Shift in Connecticut Senate Race as Democrat Is Put on the Defensive (McMahon Leading)

[cali]

NEW HAVEN — Representative Christopher S. Murphy has been at once the other guy — the largely unknown subject of attack ads by his Republican rival, Linda E. McMahon — and the Democratic nominee who was presumed to be the heavy favorite in the Senate race to replace Joseph I. Lieberman.


But a funny thing has happened in Connecticut as the political world has focused on Missouri, Massachusetts, Virginia and the few other states considered likely to determine which party controls the Senate. Battered by Ms. McMahon’s advertisements before he even became the nominee, Mr. Murphy has found himself on the defensive in a race that could add an unexpected wild card into the battle for the Senate.

<snip>

“We’ve always known this race was going to be close,” Mr. Murphy said before a luncheon with voters here, adding that Ms. McMahon has spent approximately five times as much on television ads as he has. “And Connecticut has a history of pretty competitive statewide races, so I’m confident I’m going to win, but I don’t think it’s going to be a blowout.”

A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,472 likely voters that was released on Tuesday showed that Ms. McMahon was favored by 49 percent and Mr. Murphy by 46 percent, essentially tied, given that the poll’s margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points. She led 54 percent to 42 percent among men. Among women, Mr. Murphy got 50 percent to Ms. McMahon’s 46 percent.

<snip>

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/29/nyregion/in-connecticut-attack-ads-chip-away-christopher-murphys-lead-in-senate-race.html?pagewanted=all

[Autumn Colors]

1. I was surprised by that...

I honestly don't know anyone planning to vote for Linda McMahon. I thought everyone was thoroughly sick of her trying to buy the election last time, with billboards everywhere.

Well, my boyfriend and I just moved (and changed our voter registration) from a blue town to a very small red town in Litchfield County, so hopefully our two votes will help.

It's unfortunate that the most progressive candidate didn't win the Dem. primary in the race to fill Murphy's Congressional seat.

[nanabugg]

2. Oh, crap!! DNC needs to get some money in there fast. nt

[cali]

4. My thoughts exactly.

We can't lose CT and the idea of McMahon is horrifying.

[still_one]

3. Connecticut has been extremely disappointing. There is no doubt in my mind the country has shifted

right, and it has been going on for some time

What amazes me is we are in the situation we are today because of republican policies since reagan

[Jennicut]

5. There is no ultra shift to the right in CT. Linda McMahon has tons of money to spend.

McMahon is a multimillionaire from the WWE and Murphy does not have the kind of money she has. But he was a very popular Rep in the 5th district. He was my Rep and lots of people like him. This will not be like in 2010 where McMahon ran against Blumenthal. That guy was attorney general in Connecticut since I was a kid and I am in my 30's now. He was really well known. Chris Murphy is young and less well known but has a very good clean reputation. I would wait until they debate to say this race is over. Quinnipiac has the race as McMahon + 3, PPP has it as Murphy +4. That to me says it is pretty even.
CT has had plenty of Repubs over the years. We had a Repub governor until we just elected a Dem and we had some Repub Reps. Dodd and Lieberman were there for years so the Senate has not had a Repub in a long time. And our Repubs are not the tea party types, they are so moderate I doubt they would be Repubs in the west or south. So CT is not ultra right.

[still_one]

6. It isn't just Ct, it is the trend of the whole country. The republican war against women should

have been a fatal blow to the republicans

Incidently, whether they are moderate or even progressive republicans means very little if we do not have the majority in Congress, because the elements that control the republicans are ultra conservative

[cali]

7. Well, not the whole country.

the opposite is true in my state.

[ProSense]

8. Likely voters

lean Republican. Note that Obama is up by only seven points.

He was up by 12 in the last poll.

<..>

President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney, the Republican challenger, 50 - 38 percent, including 48 - 42 percent among men, 52 - 35 percent among women and 45 - 35 percent among independent voters.

<...>

From May 29 - June 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,408 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. The survey includes 381 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points and 538 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=1758

Note that the gap among women is roughly the same 17 vs. 21 in the current poll, but now independents are for Romney:

The gender gap is yawning with women backing Obama 59 - 38 percent while men back Romney 53 - 45 percent. Independent voters are divided with 49 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Obama leads among all income groups except for a 49 - 49 percent split among voters making more than $100,000 per year. Voters in all age groups back the president.

In the previous poll Obama had a 10-point lead, now Romney has two-point lead.

Again, these pollsters need to clarify when they switch from registered to likely voters and explain the impact on the results.

[reformist2]

9. When will be rid of these multi-millionaires buying our elections?