The GOP's nightmare scenario
A growing number of Republicans are privately warning of increasing fears of a total wipeout in 2020: House, Senate, and White House.
Why it matters: All of this is unfolding while the economy still looks strong, and before public impeachment proceedings have officially begun.
• House Republicans in swing districts are retiring at a very fast pace, especially in the suburbs of Texas and elsewhere. (Republicans talk grimly of the "Texodus." ) Rep. Greg Walden — the top Republican on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, and the only Republican in Oregon's congressional delegation — yesterday shocked the party by becoming the 19th GOP House member to not seek re-election.
• The Republican Senate majority, once considered relatively safe, suddenly looks in serious jeopardy. Democrats are raising more money, and polling better, than Republican incumbents in battleground after battleground.
• President Trump trails every major Democratic candidate nationally and in swing states — and his favorable ratings remain well under 50%.
The biggest recent change is Republicans' increasingly precarious hold on the Senate.
• National Journal's Josh Kraushaar writes in his "Against the Grain" column that "the pathway for a narrow Democratic takeover of the upper chamber is looking clearer than ever": "If Trump doesn’t win a second term, Democrats only need to net three seats to win back the majority."
Read more: https://www.axios.com/republican-party-2020-election-wipeout-house-senate-trump-3ca4a371-cdfb-4213-9ff0-2cf058aa7537.html
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I'm fairly confident we'll keep the House, and frankly, I think we'll pick up seats given the number of Repub "retirements."
I'm thinking the White House should be at least a 55-60% chance that we take it. No way he can wiggle his way to razor thin margins in 4 battleground states again, or at least he shouldn't be able to do it.
So, the Senate. And it looks increasingly like at least 4-5 or the Repub defenders are in play. Perhaps even more.
Not celebrating yet, for sure. But it's looking like the 2018 wave is still rolling.
