All Eyes Are Shifting to the Senate

[RandySF]

My National Journal colleagues Drew Gerber and Kyle Trygstad presented their latest Hotline’s Senate Power Rankings, sequencing the top 10 seats in order of vulnerability. More or less, I agree with their rankings and analysis, but where I most disagree is Maine, where Susan Collins is seeking reelection. Drew and Kyle put Maine behind North Carolina; I would put it ahead in vulnerability.

My view is that Collins’s chances put her just barely behind McSally and Gardner. Yes, Collins was last reelected with a very impressive 67 percent of the vote, normally a sign of great strength even six years later. But, consider first that the 67 percent was in 2014, a fabulous year for Republicans up and down the ballot. Second, Collins did extremely well among groups with whom she is unlikely to do even remotely as well this time, particularly given her support of Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination and vote for President Trump’s tax cuts.

The 2014 exit polls showed that Collins carried 37 percent of the vote among self-described liberals and 39 percent from Democrats. Anybody think she will remotely do that again? What about winning 69 percent of independents and 72 percent of moderates. This is not to predict that she will lose, just that this is likely to be an extremely difficult race and that it has a higher chance of going Democratic than several others.

After Arizona, Colorado, and Maine, Democrats are likely to need at least one more, and that would require a fairly substantial wave. Democrats need the suburbs to move in their direction, particularly among college-educated women, as strongly next November as last November. They need to pick up one or both of the Georgia seats—incumbent David Perdue and a seat expected to be vacated by Johnny Isakson, who is stepping down for health reasons—and/or beating Thom Tillis of North Carolina. That means suburban voters outside of Atlanta, Charlotte and the Research Triangle being as angry at Republicans as we saw in so many Southern Congressional races last year.

Or, they could pick up Iowa or an open seat in Kansas, but the latter is likely possible only if controversial former Secretary of State Kris Kobach wins the GOP nomination. Beyond that, beating John Cornyn in Texas and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky seem a bit too far for Democrats to win this time.



https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/all-eyes-are-shifting-senate

[mnhtnbb]

1. I was at a fund raiser for our Dem NC governor

Roy Cooper last week. He said that the Republican Governors group have targeted him as their #1 to defeat. He barely squeaked by when he was elected in 2016, but I think the stunt the Republicans pulled here last week when they overrode his budget veto could backfire on them.

The point is a lot of Republican $$ is going to be coming in to NC for the governor race, and I suspect a lot of outside $$ to support Tillis, too.

We are going to need all hands on deck and outside Dem support too. Re electing Cooper is quite doable, and we could get rid of Tillis, too, as well as gain some Congressional Reps due to the gerrymandered districts we've been dealing with are finally going to be redrawn.

[Baltimike]

2. He who casts the votes decide nothing. He who COUNTS the votes decide *everything*

Methinks Collins has enjoyed some...um...latitude. Just sayin'

[Celerity]

3. The current state of the 13 remotely flippable 2020 Senate seats

We need a plus 4 net to flip the Senate to a 51-49 Dem advantage (so no power sharing agreements needed at all) as it stands, and a plus 5 net if Paedo Moore is not the Rethug Alabama nominee (and even that bastard will be hard for Jones to beat in a POTUS year in Alabama) and we lose Doug Jones. We should absolute hold all our other seats. Jeanne Shaheen in NH is the only one that is probably not a 99% lock, with the Rethugs choosing between Don Bolduc, former U.S. Army brigadier general, Bill O'Brien, former Speaker of the New Hampshire House of Representatives, Kelly Ayotte, former U.S. Senator and former Attorney General of New Hampshire, Scott 'Pickup' Brown, U.S. Ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, former U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, and 2014 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate from New Hampshire, and the lunatic Rump stooge (and Hope Hicks' ex BF/verbal abuser), Corey Lewandowski. Bolduc and Ayotte are probably their best shots there (with Bolduc worrying me the most), but I feel really good about our chances to hold it, due to Rump being between 11 and 17 points (depending on the poll) underwater overall in NH.


These are all the remotely possible races where we can flip, all 13 of them. Some are very much a stretch, and also we are having a lot of big names refuse to run, in fact, all the arguably best candidates in 11 of the 13 seats have all refused, so far, to run.


These are the only 2 states ATM with our strongest possible candidates running:

Arizona Mark Kelly has a great chance at beating McSally. This was (until Hickenlooper got smart) the only state so far that we had the best potential candidate already running.

Colorado Hickenlooper now running makes it 90-95% that we flip this. Even if you do not think he is the best on policy, he still is the most electable. All I ask is that he knocks it off with the red-baiting (saying progressives are bringing back Stalin and Marx's policies), which is asinine and plays into the Rethug's hands. I would much prefer Joe Neguse or Andrew Romanoff to Hickenlooper strictly on policy, but Hickenlooper looks like a lock for sure atm.


Now the ones who do NOT have our strongest candidates running as of yet:


Alaska (I hope Mark Begich, our ex US Senator there, runs versus Sullivan, he has said he was not, but now may change his mind.) If Begich ends up completely declining, then it will probably be between Ethan Berkowitz, the mayor of Anchorage, and Forrest Dunbar, Anchorage assemblyman and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2014.

Maine (Susan Rice, who has said no quite emphatically, would have been the best to knock out the POS hypocrite Collins IMHO, but hopefully we can find another great one, it looks likely to be Sara Gideon atm, I think Gideon can take out Collins, just was more sure on Rice, but she is not going to run.)

Montana (The most glaring one, probably, grrrr as Bullock is basically the only one of ours who would have a great chance at beating Daines, I think Bullock would defeat him, but he has said dozens of times he will not run, I just heard him say it again today. Only redeemable way this works is if Biden makes him his VP pick, which I fully support, as that ticket is the hardest to attack for Rump and the Rethugs.) I think we MIGHT have a shot if Brian Schweitzer changes his mind and runs.

Tennessee (open Rethug seat, due to Alexander retiring, I so hope Tim McGraw (yes the superstar singer, who said for years he would run when he was 50, and he is 52 now) reconsiders his turndown, he would have the best shot from all I have seen, most of the other candidates we have are already one time losers, some just last year, or pretty unknown. The two I see who are the best should McGraw not change his mind are Jeff Yarbro and James Mackler)

Georgia With Isakson retiring (there will be an interim Repug appointed for the last year) There are now TWO seats we can flip. Stacey Abrams and Sally Yates would have had the best chances by far to beat Perdue and Rethug X, but each one has said no over and over, so it is going to be much harder I fear, even though Perdue is weak, and a shit campaigner. So far it looks like the best of the rest are Teresa Tomlinson, Jon Ossoff, Stacey Evans, Sarah Riggs Amico, Jason Carter (Jimmy's grandson), Kasim Reed,and Michelle Nunn.

Kansas (open Rethug seat due to Roberts retiring, the right candidate for us has a shot, maybe Kathleen Sebelius, but she also just said no, and a big local paper says that really hurts our chances This is a carbon copy of Montana, just swap in Sebelius for Bullock, its a Red state and all the insiders say she is only Dem who can win.)

Iowa (Cindy Axne and Vilsack, probably our 2 best chances to beat Ernst, both have declined to run, but I have hope we can find another great candidate, Theresa Greenfield (I think she will be the Dem winner) or Abby Finkenauer look to be the best of the rest, this is like Maine to me)

North Carolina (our two best candidates by far, Foxx and Stein, have both said no, grrr, I so hope one, especially Foxx, re-considers) Tillis is so ripe for the picking if we get one of those 2 to run, and still may have a shot if it is another, Cal Cunningham perhaps, or Erica Smith, but both will have a harder time that Stein or Foxx would have had. This one is so so irritating me.

now the two wishful thinking states:

Kentucky This is probably the 2nd toughest. Andy Beshear might have had a shot at dumping McTurtle, but he is running for Governor, so perhaps Amy McGrath is who we are going to have to roll with. It is not impossible, due to McConnell being truly hated even by some Rethugs, his overall approval numbers are worse than Rump by far, amongst the bottom in all the Senate. Overall a huge reach, but so hope Moscow Mitch goes DOWN. McGrath needs to make no more errors like the one she did right at kickoff (saying she would have voted yes for Kavanaugh for SCOTUS. The same thing crushed Bredesen in TN in 2018, it so depressed our base turnout.) Other possible options to McGrath might be Rocky Adkins, Matt Jones, Greg Fischer, Jack Conway, and wild card Ashely Judd (yes the actress.)

Texas Cornyn in Texas is the toughest reach, IMHO, even if Beto runs (which I so doubt he will.) Cornyn is streets ahead of Cruz in terms of TX popularity. I like Amanda Edwards a lot, I hope she wins the Primary, but, I do not see a pathway to anyone beating Cornyn unless something massive breaks our way. MJ Hegar is the Democratic frontrunner atm. She barely lost for the TX-31 seat in 2018, partially because the worst Dem in the House, Henry Cuellar, actively supported, raised funds for, and campaigned for the Rethug John Carter against Hegar.


Conclusions:

We would need to win FIVE of those 13 to flip it to 51-49 (so no 50/50 power sharing deals needed) IF Jones goes down in Alabama, and only CO is even close to one that I would say is a pretty good chance to label a semi-lock, and some are just downright so so hard, even if the best candidates change their minds and run.

My true target is 6 flips, so we are at 52-48, and thus negate Manchin and Sinema, who vote with Trumpa and the Rethugs 55% of the time, far more than any other Democratic Senators. I SO hope Hickenlooper does not become the 3rd member of that posse, lolol.

Schumer and Cortez Masto have been so poor at recruiting the best candidates, it is one of the biggest stories of 2020 so far. I am going to give up on pulling the people who I think are strongest in ME, IA, (those two I can be happy with who we have), 1 seat of the two in GA (Abrams is deffo not running), TX, and KY. We just have to roll with who we have there now. AZ and CO now have our best possible, so that leaves:

AK (Begich run!)
MT (Bullock run! or if he is VP, or if he refuses, Schweitzer run!)
TN (Tim McGraw run!)
KS (Sebelius run!)
NC (Foxx and/or Stein run!)
GA (2 seats) (Yates run! No Abrams so hopefully we can find another strong candidate from that list above, perhaps Ossoff and/or Jason Carter, Jimmy's grandson.)

IF all those above change their minds and run, plus we win CO and AZ I can say, with at least 60% confidence we will hit at least 6 flips, and maybe, IF Rump just gets TRULY crushed and Rethug turnout is horrid, win 11 of the 13, and if he goes down with my biggest possible EC count giving us EVERY remotely possible EV, we may get all 13, plus keep Jones. If that happened we would have 60 seats, so a filibusterer proof majority.

Finally, one of the dead Red lock states is by far the best bet to be a huge surprise (in the Rump is crushed scenario), that being Mike Rounds in SD going down, hopefully to ex-Senator Tim Johnson's son, Brendan Johnson. The max possible EC victory count by the way, that paved the way for a 13 out of 13 sweep plus Jones holding and SD even maybe flipped, was our Dem POTUS nominee 472 - Rump 66.