America's great climate exodus is starting in the Florida Keys

[yortsed snacilbuper]

Mass migration begins as coastal homes are bulldozed in the state facing the biggest threat from climate-driven inundation.

Lori Rittel is stuck in her Florida Keys home, living in the wreckage left by Hurricane Irma two years ago, unable to rebuild or repair. Now her best hope for escape is to sell the little white bungalow to the government to knock down.

Her bedroom is still a no-go zone so she sleeps in the living room with her cat and three dogs. She just installed a sink in the bathroom, which is missing a wall, so she can wash her dishes inside the house now. Weather reports make her nervous. “I just want to sell this piece of junk and get the hell out,” she said. “I don’t want to start over. But this will happen again.

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[edhopper]

1. from the article

By the end of the century, 13 million Americans will need to move just because of rising sea levels, at a cost of $1 million each, according to Florida State University demographer Mathew Haeur, who studies climate migration

That is 13 trillion dollars. But let's roll back any efforts on climate change.

[Webhead]

3. But let's roll back any efforts on climate change.

85 Environmental Rules Being Rolled Back Under Trump
By NADJA POPOVICH, LIVIA ALBECK-RIPKA and KENDRA PIERRE-LOUIS UPDATED Sept. 12, 2019
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/climate/trump-environment-rollbacks.html

President Trump has made eliminating federal regulations a priority. His administration, with help from Republicans in Congress, has often targeted environmental rules it sees as burdensome to the fossil fuel industry and other big businesses.

[theophilus]

7. "By the End of the Century" should not be used anymore in framing this fiasco.

I know you quoted this so it is not your fault. These things are going to happen much sooner than that. We need to show folks that this is happening in our lifetime. Now, basically. The waves might wash over the properties in fifteen years but the time to get out is NOW. Who is going to buy it then? Our government is falling apart. They won't help (possibly). We need to shitcan the predictions that allow the folks with the mostest to think, "Oh, I'll be dead so I don't give a fuck." IMO

[Mike 03]

10. THIS x 1000

Ditto every word of your post.

Global change is here now. Houston just experienced its fourth or fifth 500 Year flood in five years. Miami is build on limestone and there are millions of aging septic tanks being pushed out of the ground and everybody living in southern Florida is living on borrowed time. Trying to "save Florida" will cost an amount of money most Americans can't even contemplate. Same for some of the Louisiana parishes. And there are dozens of other places under fire.

[Arthur_Frain]

18. Yeah, kick this repeatedly.

We’ve blown through every climate change prediction well past the worst case scenario. We’ve got about 30 years before it all comes crashing down around our ears.

[edhopper]

23. True

By the end of the century doesn't mean we it won't cost this in until 2099, it means it will be costing us for the next 2 to 3 generations. starting now! and yes, this is only one small part of the cost of climate change.

[Blue_true]

27. I totally agree. Unless we come up with innovation, things will likely

be very bad within 35 years from now.

[appalachiablue]

48. Tell it! End of century-no way

[EX500rider]

17. "at a cost of $1 million each" Well that seems a little high...lol

So if a family of 4 wants to move to the midwest it will cost them 4 million dollars??

[edhopper]

24. hmm

maybe they mean per house.

[Doodley]

51. The ones who are killed by rising sea levels and extreme weather events won't be moving.

[cwydro]

2. I lived in the Keys for over 20 years.

I left a few years after Wilma, when I realized hurricane season was just too much for me to handle anymore.

[edhopper]

4. Last time I was in the Keys was 10 years ago

A small Key in the lower half. There were 30 new $1 million+ homes for sale.
Crazy.

[cwydro]

6. Yes, one true effect of these hurricanes is that the towns are getting rid of affordable housing.

Homes that were damaged or ruined in the storms were demolished to make room for developers.

Many people lived in trailers in the Keys, most are gone now.

[Hortensis]

13. Many of those people can afford to rebuild as desired.

I hope to see us destroy the ultrawealthy classes while I'm still around, but while they're here there will be money for building on the water. The design and engineering are upgraded, of course.

[Arthur_Frain]

19. Graham Parker wrote a song that had a line in it I loved.

‘Someday there will be a plane,
That only seats one class’.

I think he was hoping for the same thing.

Sorry, but it’s not happening in the way we want it to. We did finally get he planes that would only seat one class. They were cattle car death traps. Still got a few of those flying around.

In a campground right by my home, this year they’ve instituted “premium sites” that you pay extra for. You know, the ones with the views?

Sadly, I don’t think we’re ever getting rich of the Uber rich, or the privilege you pay for, because it’s ingrained into the human psyche. Chapelle caught shit for saying it in his last special, but he’s right. This goes on because we enable it. It will continue to do so because it’s an aspect of human nature.

[Hortensis]

21. Well, our grandparents already did it, and our nation

was in very poor shape at the time, while extremists on left and right were seriously threatening our democracy's continued existence. Deja vu all over again.

One reason this has happened so bad now is a more than quadrupling of planetary wealth in a short period due to new technology. Much of it was channeled into the creation in our nation of about 70,000 uberwealthy families to whom, for those on the right in particular, democracy is a major insult and to all an existential threat. Same for other nations.

The predacious wealthy learned from our grandparents' New Deal reaction and this time have divided the the electorate so we haven't been able to stop them, and they're going after democracy so we can't come together to vote them into oblivion in future. So I believe it's become dicier, but it's not that it can't be and hasn't been done. In other nations also.

In any case, we've let it happen again and we have a big job to do. We're going to need our tax dollars also for it, can't keep up these giant transfer payments of our national wealth to the 70K. Nancy knows:

"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." Nancy Pelosi quoting Justice Louis Brandeis to the nation at the opening of the 116th congress.

[Blue_true]

29. I was at the Gulf and saw a house right on the water's edge, in the water exactly.

The living quarters were elevated. The whole thing looked to be worth several million maybe. Interestingly, it looked like a getaway house instead of a residence.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

5. K&R

[Wounded Bear]

8. Who's gonna buy? Who would insure houses in that zone?

It ends up coming down to economics, but that is a lagging indicator in this case. By the time people realize the economics of the problem, it will be untenable.

[Mike 03]

11. There's a great chapter in the book "The Water Will Come"

I think it's called "Real-Estate Roulette" and it's all about the hot-potato aspect of owning property in Miami Beach. People are buying or holding these properties as long as they can and are trying to time when to get rid of them before living there becomes untenable. They now have "sunny day flooding" in Miami, where it floods because the ocean water comes up through pores in the limestone. The water is contaminated with e coli. It's really going to become a nightmare any year now.

[louis-t]

22. I have a client that wanted to invest in South Beach.

He's an environmental engineer. I referred him to an agent down there. He went for a visit and came back saying he will not buy there. The whole place will be under water in 10 years.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

35. Excellent book.

I've suggested it to people in several threads when rising waters are talked about.

[meadowlander]

28. We all are.

People are buying these properties banking on taxpayers bailing them out when the time comes.

[roamer65]

46. There should be no bailouts.

They should be liable for every penny of their mortgage. We also should not have to pay for their repeated insurance claims.

[dalton99a]

9. Florida Man will be history

From The Economist this week:

[Mike 03]

12. Excellent graphic.

[NickB79]

15. The area of the US most at risk also has the most deniers

And Trump supporters. Amazing.

They truly will suffer for their ignorance.

[Arthur_Frain]

20. Interesting.

I live in AK and I’m wondering how climate change is going to cost us less than it did in 2012. I like the graphic, but that aspect of it gives me pause, nothing costs less. Not ever.

[meadowlander]

30. I guess agriculture will be moving north?

In Seattle, longer warmer summers and less rain means you can grow different crops and for a longer period of the year.

However, the northern states are going to have to accommodate climate refugees and pay the costs of hazard mitigation.

[roamer65]

47. Why should we have to accommodate them?

I don’t see any responsibility for doing so.

[Blue_true]

31. Not really. We're just come and camp out in your backyard.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

36. Based on that I should consider

moving to Oregon or Maine. Although I am currently in a part of NM that should be unaffected, according to that map.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

14. how can that be? Bush attended the 1992 Earth Summit!

[Hortensis]

16. Actually, more people are already settling in inland Florida.

New towns are just kind of popping up, subdivisions with commercial areas to serve them. There have always been inland communities established by Florida natives, ranchers and so on, while later more and more retirees and vacationers preferred the coasts.

The same will be happening all over the country. Even without zoning changes, somehow I doubt these days as many people of ordinary means as before want to build homes on California ridges over canyons lined with flammable fuel, or in the canyons. Especially more isolated ridges and canyons.

Same for land that used to be designated 100-year and even 500-year flood zones anywhere in the Mississippi drainage basin. The shores of the Great Lakes. When we were up there last, the lake levels were hardly below the levels of the shore roads, and we saw homes protected by sandbags and in some cases flooded. Those who rebuild will raise them, assuming land use laws allow rebuilding.

I think people need to understand, though, that the coastal and other waterfront lands aren't just going to be abandoned, not without laws requiring it. Many areas can be protected for some while, or forever, and people who can afford to live there will. Your typical condo building only has an economic life of 30 years or so anyway. And many areas are and will be building sea walls.

Problems like sinking cities and badly crumbling cliffs are, of course, a very different problem from a town on the Gulf of Mexico that's going to need to rezone a few streets by the water to wetlands protection areas and build good sea wall for the rest.

[meadowlander]

32. Insurance companies and banks are way ahead of regulators.

At a certain point, it's going to be impossible to get a mortgage for some of these properties because no one will insure them. At that point, whoever is stuck with the property is stuck with it. Nobody except the government is ever going to buy it.

[Quixote1818]

25. Miami Beach is already having to spend tens of millions on new pumping systems and raising roads

because of flooding on sunny days:

&t=469s

[roamer65]

26. The Great Lakes states need to take control of their immigration.

We need to start restricting it.

We also need to ban companies like Nestle from exporting OUR water.

[friendly_iconoclast]

33. "(T)ake control of their immigration...We need to start restricting it."

How do you propose to keep '*those* people' from moving in?

[cwydro]

38. Hey! How bout a wall?!

Yeah, that’s the ticket!

Lol, you couldn’t pay me to move to that area.

[roamer65]

44. Canada should seriously consider one.

[roamer65]

40. If Dump steals the election, by not being a part of the United States.

Secession.

We have more in common with Canada anyway.

[Blue_true]

34. Do you people take in Florida Men and Florida Women?

Just kidding, we will figure out a way.

[roamer65]

45. We do right now.

Best to move before it gets worse and we shutoff the migration.

[EX500rider]

49. You suggesting internal passports for US citizens?

Or another Civil War if you try and secede?

[friendly_iconoclast]

53. Sure sounds like it...

[FakeNoose]

37. We are very fortunate in the Pittsburgh area

Plenty of clean water, lots of affordable housing (compared to the rest of the eastern coast), higher elevations with nothing near sea level, temperate climate. We have 4 seasons - winters are aren't too bad, summers are very comfortable.

I'd never move to a southern state even though I'm now retired. I'm thanking my lucky stars to be here.

[cwydro]

39. You couldn't pay me to move to that area either.

[FakeNoose]

41. You barely survived Hurricane Wilma

... and we've never had a hurricane in southwestern Pennsylvania. Tornadoes are very rare, the big snowstorms mostly seem to miss us. We're pretty safe here, a lot safer than any beach, shoreline or island, that's for sure.

[Ilsa]

42. And this is just for the US. Consider

how many other people living in low coastal areas around the world will need to migrate. Climate change is a national security threat as well as an American economic threat.

[roamer65]

43. As the regions near the equator become too hot for human existence, they will come north.

..and that band of uninhabitable territory will grow as the CO2 concentration grows.

Cognitive ability of humans will also decline as well, especially when we exceed 1000 ppm.

[FakeNoose]

50. Northern Canada, Alaska and Siberia will become more hospitable

Places where there are few inhabitants now will become much more inviting in the future.
I don't believe I'll live to see that, but my grandson probably will.

[roamer65]

54. You will probably see it.

A few months back CBC News was sounding the alarm that temps in northern Canada are rising faster than expected.

Being near the border has its privileges

[lindysalsagal]

52. Our economy will collapse when we face the destruction of all coastline properties.

All of that real estate becoming worthless won't be those rich people's problem: It will be everyone's.