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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrump's New Math: Inside the Plan to Flip Blue States in 2020
When President Donald Trump steps on stage for a campaign rally in Rio Rancho, New Mexico next week, even his own campaign staffers know he will be facing long odds. A Republican candidate for President hasnt won the state since 2004, when George W. Bush beat John Kerry there by a margin of just 5,988 votes. Trump himself lost the state by eight points to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and his disapproval rating among registered voters there is a crushing 57%, according to the Morning Consult voter tracking poll.
Nonetheless, Trumps campaign is betting it can win in New Mexico. Flush with cash, the campaign is planning to announce a state director and additional ground staff there in the coming weeks, a campaign official tells TIME. Internal campaign data has convinced Trumps political advisors they can energize a slice of the states Hispanic voters to vote for Trump in 2020 by emphasizing Trumps handling of the economy, border security and his trade confrontation with China. According to U.S. Census data, 49.1 percent of New Mexicos residents identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino.
The move is part of a series of bets Trump is making to win states that went for Clinton in 2016. Trumps son-in-law and senior White House advisor Jared Kushner says that voter data has convinced the reelection effort to fund robust field operations in a much larger number of states than in 2016. I can see us very aggressively playing in 18 swing states, Jared Kushner tells TIME, adding that in his view, the 2016 Trump campaign seriously played in about 11 swing states.
The broader bets, made very early in the election cycle, signify some defining characteristics of Trumps 2020 effort. To win, Trump probably needs to come up with a different set of states than those that garnered 304 electoral college votes and carried him to the White House: public polls show his disapproval ratings swamp his approval numbers by at least 9 percentage points in his 2016 blue-to-red trifecta of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trumps-new-math-inside-the-plan-to-flip-blue-states-in-2020/ar-AAH1IzQ?li=BBnb7Kz
They're sniffing their own farts.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,353 posts)Anybody on the ground there that makes you think that Trump might have a chance of flipping it there? Any likelihood of Republican electoral shenanigans?
struggle4progress
(118,032 posts)Stuart G
(38,359 posts)...Trump is a liar, cheat, and fool. His numbers will go down if he runs again. There was a certain feeling among some to give him a chance. Maybe a non politician like Donald Trump can do a better job.
...But Trump has done a worse job. He is a bigger liar, cheat and fool than he was thought of before. He has proved that nothing has changed. He still lies most of the time. The Alabama Line, proved that. I don't think he has apologized, has he? Trump has not improved, he still lies and lies some more. Most people are sick of his lies. I sure hope that Trump doesn't run again.
DFW
(54,047 posts)But.....they are Republicans. Plenty of that cash is going to disappear into their own pockets. It's what they do.
Wayne LaPierre wants the NRA to survive--NOT to put a gun in every holster, but so he and his wife can continue to have free McMansions, fancy cars, first class trips and designer clothes all paid for by the NRA as "legitimate" expenses incurred in his heading the organization.
So what if the Republicans are flush with cash? They've ALWAYS been flush with cash. If they start spending a majority of it on the election instead of on themselves, THEN we need to watch out.
gratuitous
(82,849 posts)Missing completely from their story is any mention of what Trump plans to do to win over voters he didn't get in 2016. He has governed for no one but himself, he's spent the last 30 months calling names, whining, and being petulant, and he is showing no signs of slowing down.
Takket
(21,421 posts)And it sure as fuck has nothing to do with winning over voters. More likely they have found some weakness in the New Mexico election system that Russia can exploit for them and they need drumpf to campaign there to give the appearance he got through to voters to explain a stunning upset on Election Day.
NM should be on alert.