Taking bets on the post convention bump

[MisterGamut]

Traditionally, both sides get a bump in the polls after their respective conventions. Personally, I'd be surprised if Romney gets more than a 2 point bump after the fiasco in Tampa. Opinions?

[cthulu2016]

1. This is an odd calendar. The DNC starts before an RNC bounce would be official.

Any poll trying to measure an isolated RNC bounce would have to be conducted on a major holiday weekend. And by Monday the DNC has started.

I don't see there being any clean measurement.

But if the is such a measurement I would guess 3-4%.

[MisterGamut]

2. Good point

I hadn't considered the holiday weekend.

[MrModerate]

3. But will they consider it . . .

A fiasco?

While it seems obvious to me (keeping in mind that I'm watching this from outside the US), that Republicans stumbled from one clunker to another throughout the convention and "fiasco" doesn't seem too strong a word to describe it -- what do their fans say? Did the convention successfully engage the party base? Did they win over any undecideds with the 'Mitt is Not a Robot' charm offensive? Did they toss out enough red meat to keep the animals gnashing their teeth?

To me it seemed . . . inept. Just how I'd expect a Romney administration to run. As bad as Bush, but not as funny.

Bump prediction? A zit.

[nanabugg]

4. Ok, i predicted the stock market bump after Romney speech. I predict a slump instead of a bump

after the convention within in 10 days.

[MisterGamut]

5. There was a stock market bump?

Only because there was a drop on Thursday as far as I can see.

[Skip Intro]

6. Are we talking about a particular poll?

I check RCP for Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls.

Gallup usually has Obama up by more than Rasmussen.

As of today, 8/31, Gallup has Obama up by 1, and Rasmussen has Romney up by 1.

From those numbers, I say by Wednesday of next week, Romney will be up by 3 in each.

Then a week later Obama will have a similar bounce.

Then a week later, we'll be back to a virtual tie.

What are we betting?

[MisterGamut]

7. What are we betting?

Why, honor of course. The huzzahs one elicits for a job well done. Gloating rights. Ya know, bupkiss.

[Skip Intro]

8. Ah, I see.

Then I've placed my bet.

We'll see...

[DemzRock]

9. Rasmussen...

R up 4.

Real polls Obama climbes a point or 2.

[longship]

10. TPM Electoral Score Card has WI, MI, IA, VA, NC, and FL dead heats.

They put:

Obama 258
Romney 191 (where he has been stuck for some time)

Myself a Michigander, I don't believe MI is that close. I see no R&R bumper stickers in my very conservative area. There just doesn't seem to a lot of excitement about Romney/Ryan. That's gotta be worrisome for them.

Here's the link: TPM Electoral Scorecard