I'm sticking with my prediction. There will be no trial, the Republicans will force Trump to resign.

[shockey80]

This is now a smoking gun case. The Republicans in the Senate will not want this to go to trial. They will not want to vote one way or another.

If this goes to trial things will get even worse for the Republicans. The entire white house is involved a bribery case with all kinds of witnesses and documents. The trial will expose all of them.

Would you rather go to trial against a smoking gun case that could implicate dozens of Republicans or would you rather force Trump to resign and not go to trial.

I would like to add one thought, The Democrats should stop saying quid pro quo and call it bribery because that's what it is. Every American understands the meaning of bribery.

[Eyeball_Kid]

1. I think you're right. All of what's going on now is the squealing of the pigs before slaughter. n/t

[Dustlawyer]

60. I don't think anyone will get him to resign.

He knows that as soon as he is out, he will be prosecuted.

The only way he would resign is if he cuts a deal where they let him go in exchange for him leaving.

[dhol82]

83. Agree

They will have to drag him out of the White House.

[rickyhall]

92. He could move to Moscow, be close to buddy.

[dhol82]

96. Big question is:

Would Vlad really want him there?
Little Donnie might be too expensive to maintain for an extended period of time.
Polonium, anyone?

[Digger]

116. I doubt

that Putin would have any use for him if he was no longer president.

[jimlup]

2. But I think Trump has the Repubs by the

gonads and not the other way around... while we see that isn't true - they don't grasp it.

[gordianot]

15. Remember the Pied Piper Rudy and his Russian thugs with bank accounts.

Who got the money?

[OAITW r.2.0]

3. If they don't, they are complicit in the trashing of the Constitution. nt

[Golden Raisin]

90. They (Republican Congresspeople & Cabinet Ministers)

have been totally complicit for the last 3 years. Either by their silence, or worse, by actively aiding and abetting this shitshow, in which our Republic, Democracy, Norms, the Rule of Law and our Constitution are being burned to the ground in front of our eyes.

[Stuart G]

4. YES, it will get worse,a trial would be much worse. Today is just the start, perhaps he will resign.

Today made your prediction much more likely.

[shockey80]

10. There is one possible flaw with my prediction.

We are dealing with Republicans. They are very stupid people.

[jcgoldie]

63. The problem here isn't that they are stupid.

Its that they are complicit. Trump isn't the only one owned by Putin.

[Butterflylady]

86. And that my friend is stupid!!!!!!

[TomSlick]

69. The main flaw with your prediction is that we're talking about Trump.

Unlike Nixon, he has no sense of shame. Also unlike Nixon, he has no concern for the country. Additionally, he has to be concerned that Pence won't pardon him and he will face federal indictment.

[scheming daemons]

5. The Republicans aren't able to "force" him to do anything....

...he'd rather burn it all down than quit.


And he will take many of them with him.



It is impossible to get a narcissist to admit defeat. He won't.

[leftieNanner]

13. I agree with you

Plus he fears prison.

[Grammy23]

74. Not only prison is on his fear list.

He does not want anyone to know his real financial history and situation. His reputation as an astute businessman is on the line, too, and he cannot tolerate the idea of the truth being out for all to see. Many of us already KNOW the truth but his base understanding he is a fraud and cheat would not be okay with him. So he has much to fear. And some of us can’t wait for the cat to be let out of the bag.

[SergeStorms]

118. He'd just lie.......again,

and tell them it's the vast left-wing deep state spreading vicious propaganda about him. His lies always work with the deplorables. They worship this criminal for chrisakes!

[pbmus]

18. Bingo

[crickets]

25. Yep. Count on it. nt

[mopinko]

26. he folds all the time.

settles lawsuits and files bankruptcy. he does know how to walk away from the table.
i think he will.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

43. +1

[Thekaspervote]

84. Agree! It may depend on if he thinks he can get a pardon or make a deal to just walk away

[IADEMO2004]

29. I'm Thinking Saddam Hussein leaving Kuwait burn everything

[Arkansas Granny]

41. I'm very much afraid that you're right. Trump won't go without burning

it down behind him. His only loyalty is to himself.

[paleotn]

45. Then again, hes not the smartest guy around....

and neither is his spawn. He encircles himself with yes people who, when you get down to it, really don't have his best interests at heart. Self centered assholes tend to flock together. So I think he can be maneuvered out of office. He never really wanted the job anyway and he hates it more and more every day. He's run from serious trouble all his life. I don't see why this is any different. Make him a deal.......then break it once he's out of office. Oops.

[DesertRat]

53. My thoughts as well.

No one tells him what to do.

[DallasNE]

56. He Can't Tell Right From Wrong

So there is no convincing him he is wrong. No resignation.

[Talitha]

73. "The Republicans aren't able to "force" him to do anything...."

Everything you say is true, every word of it. The Repugs can, however, wait until the vote to impeach and then force him out. They'd better hope things hurry up, though. From the looks of it, more and more of them will eventually go down with the ship.
(Excuse me whilst I clutch my pearls. )

[relayerbob]

88. Agreed

[Midnight Writer]

6. What I see today is Republicans willing to, as a group, break the law to defend the President.

So far, the only cracks in their coalition I see are that a couple of Senators are "troubled", "concerned".

[Volaris]

38. Oh, did Susan Collins weigh in...i hadn't read that anywhere just yet lol...

[paleotn]

50. Those in safe, red districts or states, yes.

Those not, particularly Senators who have to run state wide, maybe not. The one thing about politicians, especially on the right, is they're loyal only to themselves and they love getting re-elected. Threaten the latter and the former kicks in. Should be interesting to watch them squirm regardless.

[Kingofalldems]

7. Smoking cannon here:

Link to tweet

[redstateblues]

8. Wishful thinking

[leftieNanner]

9. Extortion by any other name...

I think the Senate Rs may want to get him to resign, but I don't think there's any way to convince him. He knows that they can't afford to vote against him if they want to be reelected, and he can't quit because the only thing keeping him out of prison is Bill Barr.

[Chemisse]

19. I think extortion is a better description of what happened.

Bribery implies that the Ukranian president had a choice in the matter which, given the dire situation, he really didn't.

Of course, the term bribery is well understood by Trump voters; I'm not sure extortion is (3 syllables!).

[Native]

11. I don't think Trump will give up the fight.

It's simply not in his nature, IMO. If he goes down, he'll take as many people with him as he can.

[NanceGreggs]

30. Actually, it is in his nature.

He's bailed on business ventures when they started going south, leaving investors holding the bag.

But I do agree he'll take people down with him, because he's a vengeful little prick.

[spooky3]

35. And, he isn't protected from prosecution once he leaves office.

In the current court case, the sides are arguing about investigations while he’s in office, but even his attorneys agree he’s not immune once he’s out.

And Putin would have no use for him once he is out.

[NanceGreggs]

40. All true.

But what's also true is that he's arrogant (and delusional) enough to believe he can beat any rap in court, what with being smarter than everyone and all.

I'm sure he still believes that Putin is his buddy, and they'll start working on that Trump Hotel Moscow deal the minute he's out of office. He is THAT clueless.

[Mr.Bill]

54. He won't have the money to pay lawyers.

No one will work for him. No one good, anyway.

[spooky3]

65. And the others are/will be in jail. Nt

[NanceGreggs]

100. You know that, and I know that ...

... but the Dotard doesn't know that.

We've all seen him in action - the 'stable genius' is a moron. Right now, he's telling himself that there isn't a top-notch lawyer in the country who wouldn't jump at the chance to have him as a client.

[YOHABLO]

12. One way or another he's going to have to face prosecution.

We have to hold him accountable. Unless of course Pence would pardon him. But then Pence might be up to his knees in pig slop.

[TommyCelt]

109. Pence's Pardon...

...only works on a federal level. State prosecutions would be unhindered.

[tanyev]

14. I think they would have to give him a lot of money to resign.

And maybe make up an award with a giant trophy. Bestest President Everer.

[The empressof all]

16. That's ok ...

I actually think it's better for the country if he goes out of the White House quietly. He will be tried in New York and it will all come out in one way or another. The sooner he is convicted and in prison the better off we will be. Pence can't pardon him for State crimes.

[VarryOn]

17. I think they'll have a trial in the Senate, milk it for all it's worth....

But pull the plug on Trump before they have to vote.

This all will get even iglier befefore we get to that point. Barr's DOJ has yet to play its cards yet.

Hold on tight!

[UpInArms]

20. I thinking that will have to drag MF45 kicking and screaming

Out the door ...


I like your scenario, also

[MFGsunny]

21. My woke neighbors said to me::It's plain & simple bribery and extortion, just like mafia crooks. n/t

[Garrett78]

22. Trump has a strong incentive, though, to remain in office. 20 Republican Senators is still unlikely.

But the public testimony phase may be more than Republicans can bear.

[luvtheGWN]

93. The Senators have to be present in order to vote.

I wonder how many of them will call in sick?

[Garrett78]

94. I think, if any do, they'll face the wrath of Cult45 in their next election.

Just as they would if they vote to convict.

[Hassler]

23. House Dems should be clear to Mike Dense: pardon Chump

And we will immediately begin impeachment proceedings against you for obstruction of Justice.

[Kablooie]

24. Only if they can come up with an excuse that Trump thinks is a win for him.

If it looks like he is a loser he won't quit.

I'm sure their little excuse makers are working hard at something that will please Trump.

[Tiggeroshii]

27. Well there is a bill Lindsey's trying to pass that would prevent requiring a trial.

But I don't think that will quite happen.

[Miguelito Loveless]

28. Trump will never resign

He will start a civil, or nuclear war, before he would resign. Resigning means admitting he is wrong, and Trump is genetically incapable of that.

[rurallib]

31. Not disagreeing, just think it will be a hard sell

to a man whose incentive to stay in the presidency is that it keeps him out of jail.

[dawg day]

32. I agree-- he's going to stomp out very loudly and blame the GOP

And it is bribery, and it's also extortion, and they should say that clearly. Bribery is actually mentioned in the impeachment clause---
The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.

—Article II, Section 4

[lpbk2713]

33. I'm not so fussy about how it happens.

I just want the mofo out of there.

ASAP

[Moostache]

37. As long as there is a perp-walk and Trump in tears, I am good...

I want to watch that son of a bitch wallow in self-pity and cry his ass out to the waiting US Marshalls to be taken into custody.

Then I want to see the agents hog tie Don Jr. and Eric when they foolishly run like drunken hill-billies on a "Cops" re-run.

Finally, I want to see Ice Princess and the Stiff hauled off in separate walks of shame....Melania and Baron can escape to NYC, but a shot of Melania laughing about it all would be the perfect cherry on top...

[Sugarcoated]

106. Perfection, LOL

Now you've got my hopes up....your description is too funny!

[spooky3]

34. IMHO it all depends on the polls. Nt

[TheCowsCameHome]

36. Trump will never resign.

n/t

[Poiuyt]

39. I used to think he'd never resign, but he gave up the fight for Doral pretty quickly

I think he's getting tired

[beachbumbob]

42. nobody forces trump to do anything

[Goodheart]

44. You overestimate Republicans.

They will never admit trump did anything wrong. And when you're the jury, itself, there are no consequences for the perfidy.

[evertonfc]

46. Impeachment

will be devastating with or without a conviction. It will be in the history books. That will drive Trump crazier and be difficult to overcome in 2020. It will motivate his base but his base won't be enough. Every interview, every debate he will be referred to as the impeached Orange man

[bucolic_frolic]

47. Several top administration officials are also involved and removing Trump does NOTHING about them

Barr, Pence, Pompeo, Mnuchin, Mulvaney, Giuliani, and does anyone want to take odds on Wilbur Ross? Only Perry, T-Rex, and Bolton knew enough to stand up and escape.

You cannot leave the others in place and Pence unscathed. America needs the biggest draining of the swamp ever, clean sweep with a broom and leaf blower.

There are enough offenses to impeach several of those officials as well.

[Mr. Ected]

48. Why would they suspend the Great Lie now?

They've gutted the federal government, stacked the courts, deregulated everything, and introduced overt propaganda into the mainstream. They have their own media outlet, a huge baked-in contingent, no conscience and no fear. They're on a roll.

This won't end peacefully.

[ancianita]

49. Withholding congressionally allocated $ until you get dirt is not bribery but extortion.

[Botany]

51. Even Miss Lindsey is Hedging his bets now.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142385417

A big dead orange turkey by Thanksgiving?

[fierywoman]

52. FWIW, all the psychics I've been following agree with you.

[marlakay]

55. The only way he would resign is if

Pardoned by new pres and given deal to have no state charges.

[Thekaspervote]

85. This!

[moreland01]

57. Trump's ego

won't allow him to resign. He's telling himself that he "won" the election without republican support and he can beat this wrap too. But this time he's wrong.

[Claritie Pixie]

99. I agree with you. He thinks he's all-powerful. But what if he's told the Senate will convict?

When faced with certain removal from office, will he not believe them and remain in fantasyland?

[Mme. Defarge]

58. What kept me awake in the night

was reading somewhere that Trump could allow or force another government shutdown to try to derail impeachment. Is this a possibility?

Somebody talk me down. Please.

[TeamPooka]

59. "President Pence" is their solution. I wonder why they don't want it.

[llmart]

61. You may be right.

However, I think he's making sure that before he does, the rest of his grifter family have done as much grifting as they can, secured it away in the Caymans or elsewhere. I'd stake my life that Iwanka and her conman husband plus Beavis and Butthead are busy grubbing for dollars anyway they can before the boom is lowered.

I really want to see all of them go the way Bernie Madoff did, bankrupt and in jail.

Keep in mind that people who suffer the level of narcissism that he does have a way of using magical thinking to convince themselves that none of it was their fault. He'll convince himself that he quit because "we" didn't deserve his brilliance. He doesn't need to convince anyone else. It's enough that he'll believe it.

[Blue_true]

62. I tend to agree with you.

As more damaging information roles in against Trump, it becomes harder for McConnell to block a vote to remove from office. They will fight to the nines to save Pence, not so for Trump.

When republicans see themselves losing seats, McConnell will likely take a secret vote among repughs and see that Trump would be removed from office. Then he will go to Trump and give Trump a choice of resign or be removed by secret vote. I doubt that even Trump would want to go down in history as the only American President ever removed from office after being impeached., he will do a Nixon, resign before he is impeached.

[Kentonio]

115. Not sure they care about Pence particularly either.

If they could replace him with someone else obviously.

[warmfeet]

64. The asshole in chief can go away by any means, necessary or otherwise - I don't give a shit anymore

I don't care much how it happens, just that it does happen, and soon.

Fuck him, and his loyal followers/cultists. Fuck every last one of them. Traitorous, treasonous assholes - the lot of them. They can suck on the ashes of their failed historical disgrace.

[bucolic_frolic]

66. Narcissists ALWAYS escape consequences

Always. And they don't rely on the actions of others to escape. They create their own. No insight other than that. No idea how this plays out.

[yaesu]

67. tRump will never give up the only thing keeping him out of prison. nt

[Canoe52]

68. Jim Jones...David Koresh...Donald Trump?

Inflated egos can’t stand being exposed.

[DFW]

70. Only one thing gets Republicans in the Senate to demand that of Trump

If and when many polls show a definitive trend toward a decisive Democratic majority in the Senate next year, and at numbers even Republican voter fraud can't overcome, THEN they will do a repeat of August, 1974, and urge him to resign, saying they will be forced to vote for removal from office in a trial if the House impeaches.

Even then, Trump's ego might prevent him from resigning, and he does a repeat performance of "Der Untergang," where Hitler holes up in his bunker and rants about "Verräter (traitors)."

If Trump DOES resign, he'll still deny it's because he has to. He'll say he has accomplished more in less than 4 years what most presidents didn't accomplish in 8 years, and so to give Pence a head start, he's handing over the White House to him a few months early. Pence pardons Trump, and, realizing he has no party support, says he won't run in 2020. The resulting scramble for the Republican nomination will resemble what happens when you toss a raw meat into the Amazon River just as a school of 1000 hungry piranhas is passing:

[SayItLoud]

71. tRUMP is a compromised traitor who via Putin

KNOWS where all the financial bodies are buried within the GOOP (intentional extra O ). In particular Moscow Mitch and Leningrad Lindsey, but the Russian $ ties to the gop goes far and wide.

tRUMP isn't going anywhere in disgrace. He will demand and get pardons for everyone in his crime family/syndicate.

Just sayin..

[book_worm]

72. No, it will go to trial and he will be acquitted by the Senate

But at least 10 Republican senators will vote to convict which will allow the Dems to say that this was a bipartisan vote to convict.

[tandem5]

75. One of Trump's cornerstone strategies relies on the awkwardness of enforcing norms...

We're a country of laws just so long as we really don't have to test them and that's where norms come in -- the societal agreement that you'll bow out before I have to stand up for what is right. Trump's a sociopath meaning he has no regard for any of these unspoken rules. He won't resign. They'll have to vote to remove him. He won't physically leave the White House. They'll have to forcibly remove his person. He's banking somewhere long the way somebody will demur and based off his track record he's usually right.

[yonder]

98. +1.

[VOX]

112. "the awkwardness of enforcing norms"... good analysis.

And the sad truth.

[Kurt V.]

76. I'm sticking with my opinion. there will be NO articles sent to senate. none. zero.

[Pepsidog]

77. A smoking howitzer.

[Enoki33]

78. tRump will not resign in my opinion. Neither will he voluntarily relinquish

power when he loses at the polls without creating a national crises based on manufactured fraud. We are dealing with a criminal mentality that each day continues to lose more stability. He has some unknown hold on the GOP that keeps them servile.

[RainCaster]

79. Trump won't go, his ego won't let him

Pure and simple, he will take the whole party down with him.

[guss]

80. Cant Resign

Soon if he does resign the State of New York would throw him in jail for tax Fraud.
And a lot of re pugs would be investigated for taking campaign money from Russian NRA.

[CanonRay]

81. In exchange for an agreement

to not go after Pence. McConnell will try to salvage something

[LudwigPastorius]

82. The assumption that McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, Ronna McDaniel, et al can control Trump's...

actions is a huge one. Sure, they can tell him that they won't vote to exonerate him in an impeachment trial, but Trump is detached from reality, and rarely bases his decisions on facts.

If that's the way the GOP wants to play it, they've got to convince Trump that resignation is HIS idea. Good luck with that.

To your other point, I think the Dems should continue to methodically gather evidence before jumping into how to frame the inevitable impeachment charges.

There could potentially be evidence of a shitload of other crimes and campaign finance violations locked away on that secret White House national security server.

Trump's phone calls to other leaders were scary enough for aides to hide them. Let's see what he was saying to Putin, to Erdogan, to Salman al Saud, to the North Koreans.

Trump's entire existence is transactional. Let's see what he was offering our enemies, and what he wanted in return from them before we frame him as just an extortionist. There may be actual, Constitutionally-defined treason there.

[relayerbob]

87. I disagree

Trump knows the minute he's out, either the courts or the Russians will take him down, and in the Russians case, it won't likely be a nice prison cell. He won't care about facts, only fear and his own ass.

[hibbing]

89. He'll serve full term, unless for health reasons

The only out for him I see is resigning for health reasons. There are some pretty credible critiques out there that he is mentally deteriorating.


Peace

[paulkienitz]

91. it's not bribery, it's a shakedown.

[herding cats]

95. I'm sure that's what the Republicans are hoping for, but reality might be different.

They're hoping he will listen when they say it's the best option left to him, that he can play the martyr and use it to fuel his new media outlet.

Problem with that is Trump has yet to pivot to a manageable, sensible or sane persona as they also hoped he would. Time will tell, but I'm not sure he won't double down when/if New York refuses to capitulate to Republicans pressure to drop state level charges.

Hell, at this point I'm not sure even the congress could be persuaded to offer a trial free deal. The way he's kept on digging his hole deeper may well have sealed his fate there as well. This isn't the '70's and he's spiraling way faster (and worse) than Nixon did then. He needs to be made an example of if we're ever going to bring back a semblance of normalcy.

[D23MIURG23]

97. I can believe they will try to force him out, but I don't see how they can succeed.

Forcing Trump to resign requires that they find something to use as leverage. They aren't going to convince him it will help him save face: he doesn't give a fuck about that. He's a malevolent 2 year old without any good name to defend. Likewise for giving a fuck about the law, or sparing the country trauma. Maybe they could offer him a pardon, but it might not take care of his problems, given the range of crimes that have come to light that could be tried at the state level.

What could they possibly offer that would convince him to give up his jolly game of "pretend to be dictator" and go get prosecuted for the rest of his life? Personally I think a more likely scenario would be Trump getting convicted by the senate and then declaring himself "president for life" before eventually being dragged out of the white house in handcuffs literally kicking and screaming.

[CaptainTruth]

101. Given his ego, I don't think Trump would resign but I think some Senators might boycott the vote.

As you said "They will not want to vote one way or another." So some may boycott the vote to convict, to avoid going on the record.

If 10 boycott (are not present for the vote) it would take 60 votes to convict & remove.

If there's a large GOP boycott (which we might want to encourage) and 30 or more don't attend the vote, Trump could be convicted & removed without a single Republican vote. Republicans could just let Trump be convicted & removed without participating.

Remember, the Constitution says a vote of "two thirds of members present" is required to convict & remove, & a quorum is 51.

[vapor2]

102. resignation

I don't care how he leaves office but I think if he resigns he maintains his benefits but I have faith that the SDNY will resolve many issues upon his departure.

[still_one]

103. I dont care how he is removed from office, just get the POS removed

[NCLefty]

104. That would also allow Trump+GOP to forever claim Americans were unfairly denied their leader.

When they were actually unfairly denied justice. See: conservatism 2019.

[Joinfortmill]

105. Pence needs to go, too

No President Pence.

[grantcart]

107. Perfectly sensible but

It's not a smoking gun case it's a sociopath case.

Trump will never resign. In his mind he will be able to come back.

If he is impeached and not removed he will try to come back.

If he is removed he will run for office.

If he loses the election he will show up every day to talk to the press and try and destroy the country.

Destroy Republican? Doesnt care

Destroy the government? Doesn't care

Destroy the country? Doesn't care

He will continue to try and make it all about him every minute until He is dead.

[D23MIURG23]

114. Probably true. I'm personally hoping he gets zealously prosecuted the second he's out the door.

If they can shut him up in a cell with no laptop the world will move on and forget about him. He needs the media's help and/or internet access in order to destroy the government or the country, after he leaves office.

[peggysue2]

108. Scaramucci has made the same prediction

Scaramucci claims Trump will not be the 2020 nominee. He also claims the restlessness in Republican ranks is growing with each new revelation and McConnell will ultimately go to the Squatter-in-Chief and tell him it's over.

We shall see.

Btw, Scaramucci has also predicted this will come to a boil within the next 4-6 weeks.

Works for me!

[LanternWaste]

110. My guess is that after the holidays, Idiot trump will go full-on Fhrerbunker

Damn the torpedoes, damn the Democrats or Republicans, damn the laws, damn the consequences. His image is job-one for the president, and all else is of little matter to him.

[Nitram]

111. They can't "force him to resign." I'm not sure if resignation is something a narcissist

would even consider. But I hope you're right.

[nitpicker]

113. You wish

But it will not happen as long as Moscow Mitch controls committee assignments.

And Grahamcracker goes along.

[budkin]

117. Welp, looks like that's not happening

They are galvanizing behind him now.

[Nitram]

119. Gloomy Gus, we'll have none of that defeatist talk. Although you are always welcome to ponder

your dystopian opinions in public. I would die to defend your right to press your doubts about the viability of our democratic institutions. I do hope you will have to eat your own words in the end.

[guss]

120. ty

I hope I do.