Truckers are becoming more pessimistic about the US economy
America's $800 billion trucking industry has been in a recession since the beginning of 2019, according to ACT Research. The culprits: President Donald Trump's trade war and a glut of trucking capacity.
And while some factors, like the uptick of retail indicators and a surge in truckload volumes, should give trucking companies hope for 2020, Cowen's third-quarter carrier survey indicates that truckers are getting more and more pessimistic about where the economy is headed.
In the Cowen survey, 62% of carriers said they are not "more confident in the direction of the economy than they were three months ago." Last quarter, only 48% expressed that pessimism, while 52% said they were confident in the direction of the economy.
Cowen's team of logistics analysts posited that "continued tariff talk, no trade deal with China yet, and now an increase in tensions in the Middle East over oil" were all dragging down carrier outlooks.
That hasn't translated to large-scale recession fears among truckers. Under a third of carriers in the survey said they anticipated a macro-recession to slam the American economy in the next six months.
What's notable about the Cowen survey -- compared to previous reports from owner-operators calling 2019 a "bloodbath" -- is that this study also includes the viewpoints of larger trucking fleets, some with more than 250 in their fleet.
Larger trucking companies tend to be insulated during times of trucking recessions, but major carriers like J.B. Hunt, Knight-Swift, and Schneider have been hit in 2019, too. One public trucking company even reported its net income tumbled from $2.5 million in Q2 2018 to $1,000 this year.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/truckers-are-becoming-more-pessimistic-about-the-us-economy/ar-AAHxiHs?li=BBnbfcN
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