Dang... 2-year Treasury yield on pace for biggest daily drop since March 2009

[Roland99]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/2-year-treasury-yield-on-pace-for-biggest-daily-drop-since-march-2009-2020-02-28?mod=markets

In a sign of mounting expectations for the Federal Reserve to slash rates this year, the 2-year Treasury note yield is on pace for its biggest one-day decline since March 18, 2009. The short-dated maturity TMUBMUSD02Y, -20.27% was down 19.7 basis points to 0.906% on Friday. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields. Sensitive to bets on the direction of interest rates, the 2-year note yield has plunged more than 50 basis points over the last two weeks as traders in the fed funds futures market have priced in at least one quarter percentage point rate cut in March, CME Group data show.

[unblock]

1. futures predict: 1 or 2 quarter-point cuts by march 18 fomc meeting and a full point by september 16

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

at the moment, the futures markets are predicting a 42.8% chance of a 50 basis point cut and 57.2% of a 25 basis point cut.

zero percentage chance of not cutting at all.