Extraordinary thread on conservatives and US climate policy in the coming years

[swag]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1143616413694775297.html

David Roberts @drvox

Excerpt:

1. I'm gonna write a proper piece about this soon, but for now a quick thread on the direction of US conservative climate policy. I think over the next 10 years -- & probably much sooner -- we'll see two distinct trends.

2. First, the US right will transition seamlessly from climate denialism to climate nationalism/fascism. They will acknowledge the threat & use it to justify exploiting US fossil fuel reserves, building walls, shutting down immigration, & passing punitive trade policies.

3. Collective action problems just don't sit well in the reactionary mind -- and non-zero-sum collective solutions are incomprehensible to it. However, a mad scramble of all-against-all, in which the powerful US can hoard & intimidate & come out ahead? That, reactionaries get.

4. Second, US conservatives will ramp up their demagoguery around "eco-terrorism." As it becomes clear that the GOP simply won't allow a small-d democratic solution, desperate young people are going to turn to direct action. The GOP will use that to justify repression.

5. And be clear: as climate gets more & more chaotic, and the ambient sense of threat & uncertainty rises around the world, these kinds of reactionary responses will gain *more* public appeal, not less. Threat & uncertainty make everyone more conservative.

. . . more

[swag]

1. The Oregon situation

. . .

7. That's why the situation in Oregon is freaking me out. I thought we had at least a little time left in which the mechanisms of democracy could still work. But the fossil-funded white minority is openly, nakedly rejecting democracy & it looks like they'll get away with it.

8. The right will see that it worked & it will rapidly become standard practice, across states, maybe federally. (If you think the rules are different in different states, so it wouldn't work, you are still hung up on thinking rules matter.)

9. That would mean the end of any chance of the US addressing climate change through peaceful, mutually beneficial, democratic means. Oregon Ds elected majorities, then super-majorities ... now they're supposed to accept that success is only possible if they vote EVERY R out?

[swag]

2. his conclusion

10. If democratic means become impossible, what's left is violence. There may be some radical climate activists who think they're ready for that, but guess what? The reactionaries will always have more guns & fewer scruples. The forces of decency will never win that fight.

11. Basically, this is future-of-the-species stuff, getting decided through a spectacle that's barely even able to break into the daily news cycle. And the next time around, there may not even be the pretense of democracy. We are truly headed into the shit.

[tblue37]

3. K&R for visibility. nt

[Moostache]

4. We are a matter of a few years (MAYBE) from witnessing horrors of WWII on crack...

1) Climate change is real, here now, been here for over a decade in critical territory and now beyond hope of reversing or stopping (too much CO2 already in the atmosphere to prevent it)...

2) Politics are broken in USA and around the Western world like no time since the pre-WWII days...

3) Refugees and migration are ALREADY HUGE issues with voters and governments around Europe (Brexit, slowing migration across the Mediterranean) and the USA (Border wall, Trumpism, fuckers caging children and torturing them) and the actions to dehumanize the "others" is well underway...

4) When the time comes, India and Pakistan WILL use nukes on each other. Others with weapons and grievances may follow suit in Korea, Middle East (Israel and Iran? Saudis and Iran?), China and Hong Kong? May seem off the deep end...but so did Trump in the first place...

5) When whole populations are vilified and other populations conditioned to see them as "Others" or "subhumans", mass killings, pogroms and genocide become the coin of the realm...

6) Standing in front of the train is easier NOW, before it is at full-speed than it will ever be again...yet we cannot even start impeachment hearings against an unindicted Defendant 1? We can't stop torture and imprisonment in concentration camps of BABIES (been going on for over a year since the first round of protests died down and now its way worse)...

7) The post-war era (1945-2016) is OVER. The tumult of the present day is the cauldron that will forge the next epoch. The choices made NOW will determine how bad things ultimately get and how many BILLIONS die.

Civilization stands on a knife's edge and yet, most people remain blissfully unaware or unfazed by it. I used to believe it would happen after I died. I no longer believe that...

This is the worst time in human history to have the most powerful nation lead by an emotionally crippled retard, yet here we sit. It is going to be ugly.