The World Knows an Apocalyptic Pandemic Is Coming

[brooklynite]

(nb - written by a personal friend who is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist in the subject area)

Foreign Affairs

A new independent report compiled at the request of the United Nations secretary-general warns that there is a “very real threat” of a pandemic sweeping the planet, killing up to 80 million people. A deadly pathogen, spread airborne around the world, the report says, could wipe out almost 5 percent of the global economy. And we’re not ready.

The ominous analysis was compiled by an independent panel, the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB), which was assembled last year in response to a request from the office of the U.N. secretary-general, and convened jointly by the World Bank and World Health Organization (WHO). Co-chaired by the former WHO head and former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland and the head of the international Red Cross, Elhadj As Sy, the GPMB commissioned expert studies and issued a scathing attack on the political, financial, and logistical state of pandemic preparedness affairs.

“Preparedness is hampered by the lack of continued political will at all levels,” read the report. “Although national leaders respond to health crises when fear and panic grow strong enough, most countries do not devote the consistent energy and resources needed to keep outbreaks from escalating into disasters.”

With no intention of degrading the GPMB’s effort, I must sadly say that this core message has been shouted from the rafters many times before, with little discernable impact on tone-deaf political leaders, financial enterprises, or multinational institutions. There’s no reason to think this time will be any different. It’s hard to know what, shy of a genuinely devastating pandemic of killer influenza or some currently unknown microbe, will motivate global leaders to take microscopic threats seriously.

[Thekaspervote]

1. This!! Archeologists have uncovered ancient bacteria and virus that have been frozen in the

Permafrost for eons. As the climate continues to warm and these sleeping giants awaken they will pale the great plague.

[bdamomma]

2. I truly believe it

who knows what is going to be unleashed.

[defacto7]

3. As I understand it those ancient viruses are of little concern

since we probably already have immunity. The real danger are the present mutating viruses and bacteria from improper use of antibiotics by humans and also with livestock especially pigs and chickens. That should concern us.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

12. K&R I don't underestimate this threat; nor...

Do I underestimate a biological weapon being unleashed by desperate people.

[Chemisse]

52. I don't understand how we could have immunity.

Since these pathogens are constantly mutating and evolving, what was buried eons ago would be completely foreign to our bodies.

[defacto7]

59. That's what I always thought until I read otherwise

in a book by a geneticist. The author was Adam Rutherford I believe and he made a convincing argument. I don't think the idea was to dismiss the possibility but the probability of an ancient virus or bacteria affecting us is almost nothing. We have much worse issues to deal with now because we are so much more closely related to the present germs. We have way too much in common with viruses that affect domestic birds and pigs and those will probably be the source of our next pandemics.

[Chemisse]

62. That sounds interesting. Maybe I should read it! n/t

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

76. Which book by Rutherford?

He's written several, and I'd happily read the one you're referencing.

[defacto7]

79. A Brief History of Everyone Who Ever Lived.

It's a good basic explanation of what genetics can and cannot tell us. It debunks a lot of false information and hyperbole put out by genetic testing companies as well as underlines the importance of continued genetic research. It's fascinating how closely related all humans are genetically, historically and genealogically, your Majesty.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

80. Thank you.

I've just put it on hold at my library.

I've read several other books about genetics and human evolution recently.

DNA, USA by Bryan Sykes. He's a Brit who travels around this country collecting and analyzing DNA here. He's also the guy who wrote The Seven Daughters of Eve.

Who We Are and How We Got Here by David Reich. Absolutely fascinating. Mostly analysis of ancient DNA. As we can recover more and more old DNA what we're learning is more interesting than ever.

[defacto7]

81. I'll look those up.

I always appreciate a good book recommendation.

Thank you.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

83. You also might want to read

The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution by Gregory Colchran. It's about 10 years old, so more has been learned, but the main thrust of the book is that, despite the common wisdom that homo sapiens are not evolving any more, the truth is that human evolution has accelerated in the past 10,000 years, coinciding with when we collectively started farming and building cities.

[cwydro]

13. Which archeologists? Where?

What ancient bacteria?

Links?

[Jeffersons Ghost]

21. The link is at the top of the OP...

Nothing to see here folks. Move along

[cwydro]

32. I'll admit I skimmed it, but I saw nothing about archaeologists and ancient bacteria.

[Thekaspervote]

37. Links

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/01/24/575974220/are-there-zombie-viruses-in-the-thawing-permafrost

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170504-there-are-diseases-hidden-in-ice-and-they-waking-up

http://discovermagazine.com/2018/jun/something-stirs

[cwydro]

39. Thanks! I'll look forward to reading this.

Fascinating stuff!

[smirkymonkey]

6. There is no guarantee that it won't be them.

They are just as human and just as susceptible to a deadly virus as anyone else.

[Hortensis]

23. Don't forget, devastated populations don't work and

consume as they did before. The support structures for production and consumption don't work as they did before. Revenue streams are devastated. Devastated planets don't necessarily recover from crashed economies withing a decade. And even wealthy people can't guarantee those they care about will all come through okay, including their favorite cooks and yacht captains.

Not to say there aren't some vicious nutcases out there, like possibly billionaire Robert Mercer, but those aren't "They" or even "Them."

[smirkymonkey]

27. I wasn't saying that you were. No need to get defensive.

[Coventina]

5. Can't bring myself to care. The world needs far fewer humans. n/t

[ret5hd]

10. Kinda with you there.

[roamer65]

11. I wholeheartedly agree.

[Marengo]

15. Does the world need you?

[Coventina]

19. The world doesn't need anybody.

I assume I would be missed by my friends and family, but the world would certainly keep going.

I certainly have no illusions about my worth.

I do what I can to make the world a better place. And I tread as lightly as I can on the earth.

That's about all anyone can do. But most of us choose not to.

And that's the problem.

[Marengo]

41. If you're nothing special, and the world doesn't need you, what are you waiting for?

[Coventina]

45. Missed the point entirely, but you know that. n/t

[Marengo]

50. Oh, so you are something special. Got it. Not so much so those who are more likely to become...

Casualties in your welcomed pandemic than yourself. Acknowledge it or not, living in a developed nation gives you are far greater chance of survival. Your privileged position affords you the luxury of not caring a whit about the horror, suffering, and death inflicted on the world’s poorest and most vulnerable.

[Coventina]

57. I'm not rising to the bait of your lies. I never said any of those things.

You're adorable.

[Marengo]

63. Oh please, what you said betrays your privilege.

[Coventina]

64. You're hilarious!

[Marengo]

66. Privilege, in its many forms, can be manifested in ways unintended and unrecognized. You've...

Done just that, first-worlder.. You cannot be so unaware as to not understand that your wished-for pandemic would impact the populations in the underdeveloped and underprivileged world on a far greater scale. There’s no guarantee you would be spared, and by your own admission that would be no loss, but you would likely have a greater chance of survival.

[Coventina]

68. No matter how many times you repeat a lie it doesn't make it true.

[Marengo]

69. It's no lie that you're privileged, and no lie that your first world status affords you a greater...

Degree of safety in the event of a pandemic. It’s no lie that your attitude is essential misanthropic at the expense of other less fortunate humans. It’s no lie that I have never heard such a concept expressed in the lesser developed parts of the world in which I have traveled.

[Coventina]

75. You are scolding an entity that only exists in your mind.

The more you construct what you think is me, the further you get from any semblance of reality.

[Marengo]

85. What is your race, economic background and status, health and medical treatment history...

Access to health care, access to potable water and clean food, etc., etc.. Answer honestly and we’ll see just how far off the mark I am.

[Coventina]

86. Riiiiiiiiight.

I'm not playing your game.

[Marengo]

87. Uh huh, just as I expected. I must not be far off the mark after all.

[Coventina]

88. Again, you couldn't be more wrong.

Your construction is not anywhere near reality.

But go ahead and keep tilting at it. It's highly entertaining.

[Marengo]

89. Prove me wrong. What is your race, economic background and status, health and medical...

Treatment history. Access to health care, access to potable water and clean food, state of infrastructure in your municipality of residence, available first responder services, etc., etc.

[Coventina]

90. OK! OK! You win! Here it is: I'm mixed race,

the day before my 8th birthday, our family lost our home, we were then homeless until I was in high school.
(If you can call the hovel we rented with no sewage system a home).

I currently live on a Superfund site on the edge of a Native American reservation.

I have a genetic heart condition and severe osteoarthritis due to a birth defect. Oh, and I'm on the wrong side of 50.
So yeah, I feel I am in a GREAT place to survive a global pandemic.

But please do lecture me on my amazing life of special privilege. I am SUPES excited to hear it! Please don't disappoint!!!

[Marengo]

91. My God, you are oblivious to your privilege. Do you honestly believe your list of pitiables are in..

Any way comparable? Clearly your access to health care has been sufficient enough to allow you to survive your “heart condition” to the “wrong side of 50”, how many in the underdeveloped world have that luxury? Do you have access to treatment for your osteoarthritis? Are you suggesting the conditions on your “superfund” site are comparable to Khayelitsha or Kibera? Do you have enough potable water for your hygiene, drinking, and culinary needs? A flush toilet or open sewers? Food free of disease? What race to you identify as, or have been identified as? “Mixed” is meaningless, this I know from personal experience. To summarize, whether you care to admit it or not, you ARE in a greater position to survive a pandemic, even far less likely to contract the disease in the first place than the millions who inhabit the slums of our world. They, in far greater numbers, will bear the suffering of your welcomed pandemic than the likes of you. Nice work and thank you, your reply proved my point.

[Coventina]

92. Hooray!! I knew you'd be full of wrathful scorn!!

I love how you pressed and pressed for my race, and then tell me it means nothing!

That's awesome!!




Oh, and then you want to know my location with it's urban services, and then, when I don't live with urban services, suddenly I'm far better off!

HAHAHAHAHAHA!



Wow! Thanks! You've made my day!!

[Marengo]

93. You are honestly claiming that you have no greater access to services than the residents of the...

Worlds poorest slums, or that the quality of these services are comparable to the same? What is the source of your potable water? What type of sewage system do you use? What is the source of your food? I have noticed you’ve never actually answered those questions with any details. I also noticed you dodged my question as to what race you identify as, or have been identified as. Why is that? “Mixed” is meanigless and a dodge, as you didn’t specify which races you are a mixture of.

[Coventina]

94. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Oh, I'm starting to see your sinister ploy!

You are trying to laugh me to death like the Joker!!

[lunatica]

65. Give it a break Chuck Todd!

[Marengo]

67. Do you also believe a pandemic resulting in mass human death is needed and desirable?

[lunatica]

70. It would save the planet, which would give the remaining survivors

a chance to do it right. But that’s not what the issue is here. It’s you deciding to take umbrage over a simple statement and making a mountain out of a molehill over it, demanding the person change what they said. It’s a pointless stance on your part no matter how passionately you think your opinion even matters. Give it a break. Your opinion is not as important as you think. No one’s is. Your outrage is manufactured which reminded me of Chuck Todd who loves pretending to be passionate about a subject when, in fact, he’s just being a contrarian to make himself look intelligent.

[Marengo]

71. Spoken knowing you would have greater odds of being among the "remaining survivors" no doubt.

[lunatica]

72. Nope.

Now that’s a pitiful argument. I am 71 years old and quite OK with the idea of what getting older means, including my death. I don’t fear it at all, no matter how it comes.

At my age I know the chances of me dying in a pandemic are pretty high. If it happens, then it happens.

[Marengo]

73. And what is your race, economic background and status, health and medical treatment history...

Access to health are, access to potable water and clean food, etc., etc., Then, let us compare all that to someone living in Cité Soleil.

[lunatica]

74. I say let's not.

Your gotcha crap is obvious.

[Marengo]

84. As I expected, and yes indeed I "gotcha". Gotcha figured out that is.

[First Speaker]

17. Please delete this post

[Marengo]

18. Let it stand, I'm curious to see if that poster claims an exemption.

[Coventina]

20. See my reply to your post. n/t

[roamer65]

46. In a pandemic, no one is special or gets an exemption.

The virus does not discriminate. If it happens, we all “roll the dice”.

Simply put, we have exceeded the carrying capacity of this planet and one way or another the situation will be corrected. Probably by war or Mother Nature herself.

I would prefer it by stringent birth control laws, rather than through disease, famine, war or genocide.

[Aristus]

29. I don't think it was directed personally at you.

I think it was an abstract observation.

[First Speaker]

38. It never occurred to me that it was...

[Hortensis]

25. It would be irresponsible to suggest nihilists start improving

the planet with themselves, but who more appropriate to lead the way to a better world than those who don't care?

[Coventina]

26. Apathy is not nihilism. Check your dictionary. n/t

[Hortensis]

33. I was afraid you'd go with the most common definition.

Existential nihilism for many, then. And apathy for you, of course. I'm actually more like you for myself, but I have grandchildren. What I would want for myself in a dystopian emergency is not at all the same as what I want for them.

[Coventina]

35. I can understand that. I am honestly sorry for future generations of humans.

They are going to pay dearly for the crimes of their ancestors.

As I've said elsewhere in the thread, I've done my best to preserve the planet.

And, it's not that I don't care for humanity at all.

It's simply that I care more for creatures that have been at our (lack of) mercy.

[Hortensis]

36. I've known a lot of people who care more for animals,

some much more, almost idealizing them, and either way I don't see it. We're animals also.

I have a lot more hope than you for the future. We've already lost so much, but how many who were never close to the earth through the joys of gardening and watching birds and bees know it or care? How many of us grieve for the loss, long, long before we were born, of many thousands of migrating birds overhead and on our waters? Many homeowners refuse to buy properties with trees, even cut them down, to avoid raking leaves.

For all the noise about sea level rise, by far most properties won't be affected, and those who are will move. Disasters always force change refused before. And I've seen how amazingly fast we can build and problems decline and even recover when we want them to.

Most of us older people aren't going anywhere soon, we vote in higher numbers than anyone else and bear a great deal of responsibility, and now that awareness is finally creating the power to act I believe we have a special duty to make it happen. To not let our nation decline into poverty.

It will be different, but there are other things to be happy about. Most people will adjust to different realities, and through technology, future generations in most places have the potential to live in unprecedented prosperity and wellbeing.

I didn't watch last night's climate gathering because thinking about it too much depresses me terribly. I'm hopeful, though, now that we've finally, after 50 years of my life, reached this turning point and would like to be here to see what we create from it. We're storing genetic material of disappearing species of plants and animals, and it's a comfort to know that. It's not being done for no reason, after all.

[lostnfound]

54. I see it as a kind of depression. People should be gentle when some seem to have given up nt

[Hortensis]

55. Yes. I was in a bad mood from all the negativism and apologize.

[sarisataka]

34. Interesting viewpoint nt

[Disaffected]

40. I disagree with the first sentence

but agree wholeheartedly with the second.

The earth cannot support an arbitrarily large number of people so, population growth must stop at some future time.

Here are the likely mechanisms by which that will happen:

. war
. disease
. famine
. genocide
. birth control

Take your pick.......

[roamer65]

47. I favor mandatory birth control.

I would like to see us avoid the top 4 you mention.

[Chemisse]

53. That may be true, but those humans will be our loved ones or ourselves.

And even if they are strangers, they have lives and hopes and dreams and it is sad to see them killed.

[Coventina]

58. I'm well aware of that.

I'm also well aware that our species has chosen to go down this suicidal path.

[wasupaloopa]

7. Is that anything like rapture?

[stopdiggin]

8. regrettably -- there is probably no good solution here

human nature is what it is. And false measures and erroneous preparation have their adverse consequences as well. (think of the energy and resources devoted to bomb shelters, missile silos and survivalist camps/cache). I'm a strong proponent of disaster training and preparedness -- but I have real doubts whether we are mentally or emotionally geared toward any more than superficial measures. In short, we all still want to go home and play with the kids at night.

[pwb]

14. A atmospheric Nuclear explosion and a virus factory explosion by Trumps Putty

within a month? yea.

[MFM008]

16. Something like

The 1918 flu which killed 100 million or more and was worse than the black plague unleashed today would
Be the worst case scenario.
You should read about this unusual flu.
As scary as ebola.

[mahina]

22. Took my great uncle.

Among untold others.

[maxsolomon]

24. Color me a skeptic.

I'd be shocked if a pandemic killed a 1,000.

[NickB79]

42. The 2009 influenza pandemic killed 284,000 globally

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

What color you want?

[maxsolomon]

60. Well, I stand corrected.

that's .004% of 80 million, however.

[NickB79]

61. The movie 'Contagion' was a very good movie based on this idea

Extremely realistic, IMO. No quick, magical cure, just a long hard slog towards a vaccine as millions died globally. Society didn't crumble, but it was affected severely.

[True Dough]

51. There have been warnings of pandemics for decades

I think it's best that we're as prepared as possible, but I refuse to lose sleep over the prospect. The apocalyptic scenarios grow wearisome.

[Runningdawg]

28. I made a similar comment on a thread about birds disappearing and was laughed at

Hell I wouldn't even have considered it as a cause but I have an online only friend who is an ER Dr in Syria and also a bird lover. He told me they can tell when war and death are coming and they leave, just like rats leaving a ship.

[UniteFightBack]

44. There was a report about the birds disappearing this morning on the news. Climate change. nt

[Hortensis]

30. Max, I'll color you uninformed. We lose more than that

each day choking on steak and erasers.

But 5% dead would leave 95% of us. Everyone but Coventina and others who also feel the world would be better without them should plan to shelter safely at home. Store 2 gallons of water a day per person in thick containers, lifted off acidic concrete floors; the thin ones leak over time.

Reportedly, it's been possible in the past for some flu epidemics to keep themselves going for years, but modern medicine should help big time, and even if it came to that, with modern communications most of us should stay safe enough by preparing for repeated outbreaks the way we do hurricanes.

So reliable communications and enough food, meds, etc. for at least several weeks until the expected contagious period plus disruptions in hard-hit areas. I've seen FEMA lines in California, and it'd be much regretted to be among the ones who stand in them IF it could have been easily avoided. We just buy extra of food we'll eat anyway. Good news is that research has found most canned goods will actually last decades and still taste essentially the same and still be nourishing. So people who don't like canned veggies can set a stock in, just in case, and forget them.

[TrunKated]

31. this one started it -

[not_the_one]

43. could be the best possible future for the planet

We've all seen the photo taken from space, probably from the moon, or a satellite looking back at earth...

Earth is an incredibly beautiful orb, floating in a blackness filled with varying sizes of pinpricks of light, the billions of immediately visible stars/galaxies/constellations, whatever is out there... What we DON'T see is infinite...

As you come closer to the Earth, hanging there in space, you don't realize that this beautiful orb has cancer. It is slowly being killed by a life form on it.

To be clear, there are millions of life forms ON it, but only one life form is actively causing the destruction of its own habitat, which is the entire planet.

I am an atheist, but grew up in a fundamental christian church. I know the story. I was baptized at age 11 because I knew it was expected of me, and I was old enough to understand the purpose behind it.

As I grew into my teenage years I started to question things. It didn't make sense, and the contradictions with it were to great to ignore. I finally realized that I should make my own decisions as to what I believed.

My decision was that I don't believe it, and there is absolutely no evidence of its legitimacy. It is just one of many creation stories created to explain the things that at the time, were unexplainable. It was my conclusion that the story is illogical, and (IMHO) nothing more than a pathetic attempt at self justification.

But I digress...

If you think about it, the cancerous life form that is destroying the earth, ITSELF has cancer. The cancer within the cancer is religion.

In the process of humans taking advantage of our dominion, as our religion tells us is our right, we are DESTROYING our dominion.

A pandemic that wipes us out would be the best thing that happened for every other living thing on the planet.

Now THAT is depressing.

[roamer65]

48. People don't seem to get the full ramifications yet of altering our atmospheric gas mix.

The “Goldilocks zone” is a function of distance from our star and also our atmospheric gas mix. By adding CO2, we are literally moving the habitable zone of our planet.

Since the Earth is about 2.5 million miles closer to the Sun at the beginning of Southern Hemisphere summer, we will see the effects there first.

Hopefully people “get it” soon.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

49. 80 million dead doesn't sound "Apocalyptic", unless you're one of the 80 million.

If the plagues in Europe killed 30%-50% of the population, an equivalent modern epidemic would have to kill 2 or 3 Billion to compare in terms of economic/social/political impact.

80 Million dead might be a "best case scenario".

Cheery thoughts.

[MineralMan]

56. Yes. There have been a number of those in history.

Such pandemics are always a possibility, so this article is pretty useless. We had one during WWI.

A novel virus or resistant bacterium for which we have no immunity can appear at any time. Nothing new there. And, given fast worldwide travel, the opportunity for such a thing to spread globally and quickly has never been so real.

We are unprepared for such an event, but it's unclear whether there is any reasonable way to prepare. Most recently, an ebola outbreak created a threat, but the time it took to figure out an effective treatment was far too long. Fortunately for us in North America, the environment isn't friendly for that disease.

There is no news in this article. The threat is always there, and we will always ignore it until the outbreak occurs.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

77. This has been being predicted for a very long time now.

All too often the specter of the 1918 flu pandemic is invoked, and there are a lot of reasons why that may not be a model to be concerned with.

And as has already been pointed out, we may not have as much to worry about ancient viruses and bacteria as some think, that we may already be immune to most of them. Keep in mind, that humans are born with immunity to many thousands of things. Things our distant ancestors were exposed to and have passed resistance down to us.

And yeah, 80 million people really is a tiny fraction of the 7 billion plus people already living here. Which is far too many people, well beyond the long term carrying capacity of the planet. Actually is beyond the near term carrying capacity of our planet.

The good news is that population growth is slowing very rapidly in most of the world. All of the first world countries and some of the third world countries have below replacement rates of birth. Take a look here: http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/total-fertility-rate/ You will need to scroll down a ways to get to the list of countries and their current birth rates. The first 100 of the 190 countries listed have higher than replacement birth rates, but pretty much all of them are reducing their births rapidly.

Or you can look at individual countries like this: type in fertility rate and the name of a country. Here's what I got when I typed fertility rate China: https://www.google.com/search?q=fertility+rate+china&client=firefox-b-1-d&sxsrf=ACYBGNSvL-DTwCyCl9G_kTeb03I-LspSSA:1569174130273&source=lnms&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwinmoCV_eTkAhWWsZ4KHYxgCcUQ_AUIDCgA&biw=1138&bih=545&dpr=1.2

You'll need to click on that long URL, but then you can type in any and all countries that interest you. Note that you'll get a graph that starts in 1960 and compares to two other countries. Just keep on changing the country and you should find the results quite remarkable.

[sdfernando]

78. Killed off by microscopic threats...

H.G. Wells was right way back in 1897.

[McCamy Taylor]

82. War destroys public health--and the US and Russia make money off war.