General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsElection 2019: Virginia Legislature is drifting BLUE
Its been over a month since Ben Not Larry Sabato Tribbett and Chaz Nuttycombe last updated their Virginia House of Delegates and State Senate ratings, so with just 64 days to go until November 5, its great to see these two astute Virginia political analysts each out with brand-new ratings. See below for their summary graphics and explanatory tweets. Also, here are a few takeaways:
Chaz Nuttycombes last ratings, over a month ago, had the House of Delegates rated at 53D-47R (a 6-seat Democratic advantage, and a net 4-seat pickup from the 49 House of Delegates seats Democrats currently hold), and the State Senate at 23D-17R (a 6-seat Democratic advantage, and a 4-seat pickup from the 19 State Senate seats Democrats currently hold). Chazs current ratings have the House of Delegates at 54D-46R (an 8-seat Democratic advantage, and a net 5-seat pickup from the 49 House of Delegates seats Democrats currently hold), and the State Senate at 23D-17R (no net change from Chazs previous Senate ratings).
House of Delegates ratings changes by Chaz are: Del. Danica Roem (D-HD13) goes from likely to lean reelect; Del. Lee Carter (D-HD50) also goes from likely to lean reelect; Del. Wendy Gooditis (D-HD10) improves a bit, from Toss-Up to Tilt D; Joshua Cole (D-HD28) slips a notch, from Tilt D to Toss-Up; Sheila Bynum-Coleman (D-HD66) improves a notch, from Tilt R to Toss-Up; Clint Jenkins (D-HD76) improves a notch, from Toss-Up to Tilt D; Karen Mallard (D-HD84) slips a notch, from Tilt R to Lean R; Jess Foster (D-HD88) falls a notch, from Likely R to Safe R. Theres only one State Senate ratings change: Amanda Pohl (D-SD11) improves from Likely R to Lean R vs. Sen. Amanda Chase (R).
Ben Not Larry Sabato Tribbett has generally moved things in the Democratic direction from his previous ratings, which had it at 47 Lean R or better vs. 43 Lean D or better, plus 10 tossups in the House of Delegates; 20 Lean D or better before tossups are counted in the State Senate and a clear edge [for Democrats] to win a State Senate majority this fall.
Currently Ben has the House of Delegates rated at 47 seats slightly leaning or better for Ds, and the GOP at 46 seats slightly leaning or better and the State Senate staying the same as in Bens previous ratings (20D-19R-1 Tossup).
Key House of Delegates ratings changes by Ben include: HD76 (Democrat Clint Jenkins vs. Republican Del. Chris Jones) from Leaning Republican to tossup; HD40 (Democrat Dan Helmer vs. Republican Del. Tim Hugo) from Likely Republican to Leaning Republican; HD66 (Democrat Sheila Bynum-Coleman vs. Speaker Kirk Cox) from Likely Republican to Leaning Republican; HD10 (Democratic Del. Wendy Gooditis vs. Republican Randy Minchew), HD13 (Democratic Del. Danica Roem vs. Republican Kelly McGinn), HD51 (Democratic Del. Hala Ayala vs. Republican Rich Anderson), HD91 (Democrat Martha Mugler vs. Republican Colleen Holcomb) all moving from tossup to Slight-Lean Democratic;
Ben has seven tossups in the House of Delegates right now: HD28 (Democrat Joshua Cole vs. Republican Paul Milde); HD30 (Democrat Ann Ridgeway vs. Republican write-in candidate, Del. Nick Freitas), HD50 (Democratic Del. Lee Carter vs. Republican Ian Lovejoy), HD68 (Democratic Del. Dawn Adams vs. Republican Garrison Coward), HD73 (Democrat Rodney Willett vs. Republican Mary Margaret Kastelberg, HD76 (Democrat Clint Jenkins vs. Republican Del. Chris Jones) and HD85 (Democrat Alex Askew vs. Republican Rocky Holcomb).
https://bluevirginia.us/2019/09/updated-9-2-19-virginia-house-senate-ratings-by-ben-not-larry-sabato-tribbett-chaz-nuttycombe
msongs
(67,361 posts)DFW
(54,295 posts)It is nowhere near a complete process, and it has not been a smooth one way trip.
Still, the influx of government workers and educated high tech employees into northern Virginia has changed the dynamic of the state's population. It started as a slow trickle. My father was one of the first, coming to northern Virginia as an experimental one-man Washington correspondent for a one-horse town newspaper in upstate New York while still in his twenties. He stayed on for the rest of his life. He was born near New York City, but his father was born in Charleston, South Carolina.