Iran's Retaliation

[berni_mccoy]

It is hard to imagine that Iran will enter into a full on ground war in the Middle East. They know ultimately they will lose that fight.

That does not mean the damage they can inflict will be any less. And they will seek to maximize that damage on the U. S. World Wide.

That means hostages, restricting oil tankers and commerce through the straight of Hormuz, attacks on US and Israeli embassies and attacks on flights that carry a majority of US or Israeli passengers.

This will be a long drawn out conflict that will hurt Americans physically and economically. Expect many civilian casualties world wide, fuel and gas shortages, unbridled inflation and a massive amount of debt spent trying to prevent all of that is to come.

This all assumes of course that Trump doesn’t do something insane like bombard Iran with nukes. Given his desire to nuke a hurricane I somewhat expect that to be an option at the top of the list.

There are no good exits here.

[BeyondGeography]

1. You can accuse them of a lot of things

Lack of imagination isn’t one of them.

[braddy]

2. In other words continuing their usual except that they lost their top terrorist mastermind so it

will be more difficult for them, I doubt they will be taking anymore of our GIs prisoner anytime soon.

[abqtommy]

3. The Iranians are well-positioned militarily and with their cyber-warfare capabilities. They can

wreak havoc without firing a shot, just like tRUMP does with his speech and tweets. It's not gonna end well.

[sandensea]

4. My guess is that they won't

They know Cheeto's trying to provoke a war as a Hail Mary pass to save his re-election chances.

Which of course is the last thing they want (very few countries, outside far-right dictatorships and narco states, do).

But therein lies the danger: once he realizes Iran won't bite, what will he try next?

John "new Pearl harbor" Bolton has some ideas of what that could be, no doubt - and don't tell me Cheeto wouldn't.

He'd do anything he thinks might save his presidency.

[dewsgirl]

7. They will not let this slide. They will have to save face, I imagine

most items in the OP, are now highly probable.

[sandensea]

8. Their people no doubt want that - but the leadership, I think, knows better.

They know that if they escalate this, they'd be giving Cheeto exactly what he wants.

And lest we forget, Trump's been provoking them from day one - and through all that, Tehran has not abandoned their no-engage policy.

They know the Orange Oaf is begging, hoping, wishing and praying for war. And that - besides the risks to their own country - is why Tehran probably won't respond.

And that's also why I really think Cheeto is mulling something along the lines of a false-flag attack.

Americans would probably die - but the way Trump sees it: you make an omelet, you break a few eggs.

That's how much the fat bastard cares for his own country.

[dewsgirl]

10. I hate that there are pieces here that we are missing, there has

to be a bigger Putin advantage here than we are seeing. There was a thread here last night, we were discussing how incredibly frustrating this is.

[sandensea]

15. I suppose his most obvious interest in an Iran war, is higher oil prices

Putin and Iran have become allies since Bush invaded Iraq, true.

But the prospect of $150-a barrel oil must be tempting to the Vladster - plus seeing the U.S. stuck in another awful quagmire would be another big plus.

And to our defense contractors as well.

Bad faith makes for such strange bedfellows.

[dewsgirl]

16. It really does make strange bedfellows.

[sandensea]

19. To say nothing of Nutty yahoo!

If anyone wants a war with Iran, it's him!

What Bibi always wanted also, was a president ignorant enough, crass enough, extreme enough, bribeable enough, and treasonous enough that he would fight Israel's war for him - no matter how much U.S. blood and treasure is to be shed.

And he finally got such a U.S. president.



"You really think this could get me re-elected?"

"Donald! When have I ever lied to you? (you witless dolt)"

[dewsgirl]

5. You forgot Cyber attacks.

[berni_mccoy]

6. Russia has that covered.

[ripcord]

9. Iran is already having economic problems

What will happen if the US sets up a total blockade of Iran? Food and medical supplies can be trucked in but there will be no way to move meaningful quantities of oil except by ship.

[roamer65]

12. They will be brought in from China and Russia via overland routes from Pakistan.

Also through Iraq via Turkey.

[ripcord]

13. What about oil shipments?

Iran's Navy consists of small boats, there is nothing they could to stop a total sea blockade.

[berni_mccoy]

14. We don't have a big enough Navy to enforce a total sea blockade

[ripcord]

17. Have you looked at a map of Iran?

It is probably one of the easiest countries in the world to blockade, the USN only has to set up in the Arabian Sea right outside the mouth of the Gulf of Oman.

[burrowowl]

18. Please read article

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/12/washington/12navy.html

[roamer65]

11. Assymetric warfare in Iraq using Shi'a militias.

That will be their response.