Ohio's Reputation As a Must-Win State May No Longer Be True

[yortsed snacilbuper]

The shift is the result of changing demographics. Ohio voters in 2019 look a lot less like the rest of the country than they once did: they are whiter, older, and less schooled. Meanwhile, populations in other states like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are trending the opposite direction—becoming more diverse and younger, and more well-educated. As that shift intensifies, Ohio is on track to become solidly Republican, while other states are more likely to swing Democratic—forever changing that predictable national electoral map.

Top national Republican and Democratic strategists are urging party leadership this time around to put less emphasis on Ohio’s 18 electoral votes as a once-indispensable stepping stone to the 270 required to win the Presidency. National Republicans say the famously swingy state threatens to consume a disproportionate share of party resources, while National Democrats, argue there are simply more efficient places to route resources and ad buys.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ohios-reputation-as-a-must-win-state-may-no-longer-be-true/ar-AAILEUw?ocid=spartandhp

[Garrett78]

1. It's certainly not a must-win for the Democratic candidate.

Missouri was once the bellwether of all bellwethers. Times change. Ohio may be a lost cause for a while.

We have a better chance of winning Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and even Georgia than we do of winning Ohio.

[Ohiogal]

4. Sadly, true.

Ohio is older, whiter, and less educated, than in past years, according to what I’ve been reading lately. Just look at our governor. Tells you everything you need to know about Ohio. Ugh

[The Genealogist]

13. I have an older atlas...

Put out by a local professor who looked at all sorts of socio-political data concerning Missouri, and mapped them by county. One of the maps showed party strength for the state by county. So many counties that are now beet red were listed as solid Democratic. Boy times have changed over the last 40 years. Missouri just gets redder and redder.

[Blue_Adept]

2. I'm sure most Ohioans will be glad to not have so much focus

And so much advertising and polling done their way.

[edhopper]

3. Ohio has been stolen or almost stolen

in the last five elections.

[LonePirate]

5. Our presidential candidate should not spend one second or one penny in Ohio.

The time and money is better spent elsewhere. The state will not be competitive in 2020 and we have no chance to win House seats we do not already occupy. There are far better states deserving our attention than Ohio.

[Botany]

6. Ohio is so dirty that the D has to win big to squeak out a win

n/t

[Ms. Toad]

7. Good. I'll be glad for less wall-to-wall attention

during the election season.

Answering a poll-a-day & a gazilion robo-calls gets really tiresome.

[irisblue]

14. Columbus and Cleveland will still get the numerous commercials

Last edited Mon Oct 14, 2019, 05:30 PM - Edit history (1)

Those media markers cover the biggest Dem areas, maybe Dayton will get a lot because of the mass murderer

[Ms. Toad]

18. One of the benefits of living too far from the TV transmission towers -

I won't see them.

I've been almomst entirely TV-free since the analog to digital switch. Despite assurances it would be much better, it is only better if you are close enough to the towers to receive the transmissions. Unlike my delightful old fuzzy analog, digital is there, or not. In our house, it is mostly not there. We can occasionally, generally after 11 PM, pick up some of the stations.

[fescuerescue]

8. That's not really good news

Since Ohio is the #7 on electoral votes.

The gist of the article seems to be that Ohio is a lost cause/sure thing Dems vs Republicans

Permanently losing Ohio means we gotta permanently win several smaller states.

[Garrett78]

10. Winning back WI, MI and PA will do the trick. There's also FL, NC, AZ, GA and eventually TX.

[Blue_true]

16. You ignore that except for Philly and Pittsburgh and their surburbs,

Pennsylvania is also becoming whiter and older in the bulk of the state.

I believe that economic development turns areas blue, as areas become more prosperous, they become less republican. What democratic leaders and business people should do is focus on developing the economies in old industrial cities in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania that have fallen behind, help improve schools in those places and seed startup of modern businesses that have a future and will grow. We need to do that while continuing to develop the economies in states like Arizona, Nevada, New Nexico (blue, but can use a lot more modern businesses and high tech farming), Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, hell even Lousiana (look at how New Orleans has become a rising hotbed of innovation, followed by Baton Rouge in the distance, make those two places grow even more while spreading growth out to other cities in the state).

We also need to keep our eye on blue states like Washington, Oregon, Michigan, California (far north and central), New York State (Hudson Valley and western NYS), Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey. We need to expand our range of growth and innovation to declining cities in those state, in the longrun that makes those states more prosperous and bluer.

[Garrett78]

17. I'm not ignoring any of that. I simply didn't comment on it.

With a less hated candidate on our side and a more despised candidate on their side, I'm fairly confident we'll win back PA, as well as MI and WI. Unlike Ohio, all 3 were super close in 2016. We had victories in those states in 2018, I doubt we'll have as many casual "I'll give him my vote/he won't win anyway" voters in 2020, and we won't be nominating someone who's been under attack for 25 years. Those are the reasons for my cautious optimism.

Hundreds of thousands of Obama voters across key states simply didn't vote in 2016, due to Hillary Hate or overconfidence. I'm sure voter suppression also played a role.

And 3rd party voting was greater than normal. Who knows, if Kasich runs as a 3rd party candidate next year, maybe we'll even take Ohio.

[pecosbob]

9. I have not had much confidence in the official vote tallies in Ohio for several decades now.

[maxrandb]

11. Ohio is my home, although the Navy took me away from their 40 years ago

I still go back at times to visit family, but that fucking state has gone off the fucking deep end.

Hate fucking Radio and single party Retrumplican rule has turned Ohio into fucking Mississippi North.

This is what happens when you ignore Hate Radio and gerrymandering.

Your state gets older, whiter, more racist and stupider

Oh, and your fucking roads turn to shit, your water gets contaminated with fracking chemicals and even your professional football teams play like bums.

You elect amphibian turds like Gym Jordan and Mikey Dewine.

There's little pockets of sanity in places like Columbus and Cleveland, but the rest of the fucking state looks like Afghanistan after 40 years of occupation.

Let Ohio stew in their own shit... they voted for the face eating party and now their faces are being eaten.

But hey, at least they're a bastion of racism, so they've got that going for them.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

12. I'll see your Ohio and raise you my Kentucky

We have Moscow Mitch, AynRand Paul, and 5 of 6 of our U.S. Representatives are Repukes. Our governor is Butt-kisser Bevin, our state House of Representatives has 59 Rs to 39 Ds, and our state Senate has 29 Repugnants and 9 Democrats.

Young people leave as soon as they can, if they can afford it.

[dalton99a]

15. +1. There were 31 hate groups in Ohio last year. This year: 36

according to the Southern Poverty Law Center