Half of voters already decided against him for 2020

[struggle4progress]

Nov. 3, 2019, 9:14 AM EST
By Dante Chinni

... The poll finds 46 percent of registered voters say they are “certain to vote against Trump” in 2020. A far smaller number, 34 percent, say they are “certain to vote for Trump.” And 17 percent say they might vote for or against Trump depending on whom the Democrats nominate for president.

Do the math and the figures suggest that Trump needs to win nearly all of that “depends on the nominee” vote to win the popular vote in 2020.

And the numbers don’t look any better in the 11 “swing states” that will likely decide the presidential race — including Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. In those states, 46 percent of the registered voters also say they are “certain to vote against Trump” ...

Back in 2016 Trump won the presidency while capturing 46 percent of the vote ... The 2020 vote is still a year off, but as of now it appears 46 percent of the electorate is already “anybody but Trump.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-half-voters-have-already-decided-against-trump-2020-n1075746

Let us make a real effort not to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!

[struggle4progress]

1. Danger ahead

By Jennifer Rubin
November 1, 2019 at 9:00 a.m. EDT

The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll should send a shudder through the Republican Party. Only 38 percent of Americans approve of President Trump’s performance, while 58 percent disapprove, 48 percent strongly so. The majority of the poll was taken after the killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (for which a majority gives Trump credit). Trump’s approval ratings in battleground states such as Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin (40 to 55 percent) are only slightly better than his overall numbers.

A plurality (49 to 47 percent) approve of impeachment and removal, while a large majority (58 to 34 percent) disapprove of how he is handling impeachment. Perhaps smearing respected civil servants, threatening the whistleblower and insulting members of Congress is not the way to go. By a margin of 55 to 35 percent, Americans think Trump did something wrong regarding Ukraine; 47 percent say he did something seriously wrong. It is a good thing the House is moving to open hearings — by a 65 to 33 percent margin, Americans do not like the closed-door proceedings.

Sixty-six percent think Trump has behaved in an unpresidential way, and 58 percent say in a way damaging to the United States. A majority thinks the pullout in Syria damaged our image as a reliable ally, and a majority (54 to 28 percent) think he has made us less respected in the world ...

If they drill down on Trump’s approval numbers, Republicans might go into full panic mode. His approval numbers are atrocious among women (31/64), white college graduates (38/61), women college graduates (32/67), suburban dwellers (41/56) and independents (38/57). Among suburban women he trails 33 to 63 percent. He is surviving almost entirely on white evangelicals (74/23) ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/11/01/poll-warning-trump-republicans-danger-ahead/

[riversedge]

7. I do hope NO one gets cooky. Organize, canvase and VOTE

[struggle4progress]

9. +! Democracy isn't a spectator sport! It's hard work full time!

[Corgigal]

12. Not with Russia in the mix.

Got to beat the spread. President Jimmy Carter thinks Trump is illegitimate, only Trump believes he really won. Russia really picked the right asset.

[struggle4progress]

2. NBC/WSJ poll: 49 percent now back impeachment and removal

Nov. 3, 2019, 9:00 AM EST
By Mark Murray

... In the poll, 53 percent of Americans say they approve of the impeachment inquiry regarding Trump’s actions with Ukraine’s president, while 44 percent disapprove.

The results largely break along partisan lines, with 89 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of independents supporting the inquiry — versus just 9 percent of Republicans who agree.

Then asked if Trump should be impeached and removed from office, 49 percent answer yes, while 46 percent say no.

That’s a reversal from a month ago, when the survey found the numbers essentially flipped — 43 percent yes, 49 percent no ...

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-49-percent-now-back-trump-s-impeachment-n1075296

[struggle4progress]

3. GOP voters more split on substance of scandal than on penalizing for it

NOV. 1, 2019, AT 5:54 AM
By Perry Bacon Jr.

... a Selzer & Co./Grinnell College survey of U.S. adults released this week found that just 7 percent of respondents said that it is OK “for political candidates in the U.S. to ask for assistance from a foreign government to help them win an election.” Eighty-one percent said it is not OK, including overwhelming majorities of people who live in rural areas (87 percent), evangelicals (85 percent) and Republicans (81 percent).

When pollsters mention Trump’s name in their questions, the results are more partisan. But even then, a solid bloc of Republicans object to Trump’s actions. A recent Suffolk University/USA Today poll found that nearly one-in-three Republicans said Trump’s phone conversation with the Ukrainian president was “wrong, but doesn’t rise to an impeachable offense” (22 percent) or “an impeachable offense” (7 percent).

Perhaps the most obvious explanation here is that many Republican voters don’t necessarily agree with Trump pushing Ukraine’s government to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden’s son but don’t want him further investigated or removed from office. So the more a polling question raises the stakes and essentially requires respondents to say, “Trump is unfit for office and should be impeached,” the more likely Republican respondents are to align with the president.

An Economist/YouGov poll released this week fits this theory. The poll found that 14 percent of Republican adults think that Trump “purposefully” withheld military aid from Ukraine to force an investigation into the Bidens, and another 23 percent said that they are unsure. That means only 63 percent of Republican respondents took the completely pro-Trump stance that the president did not intentionally withhold the money. Similarly, 15 percent of Republicans think that if it’s proven that Trump withheld aid from the Ukrainians until they agreed to an investigation of the Bidens, that would constitute an impeachable offense. Another 20 percent say they aren’t sure ...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/gop-voters-are-more-split-on-the-substance-of-the-ukraine-scandal-than-on-penalizing-trump-for-it/

[Hermit-The-Prog]

14. a very bright illumination of Republican hypocrisy

Overwhelmingly against foreign interference, unless it helps their candidate.

[struggle4progress]

4. Approval rating among Republicans drops to career low

JAMES WALKER ON 11/1/19 AT 11:47 AM EDT

... satisfaction with his performance in office among the GOP dropped from a "career-high" 87 percent in July to 74 percent at the end of October, the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has found.

The survey conducted by Langer Research Associates between October 27-30 also found that 67 percent of conservatives, a separate group to Republicans, approved of Trump's performance, a fall from 77 percent in July.

More than a quarter of Republicans and 32 percent of conservatives further said they disapproved of Trump's handling of impeachment proceedings when they were polled in the run up to the House vote to formalize the inquiry.

Trump's overall approval numbers were stable, if low, with just 38 percent of the 1,003 adults surveyed saying they approved of the president's performance ...

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-republican-approval-rating-career-low-1469226

[struggle4progress]

5. Claims impeachment inquiry will backfire -- but polling indicates he's wrong

By Aaron Rupar
Nov 1, 2019, 2:10pm EDT

... polling indicates that the impeachment inquiry is broadly supported in the battleground states that are key both to Trump’s reelection hopes and the balance of power in Congress.

New York Times/Siena College polling released last week indicates that a majority of voters in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin support an impeachment inquiry, with a plurality of Florida voters supporting it as well. Trump won all six of those states in 2016.

That same poll indicates that majorities in each of those states currently oppose Trump’s removal from office. But as the Nixon Watergate hearings taught us, public hearings laying out the evidence that Trump abused his office during his dealings with the new Ukrainian government could change that in a hurry, and those hearings are likely to begin as soon as later this month.

Also concerning for Trump is a new Washington Post/ABC poll that shows his approval rating among Republicans sliding to a record low of 74 percent — down eight points from September and 13 points from July. Overall, the poll pegs Trump’s approval rating at 38 percent, with nearly half of Americans (48 percent) strongly disapproving of his job performance (Trump’s overall disapproval rate is 58 percent) ...

https://www.vox.com/2019/11/1/20943460/trump-impeachment-polling

[Garrett78]

13. I wonder about the thought process, if there is one, behind supporting impeachment but not removal.

[Demovictory9]

6. I wish we could redistribute some California voters into swing states

Trump is about 35 points negative in Calif. We could send million of dems to other states and still he will lose Cali

[struggle4progress]

8. Let's knock out some California Republicans in 2020!

[struggle4progress]

10. Texas voters evenly split on impeachment

By Feroze Dhanoa, Patch Staff
Nov 2, 2019 3:15 pm ET

Not quite half of Texas registered voters agree that "Congress is justified in conducting impeachment investigations into actions Donald Trump has taken while president," according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll ...

... 46% agree, while 32% do not ...

"Based on what you know, do you think that Donald Trump has taken actions while president that justify his removal from office before the end of his term?" 43% of registered Texas voters say yes and 44% say no. Again, the partisan splits are what you might expect — 79% of Democrats say early removal is justified, while 79% of Republicans say it's not. Independents were divided, 34% yes, 33% no and 24% unsure ...

... While 25% of voters approve of the way Republicans are handling the investigations, 49% don't. For Democrats, it was 40% approval and 45% disapproval. Trump's numbers are in the same neighborhood: 39% approve of the way he has responded to the impeachment investigations, and 45% do not ...

https://patch.com/texas/downtownaustin/texas-voters-evenly-split-trump-impeachment-poll

[Garrett78]

11. Without fraud, nobody with Trump's numbers can win, even with the electoral college in place.

His "strongly approve" number is in the 20s and his "strongly disapprove" number is almost twice as high.

It takes a lot of foreign interference and voter suppression to make a Trump re-election even remotely possible.

And consider all of the factors in his favor in 2016. His opponent was a polarizing figure who had, sadly, been under relentless attack for 25 years (a quarter of a century!). There was the last minute Comey announcement. Trump had the newness factor going for him, meaning Trump fatigue was not yet a reality and the media was more enamored with him. He was a massive underdog, so there were undoubtedly a lot of ignorant and overconfident people who basically said, "I'll give him a shot; he can't win anyway." Or, "I'll just stay home, because I know Clinton will win and I don't really like either candidate." All of that is why, if not for the prospect of election fraud, I'd be extremely confident in a landslide (where we take MI, PA, WI, FL, NC, GA, AZ, etc.).

But it all comes down to the bolded sentence above.