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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe top 10 House races of 2020
10. Georgias 7th (Republican held but will be OPEN in 2020). This seat outside Atlanta is ground zero for Democrats attempts to own suburban America. The once-conservative district is no longer majority-white, and even though it voted for Trump in 2016, a Democrat nearly won it last year and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams did win there. After that close encounter, Rep. Rob Woodall (R) is retiring. His 2018 challenger, Carolyn Bourdeaux, has the most name recognition so far in a crowded Democratic primary.
9. Illinois 14th (Democratic held). Rep. Lauren Underwoods (D) reelection is shaping up to be a test case for whether supporting an impeachment inquiry will cost vulnerable Democrats their jobs. She ran an impressive race to oust a long-term Republican congressman last year in this conservative-leaning suburban Chicago district. Now she is just one of two Democrats representing a district that voted for Trump to support the Houses impeachment inquiry. Half a dozen Republicans are running for the nomination to challenge her, so well keep an eye on how this field shapes up.
8. New Yorks 11th (Democratic held). Theres no question that Rep. Max Rose (D), an Afghanistan war veteran, is a talented campaigner, having unseated a Republican last year in a district Trump won by 10 points. Now hes dropping the f-word in media interviews (which Democrats say is very Staten Island) and raising a lot of money, expecting a strong challenger himself. Leading that field and with national Republicans cheering her on is GOP Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, though big questions loom over that candidacy: How much of a hang-up is it that she said she regrets voting for Trump? And could felon and former GOP congressman Michael Grimm run, again? This race may come down to: Four years later, how do the blue-collar voters of Staten Island feel about the president?
7. Pennsylvanias 10th (Republican held). Rep. Scott Perry (R) is on this list in large part because of redistricting, which moved the House Freedom Caucus member into a slightly more moderate district (though it still leans Republican). He narrowly won reelection last year. Democrats say they have a uniquely strong candidate, Eugene DePasquale, who proved he can win statewide (and in this district) in his successful 2016 campaign for state auditor.
6. Texass 23rd (Republican held but will be OPEN). Democrats top pickup opportunity comes in a seat theyve long desired, this vast border district in Texas. They havent been able to knock out Rep. Will Hurd (R), but now they wont have to. Hurd recently surprised everyone in politics by announcing his retirement, after criticizing Trumps racist go back tweets. This majority-Hispanic district voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Its one of three remaining that Democrats havent picked up since. Among the three open seats in Texas that Democrats are trying to flip, thanks to GOP retirements, this is by far their best chance. Iraq War veteran Gina Ortiz Jones, who came close to beating Hurd last year, is the bold name in the primary.
5. New Mexicos 2nd (Democratic held). Now we get to the group of newly Democratic-held seats that Republicans feel they should be able to wrest back. Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D) won last year by meeting the rural district where it is (for example, airing an ad of her firing her gun). This is shaping up to be a rematch of 2018, with state Rep. Yvette Herrell running again but with a potential twist: A former congressman who held this seat, Stevan Pearce, could get in, reports Cook Political.
4. New Yorks 22nd (Democratic held). Was Rep. Anthony Brindisis (D) 2018 win, in a district Trump won by 15.5 points, a fluke or the manifestation of the realignment of political power in Upstate New York toward Democrats? The answer may come in 2020. Brindisi outperformed the Democratic governor here to knock off a Republican, but some argue it was in part because he was up against a weak incumbent. If that former congresswoman, Claudia Tenney, is the GOP nominee again, this seat could get less competitive, but for now its a top Republican pickup opportunity.
3. South Carolinas 1st (Democratic held). Rep. Joe Cunningham (D) became the first Democrat to win this Charleston district in nearly 30 years by running on local issues. Also helpful to him was a nasty Republican primary in which, after a tweet from Trump, GOP voters ousted Rep. Mark Sanford in favor of a more pro-Trump choice. Republicans are excited about two Republicans running, state Rep. Nancy Mace and a local councilwoman, Kathy Landing. Trump won this district by 13 points, but like all the Democrats on this list, Cunningham is doing what he needs to make it a fight for Republicans. He has raised $1.3 million so far.
2. Oklahomas 5th (Democratic held). Political analysts say Rep. Kendra Horns (D) win in this Oklahoma City district was the one of the biggest surprises for Democrats in all of 2018. She is just the third woman Oklahoma has sent to Congress, ever. This is another district that Trump won by double digits (13.5 points) and another case in which Republicans like their potential nominees, such as state Sen. Stephanie Bice and entrepreneur Terry Neese.
1. Utahs 4th (Democratic held). Its a sign of what a good election Democrats had last year that Rep. Ben McAdams (D) won this seat in Utah, one of the most Republican states in the nation. The former mayor of Salt Lake City barely beat out former GOP congresswoman Mia Love in this suburban district Trump won by seven points. The Republican field is still shaping up to challenge him, but suffice it to say Republicans are putting a priority on recruiting candidates to take back this red district next year.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/23/top-house-races/
murielm99
(30,745 posts)A friend of mine ran for state rep. out here in my district. It is very red here. She ran a smart campaign, and made a good showing. She did not win, but I was impressed by how well she did. I canvassed with her.
A few days after the election, she received a phone call from her trump loving brother. She was annoyed, because she no longer speaks to him. He congratulated her on her campaign. He asked her if she would be willing to primary Lauren Underwood as a Democrat. She told him no and hung up. They have been after Underwood ever since she won.
redstatebluegirl
(12,265 posts)We caught the republicans asleep last time, it won't happen again.