Analysis: A Mike Pence Presidency Is No Longer Just Dinner Party Chatter in DC

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

As House Democrats ponder the politics of impeaching Donald J. Trump, they are weighing the possible outcomes. An impeachment inquiry could weaken the president before next year's election and give the White House back to the Democrats, or it could backfire, the way the GOP's effort to oust Bill Clinton did in 1998. But there's a third option: impeachment could succeed. As a senior staffer on the House Judiciary Committee framed the dilemma, "What if we're left with President Pence?"

That scenario has seemed far-fetched — until this week. At the moment there don't seem to be enough GOP senators who would vote to convict Trump if the Democratic-controlled House passes articles of impeachment against him. But the president hasn't been able to quash "Ukraine-gate," the scandal that erupted after a White House whistleblower reported that Trump pressed Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky for dirt on Joe Biden and his son Hunter. Releasing the transcript of the call, which the White House apparently believed was exculpatory, only intensified the pressure. A recent Fox News poll showed a majority — 51 percent — now want Trump impeached and removed from office. That was the first major poll showing a majority in favor of Trump's ouster.

But it's a separate, unrelated presidential phone call that's making Trump more vulnerable — and a Pence presidency less unlikely.

Trump's October 6 announcement, after a call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, that the administration would remove U.S. troops from northeast Syria, enabling Turkey to attack Syrian Kurds, infuriated Republican senators. Ankara believes the Kurds in Syria aid a separatist group within Turkey, but Kurdish fighters have been crucial U.S. allies in the defeat of the Islamic State group. Like most of the U.S. foreign policy establishment, GOP leaders saw Trump's pullout as an indefensible abandonment of a stalwart American ally — and a reckless move that played into the hands of ISIS, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Not a single Republican senator voiced support of the troop withdrawal. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell denounced the move publicly, as did Senator Lindsey Graham, previously a no-daylight-between-us Trump partisan.

In their best-case scenario, some Democrats hope the evolving Ukraine scandal takes down both Trump and his vice president. Pence has been tainted by the Ukraine scandal because the president dispatched him to Poland in September to further press Zelensky to curb corruption, though not specifically to discuss the Bidens. On October 9, in response to a reporter's questions, Pence would not say whether he was aware of Trump's eagerness to get dirt on Biden. Should Pence somehow fall too, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would become president.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/analysis-a-mike-pence-presidency-is-no-longer-just-dinner-party-chatter-in-dc--is-he-up-to-the-job/ar-AAICO9L?li=BBnb7Kz

[tulipsandroses]

1. Trump is not going to let it happen. If he goes down, he's taking everyone with him.

That's why he made sure to point out Pence's phone call. Now, maybe if the Republicans decide to go with this option, they agree to not oust Pence no matter what comes out. But I think it would make Pence a weakened candidate. Trump is not loyal to the Republican Party, he's not going to go quietly for the good of the party. I can see Pence, McConnell and the rest being subject of his Twitter attacks and Trump spilling the beans of all the wrong doing that they have all done.
I think they know this so they are going to fight tooth and nail to protect him. They are all involved in BS.

[ritapria]

2. I don't see 20 GOP Senators voting to Convict Trump

McConnell may give Collins, Gardner, Romney a Free Pass … Alexander is retiring so he may be a Yes on Convict …..Who else would ever do their duty : Put Country over Party ? …….They're a sad group of humanity ... It is going to take more than Ukrainegate to bring down this Shit Show ...

[Blue_true]

11. Trump is refusing to turn over documents or produce witnesses.

I see an impeachment investigation taking some time. Nixon was bad, but he was nothing like Trump is (as far as I can remember, I was sort of young still). I foresee Trump dragging this into the Courts, hoping that rightwing judge majorities side with him. But if democrats produce compelling arguments, I can't see Trump prevailing. In all, just the impeachment investigation could drag into the republican convention before Trump loses and republican senators bail on him in droves to save their hides. But the longer it takes, the better as long as investigators dig up incriminating evidence. The longer Trump holds on, the more damaging it is for republicans, they won't be able to insert a Bill Weld or another republican into the race against our nominee, they will be stuck with a badly damaged Trump/Pence ticket and that ticket will take republican officeholders down with it.

[Downtown Hound]

3. The GOP were barely hurt from their Clinton impeachment

And overall, it helped them way more than it hurt them. Yeah, they lost a few seats in 1998. But they went on to win (ahem, steal) 2000, and if it hadn't been for Clinton's impeachment, Gore would have won that election in a landslide.

So the idea that it hurt Republicans is a fantasy. For starters, Clinton was way more popular than Trump is. Second, his crimes were paltry compared to Trump's. Third, public opinion is in favor of impeaching Trump. It was never in favor of impeaching Clinton. And in the end, the Repukes were still able to snag a victory in 2000 because of it.

Bottom line? Dems have nothing to fear in impeaching Trump. It will only hurt Trump. No one else.

[durablend]

18. This.

Not sure where anyone is getting the idea that Republicans were "hurt" by it

[unblock]

4. Once again, "president pelosi" ain't happening by removal of both Donnie and Mikey.

It's hard enough to imagine this bunch of partisan republicans turning on either of them, never mind both of them.

But it's flat out impossible -- yes, impossible -- to have a realistic scenario where they voluntarily turn over the White House to a Democrat, never mind a liberal woman.

In the still unlikely event they decide to oust both of them, all they have to do is hold off ousting the second one until a new (Republican) vice-president is nominated and confirmed. Unless and I ntil that happens, they simple hold off on the second ouster.

They would *much* rather leave the vice-presidency open than turn the presidency over to a democrat.

The only realistic way we get a president pelosi is with at least one death in office. For instance, pence is ousted first, then, before a replacement can be confirmed, Donnie has a heart attack and dies.

[Chasing Dreams]

5. Are you clairvoyant?

[unblock]

6. Some hypothetical futures are really easy to rule out as impossible.

[Chasing Dreams]

10. Agree with your analysis, and joking a bit

with respect to that last example.

[unblock]

12. Indeed. And some scenarios are... more plausible...

[NYC Liberal]

7. It's true though. Republicans won't convict them both.

Convicting Trump alone is a long shot.

[Dorian Gray]

19. Realistic

If it depends on the Senate to convict, we aren't losing both.

[Blue_true]

13. I tend to agree. We are going to see that cartoon of republicans in a circle

with their asses up and their heads in the sand. They are going to fight this to the bloody end. They are terrified of taking on Trump and will try to bully their way through, even as more incriminating evidence piles up. In some states republicans pay no price at all for violating the law and being obstructionists. Trump will do his rallies to show how big his crowds are and that will terrify the shit out of other repughs.

[fescuerescue]

15. It's not impossible

A meteor could wipe out a huge chunk of the Senate right before the vote, wiping out 40 Republican Senators.

They could then finish the vote impeaching Trump. Shortly after Pence takes the Oath of office, but before nominating a VP, another meteor could strike.....

Clearly. Not impossible.

[unblock]

16. Um, yeah.

[TidalWave46]

8. These are the stories that will send Trump over the top.

[brettdale]

9. Maybe they should just impeach

Because trumpy committed an impeachable crime and worry about the fall out later.

[Blue_true]

14. I actually prefer to see federal prosecutors take Trump down for crimes.

That has risks, Trump has his sight set on the SDNY prosecutor and no others so far seem willing to take Trump on.

What I hope to see are strategic leaks toward the middle of next year, leaks which clearly show the public the magnitude of Trump's crimes.

[Garrett78]

17. Clinton was starting from a stronger position and people recognized that his impeachment...

...was a monumental waste of money with Republicans failing to nail Clinton for what they initially went after him for.

With Trump, it's a whole different ballgame. That said, Pelosi and Co. are right to move expeditiously, as the population can get bored and irritated pretty quickly. But it's going to take more than the Ukraine phone call to have any chance at getting 20 Republican Senators to convict. Make Republicans condone a good 5 or 6 significant crimes.

[DeminPennswoods]

20. Amazingly, Americans can distinguish between a

transparently ridiculous, politically motivated impeachment about private behavior between consenting adults (Clinton) and ones involving real abuse of power and/or crimes (Nixon, Trump).