From Dr Marshall Shepherd on Hurricane Dorian
Marshall Shepherd
1 hr
UPDATE on Hurricane Dorian....If you know anyone on Abaco Island in the Bahamas, it is about to take a DIRECT hit from just upgraded Category 5 Dorian. I fear utter destruction. The official National Hurricane Center cone and forecast is shown below for the U.S mainland. Soooooo close to Coastal Florida, Georgia, and Carolinas (which is likely the direct landfall spot if it does so but I honestly cannot rule out any of those states at this time). Like Matthew, these areas will be impacted either way and a few models still actually have a Florida landfall scenario. Below is the American GFS model location of Dorian Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoon, respectively....See how close it is to the coast. Very difficult forecast because this storm is tapping into something the numerical computer models, which are essentially fluid dynamics models, can struggle with....a slow moving, large spin within a larger fluid...We are hoping by this evening for a bit more clarity. Remember 3 days out is typically more reliable than 5 days out, which historically has more spread. You probably noticed that we went from talking about a Sunday mainland landfall to activity into this week Tuesday/Wednesday. I am sure businesses in Jacksonville did who lost the FSU vs Boise State game. This reflects the storm slowing/strengthening and the models struggling with the ridge of high pressure that was supposed to shove it into Florida. This is somewhat of an anomaly so understand this rather than bash meteorologists. Decisions are being made and messaging is happening with good intentions based on the best information available. The models are just struggling with this particular one. It happens from time to time. Try not to be that person that calls a field goal kicker that makes almost all of his kicks this year a bad kicker because he struggled with a couple in a big game. Still a good kicker. Models and track forecasting have significantly improved in recent decades...Dorian is a struggle.....
For those sharing: Dr. Marshall Shepherd is a leading international expert in weather and climate and is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Georgia. Dr. Shepherd was the 2013 President of American Meteorological Society (AMS). Dr. Shepherd serves as Director of the University of Georgia’s (UGA) Atmospheric Sciences Program. He hosts The Weather Channel's Weather Geeks and is a Senior Contributor to Forbes. His BS, MS, and PHD are from Florida State University's Department of Meteorology. (Find him on Twitter @Drshepherd2013 or at his public Facebook page)
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