The Southern Path to a Democratic Win in 2020

[turbinetree]

July 19, 2019 | pppadmin

The lion’s share of discussion about the states Democrats need to win to take back the White House in 2020 has focused on the trio of Midwestern states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Those states do indeed present the clearest path to 270 electoral votes and our early polling has found that Democrats are well positioned in them. But new PPP surveys in a pair of states- Georgia and North Carolina- that combined have only voted Democratic for President once in the last 27 years- show a possible backup plan to victory in the South as well.

Trump is underwater in both Georgia (which he won by 5 points in 2016) and North Carolina (which he won by 4 points in 2016.) In Georgia 45% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 49% who disapprove and in North Carolina 46% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 48% who disapprove. In Georgia Trump trails a generic Democrat for reelection 50-46, and in North Carolina Trump trails a generic Democrat for reelection 49-44. We wouldn’t go so far as to say Trump is an underdog based on these numbers- Democrats may very well end up with a candidate who’s not as strong as Good Old Generic- but we see them as toss ups if Trump remains as unpopular as he is right now.

Even though Georgia hasn’t voted Democratic for President since 1992 and North Carolina has only voted Democratic for President once since 1976 (2008) it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that either of these states is looking competitive for next year.

In 2008 Georgia voted for John McCain by 5 points as Barack Obama won the popular vote nationally by 7 points, thus voting 12 points to the right of the country. In 2016 Georgia voted for Donald Trump by 5 points as Hillary Clinton won the popular vote nationally by 2 points, thus voting only 7 points to the right of the country. That trend of Georgia becoming increasingly purple relative to the rest of the country continued last year when Stacey Abrams lost the Governor’s race by only a point.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/the-southern-path-to-a-democratic-win-in-2020/

Georgia:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/GeorgiaResults.pdf

North Carolina:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/NorthCarolinaResults.pdf

[TheRealNorth]

1. I still think the Upper Midwest is the safer path to 270

Flip back PA, MI - you don't even need WI if you hold onto NH, VA, and the rest. Adding PA + MI while holding the rest that Hillary won would give us 272.

That being said, I have no problem throwing some money toward GA and NC - especially if there competitive Senate and House seats that could be boosted by anti-Republican messaging.

But, ignoring the Midwest kind of feeds into the inferiority complex some people have here of being "fly over" country.

ADDED: Plus, if there was any place Republicans could get away with election fraud, Georgia and North Carolina (along with Florida) would top the list.

[Wounded Bear]

3. Perhaps we can do both...

[Hoyt]

2. Where I live in South, trump's low disapproval is because he hasn't deported enough Hispanics and

harmed other minorities, bombed Iran and NK, totally dismantled ACA, etc. They’ll still pull lever for trump.