My take on the race
I think that after the last debate Obama needs to be up 8-10%. That's the kind of cushion we need to survive the final onslaught of unregulated PAC money.
I think that is doable. (As always, remember that an 8-10% move is actually only 4-5% of voters switching preference.) Get a lead, and then we hang on by our finger-nails, like Nixon in '68 or Carter in '76.
There is a poll that has been kicking around DU the last couple of days that is the single best thing for Obama I have seen, showing that white women are going for Romney 51%.
If Romney gets 51% of white women he cannot be elected. He needs at least 55% of white women and probably more.
I think that 92%-94% of all Romney voters will be white, and he needs to win two thirds of white votes. He cannot do that without winning white women by a large margin. (White men will go for Romney big, but not 85%-90% big.)