Will Trump approval go below 40%?

[edhopper]

That seems to be his floor with the deplorables. I have seen no evidence from the Trumpsters that he is losing support yet.

[htuttle]

1. The question right now is, 40% of how many?

[TwilightZone]

2. Unless he loses Republicans, his floor is probably high 30s.

They're roughly 30% of the electorate and right-leaners another 15% or so. Just throwing out numbers, 90% of the former and, say, 70% of the latter is ~38%.

He was down to 37% for a while a couple years ago, so that's probably about right.

If he loses Rs, all bets are off, though I don't see him dropping below 35% unless hell freezes over and he can't convince the deplorables that it's all the Democrats' fault.

I read that he can mathematically win the EC with about 45% or slightly less (assuming no big third-party draws), so 40% or below would be helpful for November.

[empedocles]

5. My bet is on 'follow the money'. DJi losses stay down for awhile, all sorts of

folks will notice more.

[Retail, meaning individual, investors had a buying spike to a huge high in January].

[TwilightZone]

6. The perceived "good" economy is the only thing holding him in the 40s, in my opinion.

That's why he's desperately trying to stop the bleeding. The economy is all he really has, especially where right-leaning independents are concerned. That fails, and we might see a lot shift to Biden.

[empedocles]

3. 538 reported a trump approval drop from 44.6 to 42.3 according to

DU Awsi Dooger yesterday.

Nice drop for 1 month.

[TwilightZone]

4. Yep, Newsweek noted similar numbers.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13076660

[edhopper]

7. 40% still looks like the floor

Bush hit 25% after Katrina, but today they can see no bad when it comes to Trump.

[empedocles]

11. 538 trump polled under 40 for several months.

This last month does not help his floor much

[Awsi Dooger]

13. On 538 it hasn't been below 41% since early November

That's the number I have in mind, dropping back to 41% range. It was 42% on election day 2018 when we fared so well.

Unfortunately not many services are polling this right now. The 538 number is heavily influenced by YouGov. As we get closer to the fall campaign more sources will have numbers to blend into the consensus.

Middle to late 2017 was his low water mark basically 37-38%. I don't think it's realistic to drop back to that level. It was after a period of outrageous conduct and statements, following the Charlottesville rally in mid August. Now that type of thing is accepted as his norm. The same statements would not have the same impact, IMO.

I'm heavily in the stock market and did not sell enough. Now I'm forced to basically wade this out. But I'm a big picture type and fully willing to take a huge financial knock if it helps get this jackass out of office.

[empedocles]

14. the 'TRUMP HOAX VIRUS', may not be accepted as a trump norm for quite awhile.

My bet, is that next few months will be 24-7 virus - pounding trumpVIRUS, trumpDOW downward.

Imo, mid 30's is possible.

[HarlanPepper]

8. I've got him pegged at 37 percent by the end of next week.

It will be the first signs. The cult is roughly 30-35, in my estimation.

[empedocles]

12. Imo - the cult is near 20%, the next 20% or so, will be heard from, analyzed to hell

[hurple]

9. If Tom Hanks dies...

His rating will tank.

Take that to the bank.

🙄

[doc03]

10. When they start burying them. nt