Another Recession Sign to Ignore at Your Peril - WSJ

[Quixote1818]

A worrying signal from the ISM Manufacturing Survey follows an inversion of the yield curve, and it no longer makes sense to keep explaining such signs away

By Aaron Back
Sept. 3, 2019 1:03 pm ET
Signs of a possible recession keep stacking up. At some point it no longer makes sense to keep explaining them away.

The latest grim omen came Tuesday as the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 49.1 in August from 51.2 in July, signaling a likely contraction in manufacturing activity.

More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/another-recession-sign-to-ignore-at-your-peril-11567530230

[House of Roberts]

1. Wall Street has predicted nine out of the last five recessions.

[rufus dog]

2. ISM is a solid leading indicator

Inventories increasing or decreasing, both Raw Materials and Finished Goods. Real easy to report, I used to be on the list when I was in operations. Last month RM inventory compared to this month, last month FG inventory compared to this month, total inventory value. So if you are contracting you will cut back on RM inventory and try to burn off FG inventory. When you get to the point where you are cutting RM inventory and FG inventory is still growing, it means you are cutting back buys and still not selling what you are manufacturing. Then you cut back manufacturing, layoffs, and you cut back more.

[rainin]

3. When the recession hit in 2009, I was prepared.

I had 1 year of stored food and cash that got us through unemployment. We were without work for a year, followed by 5 short jobs before landing the one that supports our family today. Now, we have nothing but debt. We won't survive it this time. We're already stressed to a breaking point living through these last 3 years of this nightmare. I'm older, burned out, tired of the constant struggle, and living paycheck to paycheck without no safety net.

It isn't about ignoring signs at my peril. I don't know what to do except hope.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

4. K&R