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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsDonald Trump will lose the 2020 election
Donald Trump will lose the 2020 election
Pollsters famously got the 2016 presidential election wrong. HuffPost, for example, listed Hillary Clintons chances of winning at 99 percent right up until the race was called for Donald Trump.
Data experts have tried to learn from that epic fail -- and one has proven especially successful, so far. Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginias Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)
Now Bitecofer says that same model, which she says departs significantly from well-known data site FiveThirtyEights approach, makes clear that Donald Trump will not win reelection next year.
Pollsters famously got the 2016 presidential election wrong. HuffPost, for example, listed Hillary Clintons chances of winning at 99 percent right up until the race was called for Donald Trump.
Data experts have tried to learn from that epic fail -- and one has proven especially successful, so far. Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginias Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)
Now Bitecofer says that same model, which she says departs significantly from well-known data site FiveThirtyEights approach, makes clear that Donald Trump will not win reelection next year.
So what do you all think. I find myself grasping at any positive news.
https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2019/07/donald-trump-will-lose-the-2020-election-concludes-unique-prediction-model-that-nailed-2018-midterm-results.html?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=theoregonian_sf&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR2OFHTJGYo_5A26BoaDWC2ca9N61s2lCf_oZEMzuPvk6xZIa06TQ1EOurs
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Donald Trump will lose the 2020 election (Original Post)
fleabiscuit
Jul 2019
OP
Taking it with a grain of salt until the last state is called on election night.
Tiggeroshii
Jul 2019
#2
Yup. Everyday I see a positive path for the next election but still hold my breath.
fleabiscuit
Jul 2019
#4
"Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump"
TeamPooka
Jul 2019
#7
RT and Sputnik went all in for Sanders (and Stein) before; I expect a similar effort of some kind
Maru Kitteh
Jul 2019
#19
I don't care what magic tea leaves she's reading-- the election is still too far away...
TreasonousBastard
Jul 2019
#10
Exactly. As they say, a poll is just a snapshot of one time. Too many variables to predict now.
Midnight Writer
Jul 2019
#16
LOL. All electric house here, but I guess I could fire up the cars in the garage. nt
fleabiscuit
Jul 2019
#18
blue neen
(12,328 posts)1. It's good news. I'll take it.
Indeed.
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)3. You and me both friend.
blue neen
(12,328 posts)5. I like the way Ms. Bitecofer thinks!
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)8. You and me both!
Tiggeroshii
(11,088 posts)2. Taking it with a grain of salt until the last state is called on election night.
I will take nothing for granted anymore.
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)4. Yup. Everyday I see a positive path for the next election but still hold my breath.
yonder
(9,678 posts)6. I'll grasp at that straw of hope.
TeamPooka
(24,259 posts)7. "Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump"
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)9. Shouldn't be an issue. The betting markets have him currently in 5th place.
Maru Kitteh
(28,343 posts)19. RT and Sputnik went all in for Sanders (and Stein) before; I expect a similar effort of some kind
whether they back Sanders or some other candidate against whoever becomes the Democratic nominee apparent.
TreasonousBastard
(43,049 posts)10. I don't care what magic tea leaves she's reading-- the election is still too far away...
and anything can happen.
Nonetheless, I firmly believe that the "silent majority" out there now sees just what a useless asshole he is and will vote him out. If they vote, that is.
MarcA
(2,195 posts)13. And If they are allowed to vote. n/t
coeur_de_lion
(3,684 posts)21. And if their vote is counted accurately
Midnight Writer
(21,812 posts)16. Exactly. As they say, a poll is just a snapshot of one time. Too many variables to predict now.
Kablooie
(18,641 posts)11. This final sentence in the article rings true to me.
The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, she writes, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced hes the Terminator and cant be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)14. You and me both Kablooie. I'm one of the terrified electorate.
larwdem
(759 posts)12. all I can do is hope
they are right
aeromanKC
(3,328 posts)15. Hillary wins in 2016 if the perception wasn't Hillary in a Landslide
Too many people either stayed home, didn't GOTV as hard as they would have or voted for Jill Stein.
This will not happen again!! (See 2018)
JohnnyRingo
(18,653 posts)17. I'm going to go shut off the gas stove now.
Whew! That was close.
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)18. LOL. All electric house here, but I guess I could fire up the cars in the garage. nt
JohnnyRingo
(18,653 posts)20. If you have a Prius, it could take a month or two.
A Prius actually emits fewer pollutants at idle than a 1964 Mustang with the engine off. When they measure cars they put them in airtight enclosures and record emissions from the entire car. True fact.