win anyhow, he'd certainly try for it even if he had to wait for 2024. The whole scenario is pretty unlikely, though, because it assumes Trump would resign and I don't think his ego would let him do that.

[Celerity]

17. Under this scenario (Rump trounced in 2020, then resigns sometime between then & January 20th, 2021)

Pence would be looking at 2024 as his only path to POTUS, as 2020 is already done and dusted. If he didn't pardon Rump after he resigned, then tens of millions of MAGA thugs would viciously turn on Pence the next election's primaries. Even if Rump didn't resign, I see little to no chance that Pence would be the 2024 Rethug nominee. He is utterly devoid of charisma, he doesn't have the 'it' needed to capture enough primary Rethug votes.

The Rethug who truly scares me (after Rump has left the stage in one manner or another) is Tom Cotton. He is extremely intelligent (double Harvard degrees, including his J.D.), a commanding physical presence (a legit 6 feet, 5 inches tall), is ruthless as fuck, a multiple-toured combat veteran, a radical fundie, and has the needed Rethug-style charisma and speaking ability needed to win the primaries.

[qazplm135]

24. yes he would

because it would instantly endear him to Trump voters.

[unblock]

4. with all due respect to tribe, the same thing could happen with impeachment

unless the senate vote to convict comes as a complete shocker surprise, the republican senate leadership will know damn well how it's going to come out.

so much so that if they thought it was going to happen, they'd go the nixon route and just convince him to resign, exactly so pence could pardon him, and to spare the republican party the damage that an actual impeachment conviction and removal would do.

even if he didn't go for that, all mcturtle has to do is call make sure senators vote so that enough have voted to convict first. then, before the voting is complete (he can delay the last senator voting for a while), that's when they get him to resign, as at that point they know he's only got minutes left in his presidency. and again, pence pardons him.


more than likely, if he's actually faces any criminal liability, it would be at the state level.

that is, unless we can convince pence that any pardon of donald fraud would be taken as part of a conspiracy or bribery or obstruction of justice....

[Hortensis]

6. Pelosi never said she did not want to impeach.

Of course she does. She was saying she wanted much more.

Btw, even in this stretchy scenario Pence couldn't pardon Trump's crimes under state laws.

But no matter what it has to be "IT'S THE ELECTION, STUPID" because OUR DEMOCRACY IS AT STAKE. Any actions taken must not empower the Republicans to reelect Trump and keep the senate, perhaps even retake the house.

[wryter2000]

8. You are so right

Everything, everything we do must be in service of denying him four more years.

[Hortensis]

19. Willingness to fail the duty we're called to would be anything but moral.

Our job is to succeed.

[wryter2000]

7. Agreed

However, there are also State of New York cases against him.

At this point, given who's in charge of the DOJ, my faith is more with MY.

[panader0]

10. I like seeing the words Trump and prison in the same sentence.

Nancy planted a seed and I'll bet Trump is apoplectic about it.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

25. I especially like Trump and Rikers Island together.

Maybe he could share a cell with Manafort.