Iran plane crash may have been 'shootdown event', aviation experts say

[Dennis Donovan]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-plane-crash-shootdown-ukraine-boeing-latest-a9275051.html

Ukraine initially said plane crash was result of technical failure, before retracting statement

Olivia Alabaster @OliviaAlabaster,
Simon Calder @SimonCalder,
Oliver Carroll @olliecarroll

1 hour ago

129 comments

Doubts have been cast over Iranian assertions that a deadly Ukrainian plane crash near Tehran was the result of technical failures, with independent aviation operations experts saying a “shootdown” was the most likely explanation.

Iranian officials said technical issues were behind the Ukrainian International Airlines (UIA) crash, which happened shortly after take-off from Imam Khomeini International Airport on Wednesday morning, killing all 176 people on board.

The Ukrainian embassy in Tehran initially echoed this stance, but later retracted its statement, and instead said it was for an official commission to determine the cause of the accident.

While some aviation experts said it was too early to speculate, the OPS group, an aviation risk monitoring group, said: “We would recommend the starting assumption to be that this was a shootdown event, similar to MH17 – until there is clear evidence to the contrary," highlighting photos of the crash site which they said "show obvious projectile holes in the fuselage and a wing section."

UIA has also discounted the possibility of technical problems, insisting there was “nothing wrong” with the three-year old Boeing 737-800, which had undergone a scheduled technical check only two days earlier.

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[mr_lebowski]

1. Very odd ... thoughts go out to the lost and their families, first off ...

Secondly ... if this was some sort of 'act' by Iran, why would they attack a plane with lots of Iranians on board, and on their own soil?

That would make zero sense, strategically.

Now ... afa some other 'actors' that might be present in Iran ... who knows?

[Dennis Donovan]

2. I'm guessing it was unintentional. It departed from Tehran's airport.

This was after the missiles were launched, so Iran was likely on alert for a possible retaliation. They might've mistook it for a hostile aircraft?

The flight profile shows the aircraft @ 8000 ft when all ADS-B (a system that broadcasts info from the plane) telemetry stopped, as well as all communication.

The debris field from the crash is also over a wide area (not concentrated like it would be if the aircraft came down intact):
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212852151

[Bev54]

3. I don't think it was shot down

It may have been a bomb or something on board we may have to wait and see. We have video of the plane in the sky and there was no projectiles shown hitting the plane. There were 63 Canadians on board and I don't think Iran would take out Iranians, Ukrainians and Canadians. If it was sabotage, I would bet money it was not Iran.

[Dennis Donovan]

4. The video is of it coming down

...nothing before the accident.

[cwydro]

10. Yes, and in the video it appears to be on fire and in one piece.

No pieces falling or separating.

[Dennis Donovan]

14. I couldn't make out anything except fire and darkness in the video.

You saw the fuselage intact? Screenshot it maybe?

[VMA131Marine]

15. Not sure what you were looking at

but there were clearly pieces falling off the aircraft as it fell in the amateur video that has been released

[Dennis Donovan]

40. *cough*

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212856240

[VMA131Marine]

17. I don't think it was shot down *intentionally*

but it was almost certainly shot down.

There is one other possibility and that's a mid-air collision. Were the US and/or Iran operating UAVs in the area? Even so, the sudden loss of all communication and transponder data is more suggestive of a missile strike.

[Bev54]

32. If there was a mid air collision they would know by now.

It would also show on the radar if there was a missile. I am really hoping that they allow Canada to do the testing on the black box, afterall 68 people on board were Canadians and 138 people on board were changing planes in Kiev to fly to Toronto. I think we have a big stake in the investigation.

[VMA131Marine]

47. Not necessarily

A drone would be operating without a transponder most likely so it would not give a primary radar return and would be invisible to ATC. Only subsequent analysis for a secondary return, i.e. for a direct reflection of the radar signal from the drone, would show whether this is a plausible explanation (plus the existence of drone debris on the ground of course). This all seems moot now that it is almost certain that the UIA flight was shot down.

[mainer]

8. It would not be Iranians shooting it down.

But another entity. Maybe one that’s itching for war with Iran.

[VMA131Marine]

18. Not intentionally, no!

The US Navy also didn't intentionally shoot down an Iranian airliner over the Persian Gulf either; they misidentified it as a hostile aircraft.

[Dennis Donovan]

41. IRANIAN MISSILE SYSTEM SHOT DOWN UKRAINE FLIGHT, PROBABLY BY MISTAKE, SOURCES SAY

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212856240

(Sorry for the caps - Newsweek headline writers have stuck caps locks )

[VMA131Marine]

45. Which is what I've been saying all along

The Iranian Government is now about to engage in a massive cover-up to hide their culpability.

[Dennis Donovan]

46. Yep.

Count on it.

On edit:

Link to tweet

[Baclava]

58. Russian missile fired by Iran shoots down Ukraine airliner

An international mess if there ever was one

[Johnny2X2X]

5. That's a busy airport

There would be planes taking off all the time and planes in the air around the airport. That's why I don't think this was an accidental shoot down. Seeing a plane there would not be alarming to anti aircraft weapon operators.

Iran will try to blame this on the US.

[Dennis Donovan]

6. We thought Iran Air 655 was an Iranian F-14.

A shootdown is plausible.

[mainer]

7. A reminder: the Vicennes. We shot down an Iranian passenger jet

And we never took full responsibility. In The fog of war, might the US have mistaken a civilian aircraft for a military attack... again?

[Dennis Donovan]

9. Not the US. More likely Iran, by mistake.

[sarisataka]

11. How did the US

Shoot this plane?

Did we smuggle a Patriot battery 300 miles inside Iran and set it up overlooking the Tehran airport without anyone noticing?

[LanternWaste]

20. With a surface to air missile. No smuggling neccesary.

Killed all 290 of 'em too. Including 60+ children.

[Dennis Donovan]

24. I believe that was a genuine mistake on the Vincennes' part

Their explanation was the most plausible (mistaken identity thru a series of errors).

[sarisataka]

28. Look at a map of Iran

And where Tehran is located. Tell me how we could have fired a SAM to hit a plane taking off.

I am talking about the incident yesterday, not the one over the Gulf

[backscatter712]

49. The most likely scenario seems to be Iran accidentally shooting the plane down yesterday.

Not that the U.S. is immune to such accidents, but your point is valid - it seems to have happeened too far away from the nearest U.S. forces in this case.

[Baclava]

12. Now they are refusing to turn over the black boxes for analysis?

Iran says it will not give black box from crashed airliner to Boeing

Leaders of Ukraine and Canada vow to find cause of crash that killed dozens of their citizens

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/08/iran-says-it-will-not-give-black-box-from-crashed-airliner-to-boeing

[Dennis Donovan]

13. Not giving them to Boeing or US authorities - I hope they give them to the Ukrainians

...who give them to us and Boeing.

[Baclava]

25. "This accident will be investigated by Iran's aviation organization"

Ukraine can call France to help with the investigation, but the data recovery is the most important thing

[Dennis Donovan]

26. The physical wreckage is important as well. That would show telltale signs of an accident

...or an intentional impact from another flying object.

[Baclava]

30. For sure, planes dont just explode in mid-air 2 minutes after take-off

Thats what happened

[Dennis Donovan]

31. Inspected 2 days before the accident.

At 8000 ft, something so catastrophic happened to the aircraft that the crew never radioed or indicated distress, and the ADS-B on the aircraft stopped sending telemetry immediately.

Occam's razor-stuff here.

[mitch96]

54. "planes dont just explode in mid-air 2 minutes after take-off"

My guess is a ISIS bomb on board.. No proof and just a hunch... The investigators could tell if a shoot down by the way the metal is twisted. Pushed in is missile.. pushed out, bomb..
YMMV

[Baclava]

55. Yeah, the wreckage needs to be swabbed for explosive residue, might tell more than data recorders

Ukraine investigators are on the ground, maybe Canada will come in too

[Voltaire2]

16. Why would they give any US entity anything?

[VMA131Marine]

19. The black boxes would not normally go to Boeing

even if the accident was in the US and involved a Boeing aircraft: the NTSB would take possession of them. There are other entities with similar capabilities. I'd bet they will go to the French under the auspices of EASA. That's what happened with the DFDR and CVR from the Ethiopian 737 MAX crash.

[Dennis Donovan]

23. Yep. Sending them to Boeing 1st could give them an opportunity to tamper with the data

At some point, Boeing engineering would be involved as part of the investigation, but the investigation itself would be handled by NTSB.

[Baclava]

29. Yes, get the data recorders done first, its the crucial part of any crash investigation

The aircraft and engine manufacturers are always usually involved too

[killaphill]

51. Why would the Iranians trust an American company?

I am fully confident the Iranians will get to the bottom of this and determine the cause of the mechanical failure.

[backscatter712]

53. I'm betting the Iranian government knows they fucked up.

My bet - accidental shootdown by one of Iran's SAM batteries. A Mach 5 missile slamming into the aircraft with a high explosive warhead - that'll cause mechanical failures alright...

[EX500rider]

57. "I am fully confident the Iranians will get to the bottom of this"

I am confident they will too...however I have zero confidence the Ayatollahs will release any report that makes Iran look bad.

[maxsolomon]

21. This is on Trump.

It will eventually come out that this was an Iranian Surface to Air missile or an AA battery. Someone panicked and fucked up. Big time.

No assassination, no high alert, no deadly decisions forced on low-ranking soldiers like the Russian fools in Donbas.

Please note: I am speculating as to the facts. I am surmising. I am not a FAA investigator.

[Dennis Donovan]

22. *If* shot down by Iran, had to be a complete eff-up on their part (not intentional)

They would have no motive to do so, plus they were once the victims of an accidental shootdown. I don't think they would sacrifice that victim status by doing the same thing themselves.

[at140]

27. Most plausible what you posted

US missile 300 miles inside Iran is not an error, it is a huge blunder, and US missile operators very unlikely to make that blunder.

[backscatter712]

50. Things like this happen when dumbass politicians start rattling sabers.

Trump and Khameini get in a pissing contest, both sides' militaries go on high alert. And occasionally do things like bluff-attacks, more aggressive reconnaissance (as in spy-plane flights, or fighters with recon gear), and thus SAM operators along with other military units go on high alert, and may be on a hair-trigger.

[maxsolomon]

56. This year's Pas-de-deux with the Supreme Ayatollah.

Last year it was Kim Jong Un.

Both benefit, nothing changes.

[Rhiannon12866]

33. More: It Sure Looks Like the Ukrainian Airliner May Have Been Accidentally Shot Down in Iran

In the wake of the crash of Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752 in Tehran this morning, two schools of thought quickly emerged. The first accepted the explanation given by Iranian authorities: that the 3-year-old 737-800, which had taken off minutes before, had suffered engine failure before plunging into the ground at Khalaj Abad, killing all 176 aboard. The second, widespread on the internet, was that the Kiev-bound plane had been accidentally shot down by an Iranian air-defense missile.

Given that the facts are just starting to trickle in, it’s far too early to say with any certainty what actually happened. Based on past experience, much of what has been reported as fact will turn out to be wrong; the true cause may very well turn out to be something no one has yet considered. But given the information we have right now, the second explanation makes more sense than the first.

According to flight data recorded by Flightradar 24, the plane took off at 2:42 universal time, or 6.12 a.m. local time, a little more than three hours after Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at Iraqi bases hosting U.S. troops. Three minutes later, it had reached an altitude of nearly 8,000 feet and was continuing to climb at a steady ground speed of 276 knots, or 318 mph. Then, abruptly, it dropped. A state-run Iranian media outlet released a video that appeared to show the aircraft descending in flames before impacting the ground.

An Iranian official told the IRNA news agency that a fire had broken out in one of the engines, causing the pilot to lose control.

Engine malfunctions can certainly cause planes to crash but generally not in the manner observed with Flight 752. The wing, not the engine, is what keeps a plane in the air, and even if a plane loses power in all its engines, it can still glide for a considerable distance under pilot control (see: the Miracle on the Hudson). Even if an engine catches fire, the flight crew generally has time to respond.


More: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/01/iran-plane-737-crash-in-tehran-was-it-shot-down.html


Photo: Ali Mohammadi/Bloomberg via Getty Images

[Dennis Donovan]

36. It's the most probable cause

Iran was on high alert for retaliation after their missile launches. AA batteries were manned and, likely, a bit jumpy.

This is Occam's razor stuff.

[scarytomcat]

38. so dimwit is responsible for causing all this shit

unintended consequences send him back to the children's table

[Dennis Donovan]

39. If he hadn't assassinated Soleimani, they would've been no missile response

...no missile response, then AAA batteries wouldn't have been waiting anxiously for a response to the missiles (if the plane was shot down by AAA).

[kentuck]

34. Very suspicious.

Both Iraq and US were warned that missiles were going to be fired?

Did either of them have time or incentive to do something like that?

[sarisataka]

37. How would either of them

Had the time/ability to get an antiaircraft unit close enough to the Tehran airport to shoot the plane down?

[Liberal In Texas]

35. Usually when a perfectly good airliner disintigrates in the air

and the wreckage is spread over a wide area it was because it was either shot down or there was a bomb on board.

IMHO

[kentuck]

42. Are there any circumstances that Iran would shoot down their own plane?

Could they have been so paranoid that Donald Trump might bomb their country?

That when they shot the missiles, they were certain that Trump would react immediately?

That if the plane was shot down during the American counter-attack, the loss of life could have been blamed on Donald Trump...

Strange things can happen in a war... or perceived war.

[VMA131Marine]

48. No, but ...

There are circumstances in which a Russian-built missile system operated by Iranians with Russian "advisors" might shoot down a Ukranian aircraft.

[backscatter712]

52. Not intentionally.

But given Trump's psychopathic tantrums, I imagine Iran's military was on high alert, and their SAM batteries were on a hair-trigger.

[MineralMan]

44. No. The plane crashed shortly after take off from Tehran.

We don't have any anti=aircraft weapons anywhere near Tehran. See a map of the area.

Why would you think the US shot it down? Makes no sense at all.