MS-GOV: Race Moves to Lean Republican

[RandySF]

Mississippi is the second governor's race in the Deep South that is surprisingly competitive for Democrats in 2019 — though they have a much tougher climb than next door in Louisiana.

Popular GOP Gov. Phil Bryant is term-limited. His No. 2, Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, survived a Republican primary and subsequent runoff to capture the GOP nomination. Democrats have one of their strongest statewide candidates in years with Attorney General Jim Hood, but in a state President Trump carried by 18 points, it won't be easy.

The two men couldn't be more different stylistically. Hood is just the type of Democrat who could win in deep, deep red Mississippi — his ads portray him as a good 'ole boy who drives his pickup to church on Sundays, cleans his guns and fixes his tractor. The bespectacled Reeves comes off as more wonkish and serious. Both men have been looming figures in their parties for years, with each being on the ballot — and winning — every four years, dating back to 2003. In a way, this matchup has felt inevitable for years.

"If it's about policy, Jim's in trouble. If it's about personality, Tate's in trouble," said one Republican strategist in the state.

Reeves had a setback after being forced into a bitter runoff with Bill Waller Jr., a former state supreme court chief justice whose father had been a Democratic governor in the 1970s. Waller amassed support from several former Mississippi Republican Party chairs, and he declined to endorse Reeves after he won.

Republicans say the good thing is that at least Waller — who, like Hood, also called for Medicaid expansion and higher teacher pay — didn't endorse the Democratic nominee, a scenario that remains unlikely. Democrats' polling shows Hood is narrowly ahead overall — and the Democrat is making key inroads with former Waller voters, especially more moderate suburban Mississippians. They believe he could get over 40 percent of Waller's voters. Republicans say their polling doesn't worry them, arguing that August primary will be far enough removed from the minds of voters and Republican base voters will come home. While even some in the acknowledge that Reeves is sometimes stilted at retail politicking, many say he's getting better on the stump.



https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/mississippi-governor/mississippi-governors-race-moves-lean-republican

[bitterross]

1. It's never about policy in the South. It's about personality.

Clearly, personality and the letter behind your name are usually far more important than policy is in the South. If policy mattered there would be no red states in the South.