There is no bump.

[Major Hogwash]

Not from selecting Ryan to be his running mate.
Nor from the convention.

Romney didn't lower his unfavorable rating at all.
America still doesn't like him.
Pandering to disaffected liberals who voted for President Obama in 2008 was scrapping the bottom of the barrel.

And, on top of all that . . . Romney still has to release his income tax returns.

As Colonel Klink would say,"Disssssmissssed!"

[Kalidurga]

1. Maybe in a couple of days when it all sinks in...

nah it's still going to be a thud.

[Solly Mack]

2. The chair got a bump.

[Onceuponalife]

18. The chair would make a better president than

Mittens.

[Solly Mack]

19. True.

[B2G]

3. While I hope this is true...

I haven't seen any polls out since the speech last night.

[Coexist]

4. when will the next batch of polls come out?

[Ashleyshubby]

5. The polling average contradicts you

Obama's lead on August 12th was 4.7%. It is now 0.5%.

August 12 is when the pick of Ryan was made public.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[speedoo]

8. Not really.

First, the Ryan pick was 18 days ago and that is a lot of time. Other things have happened, including their convention.. You'd have to do a more careful analysis to detect any bump from ether event. I'm satisfied with Nate Silver's analysis that there was a minimal bump (maybe 1%) from the Ryan choice and I will accept whatever he says re. Their convention, but I will be surprised if it's anything substantial.

Meanwhile there has been a lot of good news from the battleground state polls since the Ryan choice and overall Silver has Obama in better shape since then.

[Ashleyshubby]

12. So Obama's decrease was driven by an unknown?

What happened between Ryan's pick and the Convention that you hypothesize was responsible for the bump?

[uponit7771]

9. Come on, rAssMussen has been an outlier for ever

[Ashleyshubby]

13. I didn't mention Rasmussen

Did I? And do you have proof that excluding Rasmussen has any effect in the polling average?

[Major Hogwash]

21. Gee, you're wrong.

I don't mean to argue with you about it.
I'm a professional procrastinator.
I know what I'm talking about.

[dawg]

6. We'll know for sure by Tuesday.

If Nate Silver's now cast doesn't have Romney in the lead by Tuesday, it'll take something really special to give him any chance at all in November.

[jillan]

7. It's too early to tell. Mitt just gave his speech last nite, as did the chair.

[rocktivity]

10. Reaching disaffected Obama voters could still work

If Mitt releases his tax returns!





rocktivity

[Major Hogwash]

22. I hadn't thought of that possibility.

That could turn out to be the mystery variable in this whole election.
I might have to reconsider the effects of that on the race now.

[spanone]

11. k&r...

[edhopper]

14. If you look at Natre Silvers blog

And look at the rolling popular vote chart on the right, you will see there has been no real movement in the numbers.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

[B Calm]

15. Still looking for a Romney bumper sticker,

and I drive a truck 3,000 miles a week.

[ananda]

16. Yep. Still asking: where are those tax returns, Mitt?

nt

[Lex]

17. And his "running" mate is a pathological liar. About running, about

pretty much everything.

[seabeyond]

20. didnt the only bump come when polls switched from most likely to vote, to registered voter which

tends to repug? i heard that about a week ago

[Major Hogwash]

23. Rasmussen said he prefers to use the "likely to vote" variable rather than the registered variable.

Because he was really, really secretly hoping that Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Georgia, and Florida could suppress the Democratic vote in those states.

Rasmussen is a regular contributor on Faux Snooze.
His point was that registered voters don't always get excited enough to want to go vote.
So, he decided a few years ago to only count those registered voters he considered were also "likely to vote".
But, I don't know how he determines that.
I'm voting by mail this year so I can cast my vote as early as possible in this year's election.