General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums40-70% of every adult in the world over the age of 35 will be infected. Millions will die
https://m.&feature=youtu.beBad news and the projections are mathematically sound.
Thomas Hurt
(13,903 posts)Hell, they could still write it off as God's will as long as the right people are dying.
louis-t
(23,297 posts)defacto7
(13,485 posts)for the last 2000 years. Like all the others it will do it's natural thing and the remaining religionists will start all over.. repent, for bla bla. Strange, Jesus never comes.
Thomas Hurt
(13,903 posts)I imagine the end timers are giddy.
cwydro
(51,308 posts)They arent Christofascists I dont think.
CountAllVotes
(20,878 posts)as all hell!!
defacto7
(13,485 posts)mn9driver
(4,428 posts)Equals 100 million dead worldwide.
edhopper
(33,623 posts)due to the unreported cases. So maybe only 50 million or so...Yea!
If you listen to him, he says about 98% of those infected will experience no symptoms.
The 3% mortality rate applies to those who have symptoms.
So the overall population mortality is approx 2% * 3% or 0.06%
edhopper
(33,623 posts)Pobeka
(4,999 posts)Grim.
A lot could be avoided with proactive steps to prevent spread, and give time to develop vaccines.
coti
(4,612 posts)berni_mccoy
(23,018 posts)If you look at China with 80k cases, 3k deaths and 53k recovered, assuming little-no further infections in that country, that death rate is somewhere between 4-5% once all of the remaining 27k unresolved cases resolve.
defacto7
(13,485 posts)50-100 million. It's all speculative though.
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)defacto7
(13,485 posts)But I think a 100% leeway could cover the difference. But then, maybe not. Analogies are for picturing the magnitude anyway, not for measuring stats. It will be somewhere between 4000 and 7 billion.
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)possibly it will be ongoing.
CountAllVotes
(20,878 posts)NOT GOOD no matter how they try to spin this crap!
abqtommy
(14,118 posts)reports of advances in treatment, in mitigating contact and chances for infection. So I choose not to focus on what I'm beginning to rightly call "fear mongering" and turn my attention and energy to survivability. For me that's a far better use of my energy. I don't get much out of being afraid...
defacto7
(13,485 posts)I'd be a lot more... blissful.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)other than doing what I can individually, and knowing my government has already FUBARed it, what else can I do? Pointless to panic. It's coming and I'll get it or I won't.
defacto7
(13,485 posts)Jarqui
(10,130 posts)They've done it via quarantine.
There's no vaccine for 12-18 months at best - if they can come up with one.
Why not begin preparations for quarantine now?
It is the only way to curtail spreading it.
We've already started preparations at our house.
When it hits your community, that's what they're going to ask you to do.
There's no other option I can see at this point.
durablend
(7,465 posts)And are evicted? Where are you going to quarantine then?
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)coughing and dripping with fevers? What CEO wants to be surrounded by infected employees? What other employees will want that?
80% of the country will get sick if they do nothing.
If people are too sick to work, how will they pay their rent? Or pay for food?
We're going to have a problem regardless. Probably need to start growing the food banks in preparation.
There will be interruptions from supply chains around the world and folks will get laid off - regardless - worse if they don't do something like quarantine.
There will be significant financial problems regardless - worse if they don't do something like quarantine.
It's going to be a mess regardless - worse if they don't do something like quarantine.
The Chinese assessed they were better off minimizing the illness in their country by quarantine. There are reports that they're close to lifting the quarantine and going back to work.
I doubt the best path is to do nothing.
Without a vaccine, what path is there aside from quarantine or do nothing? None that seem very attractive that I'm aware of. But I'm no expert - maybe someone has better idea.
gristy
(10,667 posts)The one over-arching goal until there is a vaccine is to get and keep the virus's basic reproductive number below 1. Lifting the quarantine is certain to bring it back above 1. Keeping it in place will save lives. Lifting it will cost lives.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)If everyone stays where they are for four weeks or so
Those that have the virus or live with them get the virus and then they either die or live.
That brings it way down below 1.
Either you do that or 100+ million will die.
SoCalNative
(4,613 posts)they've just been doing it from home. Nothing to stop those who can here from doing the same.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)Coventina
(27,172 posts)(our biggest sector of the economy)
Service jobs like retail, hospitality, dining, entertainment, etc. can't work from home.
Sure, you can shut down all the stores, restaurants, theaters, etc. but then those people don't generally get sick time or any other PTO.
Their businesses close, they are out of work, evicted, etc.
What then?
Quixote1818
(28,979 posts)The streets are empty. You can't do that in most countries.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)al bupp
(2,192 posts)They could very well be employing the benefits of an authoritarian regime and suppressing news of further infections.
Also all mortality rate estimates require a reasonably accurate tally of total infections that I doubt exist anywhere on the planet due to the lack of widespread testing. This also affects the assessment of the proportion of infections which lead to illness.
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)Someone from World Heath Org wrote an article/report after visiting China checking on it - suspecting as you do and I did. They claim it is the real deal.
I have since read several reports since saying something roughly similar.
I have been personally monitoring the Chinese number that has hovered around 80,000 for some time.
Is that absolute proof? No way.
But increasingly, it appears to be true.
cwydro
(51,308 posts)Who work in dialysis centers? Who work with those who need daily care? How about cops, firefighters, paramedics? Are they going to stay home too?
We just going to forget all those vulnerable folks and let them die while we hunker down in our homes fondling our toilet paper, eating our canned food, drinking our bottled water, and worshiping our wee bottles of Purell?
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)What is probably going to have to happen is something like the Chinese did - setting up dedicated treatment areas. Non-medical people will probably have to step up and help treat people while doctors and nurses quarterback the multiple pairs of hands. A number of them will be folks who got the virus and survived it.
The Chinese setup up delivery systems for food and essentials.
Will some fall through the cracks? Sad to say, probably.
If we don't try to quarantine, you'll probably see worse.
CountAllVotes
(20,878 posts)There were 120+ new cases reported today in Shanghai!
Do not believe the CPP lies!
Do not spread their lies!
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)the spread of the virus.
You have no choice but to attempt what China did - a quarantine.
In a country of over a billion people, as China is, you expect an instant 100% result with a virus that can lie dormant for weeks? And absolutely no new cases?
That's an absurd expectation. Ridiculous. If you've watched it as I have, there has been a trickle of cases. It stabilized around 80,000 in terms of arresting exponential growth ... which leads to an R value of less than one - the infection should die out if it doesn't mutate into something else.
This is from the World Health Organization who went to China to check it out
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to
implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these measures.
You are clearly failing on that last sentence.
That is not China saying that. It is the World Health Organization who went to check it out. I've seen other sources that corroborate them.
China is doing the only thing they could to stop it. That is not such a stretch to appreciate regardless of where they are politically. Guess what? If it is not done elsewhere, a lot of people are going to die. There is no vaccine. This is very simple medical logic that is hard to implement 100%.