Attacks In Saudi Arabia Are A Recipe For $100 Oil
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/09/14/a-recipe-for-100-oil/#60b372584dbb
Over the years, I have often been asked about scenarios that could rapidly drive oil prices higher. My response is always that the worst case scenario is an incident that takes a large amount of oil production offline in Saudi Arabia.
Why Saudi Arabia? After all, the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia are the world's leading oil producers, with each topping 10 million barrels per day (BPD) in 2018.
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For perspective, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), between 2008 and 2018, the shale oil boom in the U.S. added 5.9 million BPD of oil to the world's oil markets. That means that the attacks in Saudi Arabia have knocked offline the equivalent of the entire U.S. shale boom. I have argued that without the U.S. shale boom, oil prices would have never dropped back below $100/bbl.
Andrew Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates, said This is a big deal. Fearing the worst, I expect that the market will open up $5 to $10 per barrel on Sunday evening. This is 12 to 25 cents per gallon for gasoline.
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