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brooklynite

(94,731 posts)
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:21 PM Nov 2019

Let's pour a LITTLE bit of water on tonight's KY results...

Beshear's win says very little about McConnell's vulnerability next year, and Republicans took all the other Statewide races. Before I invest a penny on Amy McGrath's campaign, I'll need to see a solid path to victory. With what we'll have to put into AZ, CO, ME, GA and NC, McConnell is precisely the sort of race where we need to ignore the emotional satisfaction of potentially beating him, and focus on what's realistic.

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Let's pour a LITTLE bit of water on tonight's KY results... (Original Post) brooklynite Nov 2019 OP
Let's pour a little bourbon on them BeyondGeography Nov 2019 #1
Okay Happyhippychick Nov 2019 #2
a personality contest the dem barely won, and bevin's going to recount nt msongs Nov 2019 #3
A 30 point swing is a 30 point swing. NoMoreRepugs Nov 2019 #4
Just celebrate the win, for god's sake mcar Nov 2019 #5
We can't do that .. obnoxiousdrunk Nov 2019 #23
sore winners? caraher Nov 2019 #62
No, let's not. StarfishSaver Nov 2019 #6
But it's not your pennies we are investing jberryhill Nov 2019 #10
hush. you're a red cow. a laughing red cow. leave the pennies alone and chew your cud. Hermit-The-Prog Nov 2019 #13
Moo jberryhill Nov 2019 #30
Silly me, being all "Ask not what I can do for my country" and everything StarfishSaver Nov 2019 #22
I'll let you off with a warning this time. jberryhill Nov 2019 #33
Thank you, officer. StarfishSaver Nov 2019 #43
ok CatWoman Nov 2019 #50
Wow, you are important XRubicon Nov 2019 #25
Not as important as some, to be sure jberryhill Nov 2019 #26
What should we do? XRubicon Nov 2019 #28
I dunno, are there classes in detecting sarcasm? jberryhill Nov 2019 #31
they offered one at Trump U. dweller Nov 2019 #36
Sincerity is everything jberryhill Nov 2019 #38
Lol. cwydro Nov 2019 #57
Why Me. Nov 2019 #7
I disagree...respectfully. CincyDem Nov 2019 #8
✔️ blm Nov 2019 #12
I think, "cognizant of the events now transpiring" not_the_one Nov 2019 #47
Your concern is noted. John Fante Nov 2019 #9
I don't like water in my whiskey Hermit-The-Prog Nov 2019 #11
My understanding is that McConnell, like Bevin, is not popular either TheRealNorth Nov 2019 #14
Ah come on, what's not to like about #MoscowMitch? Finishline42 Nov 2019 #21
Why should we care... SixString Nov 2019 #15
I care...because I believe in maximizing the success rate of Democratic candidates. brooklynite Nov 2019 #53
LOL XRubicon Nov 2019 #16
I am with you as far as Kentucky. KentuckyWoman Nov 2019 #17
Let's let KY stew on another year of Dump. roamer65 Nov 2019 #18
Must be a tough night rufus dog Nov 2019 #19
The emotional satisfaction of beating McConnell plays a factor in whether he is realistically beaten TheBlackAdder Nov 2019 #20
Hard to create a solid path to victory without campaign funding. KY_EnviroGuy Nov 2019 #24
Thank you for posting this! Music Man Nov 2019 #27
Good insight here dustyscamp Nov 2019 #34
Here's hoping the Beshear win will energize Dems.... Maybe they'll get... LAS14 Nov 2019 #29
Well, without your money awesomerwb1 Nov 2019 #32
I'm not saying there isn't money that will flow to McGrath... brooklynite Nov 2019 #35
Amy McGrath will not be the only candidate to take on McConnell now standingtall Nov 2019 #37
There's no such thing as a sure thing in this toxic political climate that we live in. Initech Nov 2019 #39
That's saying that winning makes us losers lunatica Nov 2019 #40
Well. sheshe2 Nov 2019 #41
You know what they say.... jberryhill Nov 2019 #58
He's got to go. How do we make him as hated as Bevin? ecstatic Nov 2019 #42
Given McConnel's weakness, I think McGrath is a better bet than Osoff redstateblues Nov 2019 #44
Ossoff is running in GA is one of multiple Primary candidates brooklynite Nov 2019 #56
I thought Osoff ran a weak campaign against Handle redstateblues Nov 2019 #61
He's not my first choice, nor that of my friends in the funding community... brooklynite Nov 2019 #63
To each his own. I'll continue to donate to Amy. sinkingfeeling Nov 2019 #45
For fucks sake why? SlogginThroughIt Nov 2019 #46
Getting Bevin out is excellent...no matter what...and Virginia turned blue tonight...good night. Demsrule86 Nov 2019 #48
Boo? EffieBlack Nov 2019 #49
"Before I invest..." Wait, you invested in Hinkenlooper right? panader0 Nov 2019 #51
Well, there was a lunch dalton99a Nov 2019 #52
Well, dinner actually. brooklynite Nov 2019 #55
...and a dog named "Blue" jberryhill Nov 2019 #59
Dogs aren't allowed in restaurants in NYC... brooklynite Nov 2019 #60
That's not what I've heard jberryhill Nov 2019 #64
"Off the menu" item... brooklynite Nov 2019 #65
No, but I saw something else... brooklynite Nov 2019 #54
It depends on the turnout. kentuck Nov 2019 #66

NoMoreRepugs

(9,461 posts)
4. A 30 point swing is a 30 point swing.
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:26 PM
Nov 2019

With so much more coming out concerning the most corrupt administration in HISTORY anything is possible.

 

jberryhill

(62,444 posts)
10. But it's not your pennies we are investing
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:29 PM
Nov 2019

I’ll bet if you were expecting an ROI from what most people call “donations”, you’d feel differently.

CincyDem

(6,386 posts)
8. I disagree...respectfully.
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:27 PM
Nov 2019

I think this gives Mitch a lot to think about. Bevin wrapped himself up in Trump like no other candidate since Trump's election. What this election says is that Trump's coat tails in KY ain't what he (or Mitch) thinks.

As to the down tickets races - the unfortunate reality is that every one of them was underfunded and virtually invisible in media. Our market (cincinnati) was inundated with ads because we have the Northern KY counties. Beshear was 1:1 with Bevin on ads. The down ticket races, Republicans were 3:1, 4:1 present.

So for me - I'm not going to wait for Amy McGrath to have to prove herself. Beshear's focus on what matters to people (vs. fighting the national left/right debate) is the solid path. Good enough for me.

 

not_the_one

(2,227 posts)
47. I think, "cognizant of the events now transpiring"
Wed Nov 6, 2019, 12:50 AM
Nov 2019

Moscow Mitch may not run.

He is 77. He is now very rich. Does he really want to put up with all the shit that is coming?

The writing on the wall is slowly coming into focus.

Just puttin' that out there.

Hermit-The-Prog

(33,430 posts)
11. I don't like water in my whiskey
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:29 PM
Nov 2019

Beshear's win is GIGANTIC to people drowning in the red zones. It's also gigantic to all the areas of Kentucky where the local school is the largest employer.

TheRealNorth

(9,500 posts)
14. My understanding is that McConnell, like Bevin, is not popular either
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:31 PM
Nov 2019

It bares watching and if it is looking close, it might make sense to put some money there, if for nothing else to hopefully force Republicans to spend money to protect McConnell.

Finishline42

(1,091 posts)
21. Ah come on, what's not to like about #MoscowMitch?
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:37 PM
Nov 2019

It will take a hell of an effort but I've got my fingers crossed that Lt Col (Retired) Amy McGrath will get the job done.

brooklynite

(94,731 posts)
53. I care...because I believe in maximizing the success rate of Democratic candidates.
Wed Nov 6, 2019, 10:39 AM
Nov 2019

You won't max out to every Senate candidate. Therefore you'll make choices. My point is not to make them on the basis of emotion.

KentuckyWoman

(6,692 posts)
17. I am with you as far as Kentucky.
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:33 PM
Nov 2019

Mitch is booed all over the state but come election the count goes his way. GOP runs elections in most of the state....

This said, you are wrong ....A good, well funded campaign could beat him.

 

rufus dog

(8,419 posts)
19. Must be a tough night
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:35 PM
Nov 2019

Go ahead, go to bed early, wake up tomorrow and you may still feel like shit!

As I wrote Sunday night, sometimes it is important just to sit back and listen

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=12650342

Others may just say STFU! Not me, I say just sit back and listen.

Music Man

(1,184 posts)
27. Thank you for posting this!
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:48 PM
Nov 2019

Kentucky teacher here. Yes, we want to celebrate, but your post is a fair one, and it's my feeling tonight too.

The best part of this is that Trump specifically came into Kentucky to campaign for Bevin, and he lost. It's like poking Trump in the eye.

But EVERY other down-ballot Democrat lost, including a popular Secretary of State candidate. Democrats haven't lost the Attorney General race in 70 years. Granted, we nominated a retread, uninspiring candidate in the AG race, but it's an unfortunate loss.

I think this race shows that Kentucky is basically a Republican state that thought its governor was an SOB. Andy Beshear was a good candidate and ran a good race. These results *might* be evidence of some Trump fatigue, but I think the issues are more localized in this particular race.

Democrats would be wise to not see this as a bellwether. Obama contributed much of his success to not getting too low or too high at any given time. Democrats should be on a high tonight, but not *too* high.

All that said, hell yeah, my fellow Kentuckians! Bye bye, Bevin!

LAS14

(13,783 posts)
29. Here's hoping the Beshear win will energize Dems.... Maybe they'll get...
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:49 PM
Nov 2019

.. the idea that a Dem CAN WIN in KY!!!!!

Maybe that 3:1, 4:1 ad count down ballot mentioned up the thread will turn to 2:2 or even 3:1!!!!

awesomerwb1

(4,268 posts)
32. Well, without your money
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:53 PM
Nov 2019

there is no way she can win so let's not even try. However do tell us if you change your mind and decide to donate so we can get our hopes up again.

brooklynite

(94,731 posts)
35. I'm not saying there isn't money that will flow to McGrath...
Tue Nov 5, 2019, 11:59 PM
Nov 2019

...but if you don't have unlimited funds (I don't) ask yourself: which Senate race did you NOT support by giving money to McGrath? And how much research did you do on their respective prospects?

standingtall

(2,787 posts)
37. Amy McGrath will not be the only candidate to take on McConnell now
Wed Nov 6, 2019, 12:10 AM
Nov 2019

Yes other republicans won statewide probably, because Bevin was so unpopular. Guess what though? So is Mitch McConnell. Bevin lost Jefferson County by almost 100,000 votes. The last time McConnell lost Jefferson County by that margin he almost too and in a Presidential election there is potential to come away with a 125,000 vote margin or higher for the Democrat.

Initech

(100,103 posts)
39. There's no such thing as a sure thing in this toxic political climate that we live in.
Wed Nov 6, 2019, 12:15 AM
Nov 2019

This was most definitely a great step in the right direction. But come tomorrow? Who knows? The victory was sweet and should be celebrated with revels. But who can say what's going to happen in the next election?

lunatica

(53,410 posts)
40. That's saying that winning makes us losers
Wed Nov 6, 2019, 12:15 AM
Nov 2019

because we dare to win gladly. Like we’re all going to totally forget the fight isn’t over. Jeez!

ecstatic

(32,731 posts)
42. He's got to go. How do we make him as hated as Bevin?
Wed Nov 6, 2019, 12:28 AM
Nov 2019

There has to be a way to get into the trumper/ traitor mitch psyche, attack from the right, and defeat him.

redstateblues

(10,565 posts)
44. Given McConnel's weakness, I think McGrath is a better bet than Osoff
Wed Nov 6, 2019, 12:40 AM
Nov 2019

Both are difficult but Amy is a great candidate. I’m sending her $.

redstateblues

(10,565 posts)
61. I thought Osoff ran a weak campaign against Handle
Wed Nov 6, 2019, 10:56 AM
Nov 2019

Not sure he can win a statewide election when he couldn’t win a suburban race

brooklynite

(94,731 posts)
63. He's not my first choice, nor that of my friends in the funding community...
Wed Nov 6, 2019, 10:59 AM
Nov 2019

I've met with Teresa Tomlinson, but have been clear that I won't play favorites in the Primary.

 

SlogginThroughIt

(1,977 posts)
46. For fucks sake why?
Wed Nov 6, 2019, 12:50 AM
Nov 2019

Really this is what we are going to do tonight? I don’t mean to be a jerk but come on man. This is balogna.

panader0

(25,816 posts)
51. "Before I invest..." Wait, you invested in Hinkenlooper right?
Wed Nov 6, 2019, 10:30 AM
Nov 2019

Did you see a solid path to victory with him?

brooklynite

(94,731 posts)
54. No, but I saw something else...
Wed Nov 6, 2019, 10:41 AM
Nov 2019

I saw value in presenting to the electorate a candidate message that wasn't a traditional east-coast/west-coast liberal one.

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