McCready loss, has the 2018 mojo faded?

[Cattledog]

In 2018 he lost by 1,000 votes

In 2019 the margin was 5,000

[Tiggeroshii]

1. 2018 was a general election. 2019 was a special election and lower turnout was expected.

This is a +12 district for trump. They won with +1-2 in 2018 and 2019. At this rate, if Trump's performance is on par with his fellow republicans in their district, he will easily lose the state he won with barely 3% in 2016. This is really bad news for Republicans that they still can't seem to comfortably win a solid red district like this.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. That's a good way of looking at it. NC 9 has a +8 PVI, i.e, partisan lean . We lost by 2.

Last edited Wed Sep 11, 2019, 01:26 PM - Edit history (1)

Even if we lost a point from 018 that's consistent with a 8 point lead in the generic ballot. If we win the generic ballot and the presidential vote by 8 points I'll be ecstatic.

[Tiggeroshii]

46. Likewise!

But obviously we would have to work hard for it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. I meant 018.

[Polybius]

42. Lower turnout has nothing to do with margins

Turnout should theoretically effect both Parties equally. The wider margin of defeat means one of three things:

1) We lost because more people liked the Republican
2) We lost because we were lazy, while every Republican voted, many of us stood home
3) Fraud

I lean toward 2. Polls the day before showed us winning.

[Tiggeroshii]

45. As the poster above you stated, this is a pvi +8, and democrats overperformed by about 6 or 7 points

Indicating that Democrats were still motivated, just slightly less so than in 2018. If this is a trend in other similar districts, and people vote accordingly in the presidential race, then it is certainly a good sign for us.

[karynnj]

49. Turnout does not affect both sides equally

Historically, around the country, our turnout is more volatile than theirs. While you can point to times when there was unusually high or unusually low Republican turnout, more of their base vote each and every time than ours.

You could add another point - it is possible that their candidate this time was better than the one last time. (I am not from North Carolina and have no information on this, but it is clear that the former nominee was corrupt. The question is whether that was widely known and if it actually depressed his votes in 2018. I also know nothing about this year's candidate.)

Your 2 assumes that the 2 parties have the same number of people who normally vote for them. The widely quoted statistic is that this is a very red district meaning that ALL of the people who consider themselves Democrats can get out and vote, we could still lose.

[octoberlib]

50. Bishop was a state senator so the people in this district were familiar with him.

He's a white nationalist so definitely not better although the GOP might think so.


The district was re-drawn in 2017 due to racial gerrymandering and now it's more of a light pink.


Robeson county went from +15 for McCready last year to +1.1 yesterday. Don't know if they flipped to Bishop or just didn't show up.

[Drunken Irishman]

54. Your point about this district being redrawn in 2017 is lost on a lot of people...

It's not relevant to compare this to other elections. The only one we have to compare it to is 2018's and the Dem did worse despite the fact the GOP got caught trying to steal it last time.

[Tiggeroshii]

58. It was redrawn in february 2016 not 2017 apparently

So 2016 compares well if the case. If i remember correctly the maps in 2017 were not upheld as redrawn and they are still fighting for new redrawn districts. The 2016 maps are still being used though.

[octoberlib]

59. I'm just wondering with all the oppression and fraud from the gop if some dems

were demoralized and just thought what's the use? NC has early voting and same day registration so they basically had 3 weeks to vote. I think the NC Dem party needs to get down to Robeson county and start talking to people.

[karynnj]

55. Thanks

It is scary that white nationalism is now acceptable to so many people. Clearly support from the President of the United States has likely made more people comfortable with something that they would have been unwilling to overtly support even 4 years ago. To me, the Charlotteville videos looked like an English language version of some vintage video of Hitler Youth. Obviously, a large portion of this country did not see it that way.

I don't know what could possibly make these people reject the wave that they have joined. I know that there were earlier waves where fascists gained traction, but they never gained the strength they have now. It does emphasize why we need to win and why we have to find a way to heal at least some of the divide.

[Tiggeroshii]

56. I didn't realize it was redrawn.

Thanks for that! That is disconcerting :

[Tiggeroshii]

57. Apparently it was redrawn in feb2016.

Last edited Wed Sep 11, 2019, 03:56 PM - Edit history (1)

According to wikipedia, anyways. If that's the case, then 2016 is an accurate comparison.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina%27s_9th_congressional_district

[octoberlib]

60. Thanks Tiggeroshii! I wasn't exactly sure of the year, there's been so much obstruction and drama.

And it may be darker than light pink as I was going off the 2017 map.

[Tiggeroshii]

61. No problem!

It has a pvi of +8, meaning it is probably darker than pink. And Trump won it by 12% in 2016.

[Polybius]

51. Your second point (about adding another option) sorta falls into my option 1

It certainly could be a mix of 1 and 2, but is Bishop really better than the last Republican? Didn't he author that bathroom bill? I ready he is extreme right-wing.

I am in full agreement with you on your first paragraph. We need to get out and vote more in special elections. It shouldn't take Roy Moore for us to do it. We have to do it in normal special elections too.

Of course, we both could be wrong. Maybe it was option 3 (fraud).

[treestar]

2. Really, just one election?

and the "mojo" is "faded?"

[mitch96]

30. Agree.. A heavy republican district, this is what I expected

They did not vote for tRump, they voted for their local republican nominee... Interesting it was so close.. Hope they vote blue in the general...YMMV
m

[treestar]

48. Exactly

Kind of like Beto almost winning in Texas. Very good sign.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

44. Came here to say this as well

The margin of victory was extremely close, significant because of it being a very Republican district (in NC too).

[still_one]

3. You cannot make that extrapolation. However, that some seem to think that the favorability of Trump

and the republicans is at a low ebb, implies an easy path for 2020 would a very bad mistake, and NOTHING can be taken for granted

[BlueTsunami2018]

4. He actually won last year.

Why they were rewarded for their bad behavior by getting a do over is the most confounding thing about it. McReady should have been seated.

[octoberlib]

34. Less than 50% of registered Dems turned out to vote. Rural, republican voters

out performed last year in turnout. it always comes down to turnout (when fraud isn't involved that is).

[MFM008]

5. Wow

A Republican won in a red state in a red district
Where maggot won by 12 pts.
Coz hillbillies.
2 point spread.
If anyone thinks were not going to tear another
Hole in his ass next year
Can think again.

[former9thward]

17. It is not a red state.

It is mixed. Obama won in 2008. Romney barely won in 2012. The governor is a Democrat.

[MFM008]

40. So they voted blue

Once?
In Washington state we voted for Reagan in 1984.
Ps we had a gop governor ..Spellman
And a gop senator ...Slade Gordon.
We are a blue state.

[JI7]

6. Trump won the district by double digits . it's been a red district for decades . and it was a

special election.

[struggle4progress]

24. It's regularly been redrawn

Here are pictures for 2003. 2013, and 2017

[JI7]

7. one thing it does show it that Rural areas still will come out for Trump in huge numbers

that trump supporters approve of his bigoted policies .

[Kurt V.]

8. yes. all is lost. I'm giving up.

[Scoopster]

9. ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!

Only half the people who voted in 2018 turned out for this special election. In the 2018 vote, the GOP candidate was ahead by less than a thousand votes and that was ONLY because of GOP shenanigans & breaking election laws.

The lesson here, as always, is people NEED TO VOTE IN EVERY SINGLE ELECTION.

[democratisphere]

10. Voting in RED STATES is alive and well.

Remember THAT!

[kentuck]

11. I think there were almost 100,000 more votes cast in 2018 election?

Democrats did not turn out for a "special election". They seldom do.

[Cattledog]

13. And that's why we are were we are.

[sharedvalues]

15. It's just a fact

Many Republican voters are old retirees
Many Dem voters are working people

That’s why Republicans do everything they can to make it harder to vote. The freaking polls in NC close at 7! And Republcians limited early voting in NC and bragged about how that achieved their goal of suppressing black votes
Add in the huge gerrymander in this district and what you should feel is strong ANGER about all the ways the GOP stole this election with voter suppression and gerrymandering.

[former9thward]

18. The polls close at 7:30 pm

They were open 13 hours. There was early voting. Anyone working could have voted if they wanted to. Early voting sites were open for three weeks starting August 21 from 8 am to 7 pm. NC has same day registration.

What exactly would you do that is different?

[Hoyt]

35. Agree. With early voting and in some states voting by mail or "absentee," no excuse.

[sharedvalues]

63. No no no no no no.

We must make it easier to vote.

What would I do in NC?
-make Election Day a Sunday or holiday
- repeal the stupid voter ID law
- double number of polling places
- add mail voting.

[Polybius]

43. I work long hours, and because of that I can't vote after work

So what I do is get up a half hour earlier and vote before work. Does it suck? Yeah, I love my sleep. But this is more important, and only one, two, or three times a year at best. Some people are lazy, there's no doubt about it.

[sharedvalues]

62. Good for you.

I don’t take painkillers when I have a headache.
I just tough it out.

But that doesn’t mean that we should make it harder to get painkillers. On the contrary: make it easier for people to take them for headaches and more people will have less pain.

Similarly for voting. I vote too no matter how hard it is. But that doesn’t mean we should make it hard. On the contrary: make it easier for people to vote and more people will vote.

[Joe941]

12. It is actually extremely positive results for the resistance.

This should scare the Republicans a lot.

[sharedvalues]

14. SPECIAL ELECTION. hugely gerrymandered district

[DeminPennswoods]

16. NC is heavily gerry-mandered at state and CD level

With the NC Supreme Court decision mandating new maps for state house and senate districts, these will change in 2020. First the state legislature will be different and more reflective of the state's actual partisan make up. That, in turn, will produce a much fairer congressional district map assuming there's no lawsuit in the interim to the NC supreme court that results in them striking down the current CDs before the 2020 election.

[redstatebluegirl]

19. Stop whining and GOTV!

The 9th has been a republican district since 1963, they got a do over and we lost by 2 in a place Trump won by 12 after he came and threw red meat to the base and scared the hell out of them the night before. PLEASE, this is not the end of the world, he is in big trouble but only if we keep focused and GOTV!

We are not going to win in most red states, that is a given, we can turn some purple and a districts might turn blue, but that is all we need at this point. We also need to play dirty pool like they do with the PAC money. Show how dangerous they are, show farmers and ranchers what he is doing to them, (like they don't already know). Show women and the elderly what they have in store for them.

We are NOT going to turn any hard core Trumpers, what we CAN do is get people registered, especially young people, and get them out to vote.

[jpljr77]

26. Here's the thing, though....

"...after he came and threw red meat to the base and scared the hell out of them the night before."

He's going to be doing that during the 2020 election, don't you think? So shouldn't we look at our LOSSES critically and try to glean something from them other than, "We came really close, and that's like winning!"

[Joe941]

20. NC is not america.

[bluestarone]

23. I don't live there BUT I see the importance of getting off my ass and GO VOTE

THEY didn't plain and simple THEY didn't!

[lunasun]

25. I think maybe in some places the hope was more Dems in would magically mean more would be done

to either keep trump in check or they would try to impeach . He’s as bad or worse since 2018 & no power loss
I know nothing about this area so

[qazplm135]

27. this is why we lose

this stuff right here.

Republicans don't ask these questions. They don't have this mindset.

[Miles Archer]

28. Second time I've posted this today...

“Don, what gives is what always gives in the races. Money matters,” GOP strategist Rick Wilson replied.

“There were 10.7 million dollars spent in the race. About 6.4 million was Republican spending, a — the amount of money you used to spend in the U.S. Senate race — on one House district, in one state, in a relatively affordable media market,” he explained.

“They bought this race out of desperation, but you can’t scale that,” he continued. “You can’t replicate that across district after district in the country. We have outspent the Democratic side of the equation two-to-one in this thing. Those six-plus million dollars made a big difference.”

“This should have been something they could have stayed home and eaten bonbons and watched sports on TV. They didn’t and the reason is the suburbs — particularly outside Charlotte — are starting to weaken for Republican elected officials,” Wilson added.

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/09/rick-wilson-says-gop-victory-in-north-carolina-special-election-is-actually-terrible-news-for-republicans/

[octoberlib]

31. Plus , less than 50%of registered Dems turned out to vote.

[bullwinkle428]

38. Democratic turnout is always lousy in these one-off special elections. People

need to take a chill pill and lay off the panic button.

[octoberlib]

52. Exactly and this special election was held TWICE. I believe 2020 will be a better opportunity to

flip this seat.

[octoberlib]

29. We didn't turn out. Less than 50% of registered Dems showed up to vote.

Elderly, white , evangelical voters always turn out full force. We were out performed heavily in rural districts. We need to stop with this nonsense.

[Sneederbunk]

33. If nothing else, the process exposed Republican voter fraud.

[Turbineguy]

36. NC 09

2016 population 778,477.

All trump has to do is get Democrats to stay home.

[librechik]

37. same ol same ol

ballot shenanigans that won't be revealed on time. Probably. It's a depressing tradition in that neck o the woods.

[TheFarseer]

39. Can we still gloat

And say how much trouble Trump is in when he BARELY wins re-election? I’m sick of ALMOST winning.

[dustyscamp]

41. People only care about certain elections

The 2020 election will have a way more massive turnout compared to the 2018. Don't get cocky guys

[elleng]

53. No.

Nice try.