'Don't believe the numbers': Johns Hopkins prof says up to 500,000 Americans have coronavirus

[Quixote1818]

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19, also known as the new coronavirus, to be a pandemic on March 11.

The virus has killed thousands of people worldwide, with over 135,000 confirmed cases and over 5,000 deaths. Public reaction has been mixed — many people have been rushing to grocery stores to stock up for a potential quarantine, while others have called the responses to be an overreaction.

According to Dr. Marty Makary, a medical professor at Johns Hopkins University, the coronavirus is something that “people need to take seriously.”

“I’m concerned when I hear a neighbor or a friend say that they’re planning to go to a kid’s swim meet in three weeks or going on vacation next week,” Makary said on Yahoo Finance’s “On the Move” (video above) on Friday. “No — we’re about to experience the worst public health epidemic since polio.”

‘Don’t believe the numbers you see’
In the U.S. there are over 1,600 confirmed cases, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with 41 deaths. Makary said that the number of cases, though, is likely much higher.

“Don’t believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus,” he said. “No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed.”

He added: “I think we have between 50,000 and half a million cases right now walking around in the United States.”

Part of the reason the number of cases might be higher without people realizing it is because of the shortage of coronavirus testing kits from the CDC. Between Jan. 18 and March 12, there were 13,624 tests for COVID-19 conducted in the U.S. Meanwhile, South Korea has conducted over 100,000 tests, and the U.K. has tested nearly 25,000 people.

More: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/marty-makary-on-coronavirus-in-the-us-183558545.html

[greenjar_01]

1. Epidemiologists are going to start reviewing December-January US hospitalizations

For COVID-19 like symptoms. I suspect we'll find that even severe cases requiring hospitalization have been circulating in the US since December. I don't know about 500,000, but we all know it's far more than 2500. I'd guess 100,000 active, with perhaps another 30,000 already through it and recovered or partially recovered.

[Quixote1818]

2. He said between 50,000 and a half million. So it could be closer to your number. nt

[NewJeffCT]

4. In China

the conspiracy theory is that the severe flu from the US last year was really misdiagnosed coronavirus and that it was brought to Wuhan by US persons during an international conference there in October.

[Igel]

3. Alternative: "Don't believe the hype: JH prof says as few as 50,000 Americans are infected."

One is as accurate and credible as the other.

It's a testable thing, however. Check back in 15 or so days. Will there be 1000 or 10000 new deaths by then?

Oh. Wait. He's also including the asymptomatic cases, not just those that are likely to trigger a test. So since that's averaging (best, although still ridiculously bad, data say < 50% of cases are asymptomatic), let's take 1/3 of those: 330 versus 3300.

I mean, he could have had it at the time of the quote.

I look at all the numbers available and think, "Gee, what do I actually know?"

I know that the number of new cases is largely an artefact of testing.

I know that the number of cases curve is scary, but it's because of the function used: It's a sum, and it'll take a big decrease to show up as not scary. Recalibrating the scare-o-meter, and the #-of-cases curve is bleached of much terror.

The number of deaths is scary when there's a jump. And obviously wrong when there's a dip. And there's the bias, letting "scared" out-think "smart". The numbers are there, low, and more jittery than the average DUer. More noise than signal, because of the way the disease spreads (not random, but networked) and mortality's distributed (the old die are more at risk than the young, okay, boomer?).

Part of the reason this was inevitable was the infectiousness of asymptomatic carriers.

Nobody ever correctly said that we live in a kind, compassionate, fair universe. At best we justify the universe and say, "It's unfair now, but just you wait--the universe has my back." (And to all those who like baby back ribs, you certainly have the pig's back.)

[Nonhlanhla]

5. This sounds plausible

I've been battling a respiratory infection for several weeks now - no nasal issues or body aches, definitely not flu, short lived fever, stomach issues (one of the minor symptoms of COVID), dry cough, bronchitis. Who knows - might have been it. Once they have serum test that can check for antibodies, I'll check. Meanwhile I'm operating with the assumption that this is just regular bronchitis and that I need to stay out of the way of everybody, since anybody can have COVID at this point. We're flying in the dark here, thanks to the orange menace's desire to make the numbers look good.