How Trump could lose by 5 million votes and still win in 2020

[Cattledog]

By David Wasserman

In the wake of President Donald Trump's tweets suggesting several nonwhite progressive congresswomen "go back" to their countries — three of them were born in the U.S. — it's tempting for Democrats to believe the comments will backfire with an increasingly diverse electorate and seriously damage his re-election prospects.

But the cold reality for Democrats? The bulk of the nation's demographic transformation is taking place in states that matter the least in deciding the Electoral College.

Democrats' worst nightmare came true in November 2016 when Hillary Clinton captured 2.9 million more votes than Donald Trump but he still comfortably prevailed in the Electoral College, 306 to 232. As much as they would like to purge that outcome from memory, Democrats would be unwise to write it off as a fluke: In 2020, it's possible Trump could win 5 million fewer votes than his opponent — and still win a second term.


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/how-trump-could-lose-5-million-votes-still-win-2020-n1031601?fbclid=IwAR2F2PiZCzunLnmnBz6I54TAImo1aiQjaG02i18i0YKsaYVzcffXGdgAiIw

[LisaM]

1. The answer is to move new tech jobs out of blue states and into small, red ones.

There have been alarming articles lately that in some number of years, the population will be mostly clustered in 25 cities. I don't think this is a good thing, actually, and the electoral college imbalance and disproportionate representation is one of the many consequences of doing this.

Places like Wyoming, Montana, and North Dakota (all of which have some nice, liveable college towns and some spectacular natural beauty) could all use a population boost.

Of course, it would be nice if the tech companies didn't have such demand lists for locating in a place - those states need a tax base and to retain their affordable cost of living - so I don't see this happening, but it sure would solve a lot of problems.

[Caliman73]

3. I think the answer is to have states pledge their EC votes to the winner of the state popular vote.

That eliminates gerrymandering. Yes I know it also gives less power to rural areas, but hey, they are rural for a reason, because no one wants to live there.

It has never been fair to have 2 million people who live in a city have their representation decided by 100,000 people who live in 10 neighboring districts that have reps based on arbitrary lines.

[former9thward]

12. Gerrymandering has nothing to do with presidential constests.

Or US Senate contests which are statewide. Gerrymandering only affects US Congressional races. As far as your smear against rural areas where "no one wants to live there" --- they feed you. I defy you to feed yourself based on the food produced within your city limits.

[Caliman73]

18. True to the first. My mistake. The second issue well numbers speak.

Also, I would gladly take you up on your challenge given that city I live in is one of the higher producing agricultural centers in California.

I will certainly admit when I am wrong, which I definitely was about gerrymandering and national elections.

[Blue_true]

27. We import a lot of food in cities. It is possible to feed cities on imports,

and get rid of farm support money and other money thrown at farmers. We could easily import Canadian milk and milk products and likely be healthier.

Having said that, we can and should move more high tech jobs into rural parts of the country to balance economies in those places. A lot of jobs in design and software don't require a presence in a high tech hotbed, all they require is the skills to do the job.

Moving such jobs around to less populated places would reduce the pressure on rents in hightech hotbeds and it would bring needed revenue and young people to the less populated areas. The process would work well as long as companies don't abuse it to play places desperate for jobs off eachother and drive down wages everywhere.

[Captain Stern]

17. That is the answer..if the question is "How do we keep things exactly the same as they are?"

Pretty much all of the states already give all of their electoral college votes to whichever candidate won the most popular votes in the state. Maine, and I think Nebraska do a split..but that's pretty much it.

Gerrymandering and/or rural voters have nothing to do with it.

In my opinion, your post wasn't very well thought out.

[Caliman73]

23. Yep. True. I was wrong.

it was not thought out,

[msongs]

7. we could strategically move half million from CA and take over a bunch of red states nt

[LisaM]

25. Well, if all the new high-paying tech jobs keep going to the same few cities...

things will not stay the same, they'll get worse.

I admit that I live in Seattle (I am not a tech worker). When I moved here late 80s, early 90s, it was because of a relationship (that I'm still in), but if I were entering the workforce NOW, I'd probably opt for living in a purple state, in one of the college towns or cities. Somewhere like Madison or Detroit or St. Louis, possibly North Carolina.

[brandnewday2009]

2. Attention must be paid!

Don't hand Shitler another victory!

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. Does this article provide any hopeful news or strategies for overcoming this?

Or is just more anxiety-provoking doom and gloom that, frankly, there's too much of IMHO?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. Also, I don't think anybody expects 2020 to be easy

so, people can stop talking about "complacency", which I'm sort of sick of hearing about.

[Thekaspervote]

20. Agree! Isn't fear based politics what the dotard and the gopeee do?!

[Wounded Bear]

6. Basically just says don't get complacent...

GOTV, and expand the base a bit. The national vote total is kind of meaningless, we just have to prevent Trump 'winning' by a few thousand votes in a couple of states.

2018 helped, because it showed some enthusiasm, especially among women and POC. We have to build on that.

[BigmanPigman]

8. We will need a 12% lead just to counteract the cheating

that Russia and GOP will continue to do (it is their MO) as well as the stupidity/cult factor.

[CousinIT]

9. Answer: GET RID OF THE EC or otherwise ensure that it does not apply

MORE: https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

[colsohlibgal]

10. No Doubt

The Electoral College is ridiculous, a relic from the Civil War.....you can get millions more votes and lose??

We have paid dearly because of this, it has brought about the unnecessary Iraq War and the ridiculous Orange Crook we have now.

We don’t do this in State elections. Here in Ohio the bulk of the people are in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, and a couple other big Cities/Counties. One person one vote though is the deal.

The American Presidential Election is the only one I know of where you can win but then lose because of this scam. Enough.

[doc03]

16. The Electorial College was intended to prevent

the people from putting someone like Trump in office.
The electors voted for party over country.

[msongs]

11. and voter distribution skews the makeup of the senate. repubs should have only 1/3 or less

of the senate based on population

[onecaliberal]

13. Second article on this subject. It's the new right wing talking point.

[evertonfc]

14. We're ok

We lost a few crucial states by very small amounts. This, in a low turnout election with ( to be fair) a candidate that had been. defined for 25 years and had high negatives. A good candidate and relatively good GOTV and we win. Its only been one cycle since Obama won easily.

[Dan]

15. Curious, if this happened,

how does he plan to govern a diverse nation with the division he has created?

[DFW]

22. Simple answer? He doesn't intend to govern the nation at all

He will just sign things his right wing puppetmasters serve up to him, and spend the rest of his time playing golf (and leaving us with the bill), and organizing literal ego-trips.

Just like in his current term.

[farmbo]

19. This Cherry Picker needs to analyze Trumps actual approval numbers

He’s under water in all but the Agricultural Midwest and the Dixie states.Three years of broken promises, a culture of corruption, and rampant stupidity have begun to leave their mark.
According to the July 3 Morning Consult poll, Trump numbers have tanked:
Ohio -7
Wisconsin-14
Michigan-15
Iowa-12
Arizona -7

More important, new Democratic majorities in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, will bring fairer elections and honest vote counting in those states, unlike 2016.

If we get out the votes, we win. Buy a landslide.

[Thekaspervote]

21. Thx for sharing...helps keep thing in perspective.. rather than just spreading fear

[Corgigal]

24. Sure, anything is possible

however, did Trump actually win the last election?

Let's start there.

[W_HAMILTON]

26. He'll lose the popular vote by more than that.

And he will lose the Electoral College.

[Gothmog]

28. Most POTUS are re-elected unless economy tanks

We have to nominate an electable candidate if sanders is the nominee, I believe that trump could win 45+ states