anyone remember slope in math? this has me worried....

[NRaleighLiberal]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

look at the 2 graphs, and how the slope is changing the past week.

also, in the chart, it is obvious how much we are undertesting, and likely under reporting.

Italy is just getting hammered. We may join them soon.

[SiliconValley_Dem]

1. The letter e. Exponential

[berni_mccoy]

2. It's geometric growth

And there is only one way to slow it down: stop gathering socially.

We will get to the point where the public will have to stay home for 6-7 weeks.

[Phoenix61]

3. Lots more people being tested.

Except for here because we have an idiot in charge.

[mucifer]

4. I am just surprised we haven't seen ICUs slammed with "the flu" since no one is being tested

That's what will come next I fear.

[at140]

5. What H1n1 virus pandemic of 2009 did in USA

Since it started circulating in the spring of 2009, H1N1 had infected about 100 million Americans, killing about 75,000 and sending 936,000 to the hospital, the CDC estimates. Corona virus can result in similar numbers.

[karynnj]

6. Virus propagation is modeled as geometric

The curves are scary.

[yonder]

7. My understanding it that we are about 10 days behind Italy.

[Moostache]

8. There are 2 things to consider right now...

1) the capacity of the healthcare system to handle massive influx of critical patients - some 1,000,000 TOTAL hospital beds nationwide?
2) 96.3% of infections have currently been categorized as "mild/discharge" or "recovered"... which is still a ghastly number of serious cases or dead people...

#1 is of primary concern to keep a bad situation from becoming a total catastrophe. If the virus runs away on an exponential exposure curve - if large sporting events turn into viral multipliers for instance; and 250 infected becomes 25,000 in a matter of hours - then everyone is fucked - healthy, sick, immune compromised or hale...avoiding unnecessary crowds and lengthy exposures to them is essential to protect everyone else.

#2 is of no comfort to those who become impacted by a loss during this pandemic, but it is also not the common flu either. This is serious because if #1 is not keyed on and contained as much as possible, then #2 won't help when 100,000,000's globally are infected.

The only things that matter are tracking and understanding the infected centers and ensuring that people are taken care of without seeing the worst of human nature run amok...

The exposure rate in the USA is almost assuredly double or triple what is being reported, if not significantly higher than that.

[Ms. Toad]

11. #1 does not depend on some far-out scenario.

The growth is doubling roughly every 6 days. That means 6 days before absolute full capacity we will only be at half-capacity, and 6 days before that only 1/4 capacity.

That math is not sinking in. We are OK until we aren't, and not being OK will happen pretty much instantaneously.

Being in deep doo-doo on resources doesn't require a large sports event as a multiplier, it merely requires doing nothing while the illness continues to double.

[Ms. Toad]

9. Some of us have been discussing this since mid-January.

Yes, it's scary. Yes, we can still do something - help others who are still sticking their head in teh sand see what you are now seeing.

We're about 10 days behind Italy in documented cases - BUT - we're not testing so we're likely not even that far behind.

[lapfog_1]

10. Actually those graphs reveal even more

Starts out exponential... then there is this "hump" where the curve starts to bend horizontal, then it resumes the exponential path.

That hump is China and South Korea... and to a lesser extent Japan, getting a handle on the virus by testing extensively and implementing draconian self isolation conditions... entire nation on lock down.

Then, of course, the virus migrates to Europe (Italy) and the US (a couple of weeks behind Italy)... and it resumes the exponential growth.

Of course it will bend over again... but the question is how far up the hockey stick will we be when it does... depends totally on our actions.