Well, Kansas just got its first confirmed case. To me that suggests that there are probably one

[tblue37]

or two hundred unrecognized cases.

[USALiberal]

1. Kansas had a case last week! nt

[tblue37]

3. Maybe I missed that story. There's only 1 confirmed, so it must be the same one--a woman in

Johnson County.

[lapfog_1]

2. that sounds high to me

is possible because 1 is the minimal sample... but the usual quoted ratio of detected to undetected is 10 to 1...

But that assumes someone bothers to test for it when really sick people present themselves at the ER or doctors office.

[Pobeka]

5. And assumes the population isn't in denial and *will* ask to be tested when they have symptoms.

It is Kansas, heavy % of GOP'ers.

[Midnight Writer]

4. Just heard 38 States now accounted for. The infection rate will grow exponentially.

1 infects 2, 2 infects 4, 4 infects 8, etc.. Pretty soon we are talking huge numbers.

[Blue_true]

7. Exponential is steeper than your example.

Your example is a rising line of slope 2. Exponential would be 2 infect 12, 12 infect 180........

One person on a typical day comes in close contact with 10-200 people, depending what that person does. So one person can infect 200. In real life it works a little differently. Let's say the only person is breathing out droplets on a still day, the people among the 200 would be the ones unlucky enough to walk into a cloud of droplets, other people among the 200 may avoid that fate, so the one person infect say just 56 people, for example.

[Pobeka]

6. We are like Italy was two weeks ago. n/t