And this is why younger adults (esp 20-29) should not be sanguine about COVID-19 and their risk:

[hlthe2b]

Earlier today it was reported that half of France's ICU cases (pneumonia complications) were younger than 50.
Now look at the age distributions of COVID-19 in Italy, which is only testing persons with symptoms and S. Korea, which is testing broadly. Take this to heart, folks. Even if you have stronger immune systems statistically, your risk is not negligible

Link to tweet

[Liberty Belle]

1. Italy and France have a lot of young smokers.

They have damaged their lungs already.

I wonder what the rate is among young otherwise healthy nonsmokers?

[hlthe2b]

2. Lots of secondary smoke exposure too, so it will be a broader factor.

[Ms. Toad]

11. That should not impact who acquires the virus -

merely how sick it makes you if you acquire it.

[hlthe2b]

15. the smoking reference was to the report that 50% of France's ICU cases were younger than 50

[Ms. Toad]

46. I was looking at the chart -

which is all cases, not just ICU cases, and has a lopside population by age.

[hlthe2b]

47. For the French cases? Yes. There was a correction from the twitter stream.

Still if what Twighlight Zone posted (#35) is correct, it represents "serious" cases--whatever that means, rather than "ICU" cases. SO, very unclear.

[uppityperson]

3. Current estimate is half the cases have no symptoms but are contagious

They may not get seriously ill, but can give it to others who are higher risk.

[hlthe2b]

5. That is the assumption. But, despite smoking risks, the stats for Italy's younger ICU cases

means we don't know a lot about the full clinical and epidemiological spectrum.

I'd like to think younger people would take precautions because of the fear of spreading to older people alone. Maybe if they realize that there are health risks to them too they will take it absolutely seriously.

[uppityperson]

8. Yup

[Leghorn21]

4. I just came across this, hit:

Over half of the coronavirus patients in intensive care in the Netherlands are under 50 years old

Link to tweet

Headline of article at link:

40 à 50 Nederlandse coronapatiënten op intensive cares: ‘Meer dan de helft is onder de vijftig’

translated via Google:

40 to 50 Dutch corona patients in intensive care units: "More than half are under fifty"

[hlthe2b]

6. Hmm. I don't think the Netherlands is the bastion of cigarette smoking that

France and Italy have been, so this is disturbing.

[Leghorn21]

7. Yeah, I don't know for it for a fact, but it seems they'd be less inclined to take up the habit

Sure would be good to have this blasted on our national media, because this virus ain't just a "Boomer Remover"

whewwww

[Drahthaardogs]

18. This does not say what he says.

He is trying to say that 20-29 year olds in S. Korea are asymptomatic but taking the test.

This skewness could easily be explained that Italy has a lot more old people and S. Korea a lot more young people. Im going to dig a little.

[hlthe2b]

24. Once again NO. This is percent of positive tests by age group. NOT rates. Demographic

disparities (from generational die-off) comes in when one determines rates, not percent of positive tests.

It merely shows that broad-based testing is necessary to get a complete picture and to detect infections for control. Something we are truly failing at .

[Drahthaardogs]

27. It was explained downpost.

The 20 to 29 year olds represent the outbreak in Daegu of the Christian group. The daya WAS skewed.

I do this for a living. I know how to look at biometrics critically.

[hlthe2b]

28. As do I. You have not read the Korean descriptions of their testing.

And despite your initially conflating rates with percentages, I understand you probably are just assuming from what you have heard and clearly not reading thoroughly.

[Drahthaardogs]

33. Lol. Okay

I said you cannot assume that more young people are infected than older unless you knew the sample make up because it could be skewed. It was. There was a cluster

[hlthe2b]

43. And again, you don't read. Nowhere did I say that young people are infected more than older.

I said their sampling shows they are detecting these positives by more broadly testing than elsewhere.

Is it really impossible for you to read?

[mcar]

10. A whole bunch of new FL cases today

and many of them are ages 19-24.

[shanti]

12. Partying up a storm on spring break n/t

[mcar]

13. They are in Broward County

so possibly.

[Laelth]

14. This virus can trigger a "cytokine storm" that will kill some people with healthy immune systems.

It is believed that cytokine storms were responsible for the disproportionate number of healthy young adult deaths during the 1918 influenza pandemic, which killed 50 to 100 million people.[15] In this case, a healthy immune system may have been a liability rather than an asset. Preliminary research results from Hong Kong also indicated this as the probable reason for many deaths during the SARS epidemic in 2003.[16] Human deaths from the bird flu H5N1 usually involve cytokine storms as well.[17] Cytokine storm has also been implicated in hantavirus pulmonary syndrome.[18]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

-Laelth

[Drahthaardogs]

16. This data does not say what he thinks it does

I suspect there need to be corrected.

Im going to take a guess and say the Korean War greatly reduced the number of old people in Korea skewing the numbers.

[hlthe2b]

17. No, these are not rates, but percent of positive tests.

Survival effect skewing age would only affect rates.

[Drahthaardogs]

21. No. Unless they are randomly testing EVERYONE

That does not hold. These are percents of pisitive cases. All this says is that Korea has a lot more positive cases in young people, which could easily be explained if young people took the majority of the tests.

The data has to be normalized across ages to ecen start to make his point. In addition, we do not know if those young people are asymptomatic. He is guessing

[hlthe2b]

22. You need to read up on S. Korea's testing. They are focusing on population based sampling

as well as among the symptomatic. It is not fully random, but is much broader-based than anywhere else right now and thus they are showing trends we don't see elsewhere.

And no it does not simply say that younger people took most of the tests. This graph depicts percent of positive tests by age group. Not percentage of age group that is positive.

[Drahthaardogs]

23. All this tells you is what percent of the positives wete 20 to 29

Again, if 50% of your sample pool was 20 to 29, this means nothing.

There is also nothing here to justify his statement that the younger people are feeling fine more than any other group.

Its interesting data, but the guy drawing conclusions neefs a biometry course or two.

[hlthe2b]

26. Exactly what I just told you. It reflects the percent of positive cases by age group.

Not rates as you first suggested. Not percent of age group that is positive. Do you even read other's responses to you?

That other countries are not detecting these positives in younger age groups means they are missing a lot of infections.

[Drahthaardogs]

29. No. It means a bunch of Christian youth caught the virus in Daegu

Just like I said. If the sample is not rabdom and independent, ypu cannot do what this guy did.

[hlthe2b]

34. I won't argue with someone who won't read.

I know you are embarrassed that you thought it was rates . Good night

[Drahthaardogs]

39. Um, one of us said that the data was skewed

One of us argued it was not.

[hlthe2b]

40. I never said that. Again you don't read and since you are embarrassed at mistaking these for rates

are now looking for a strawman. I said all along it was percent positives of those they have tested. NO where did I ever say it was a random sample. I said it was broader-based than we have seen elsewhere.

[Drahthaardogs]

42. Okay sweetie

You have a good night.

[hlthe2b]

44. Bless your ever-loving heart.

[Steven Maurer]

19. The Korea cases are due to a Christian Youth Church being a huge vector for the crisis

It doesn't necessarily translate to other countries.

[hlthe2b]

20. You miss the point. Korea is testing broadly and not merely those symptomatic and thus

their percentage of infections includes younger age groups the other countries are not detecting. The take home is that if you are not testing broadly, you are missing infections and thus handicapping your ability to control spread.

[Drahthaardogs]

25. There it is!

More 20 to 29 year olds were tested. I said up pist this data was skewed and needed to be normalized.

THANKS!

[hlthe2b]

31. And again. The point is that when you test broadly you see infections in this age group missed

by limited symptomatic testing ONLY as is the case with the Italian data.

[Drahthaardogs]

36. NO!

There was a CLUSTER! And it was made up of young people. Its not independent nor is it randim, thus you cannot draw the conclusions the guy was drawing.

[hlthe2b]

38. It was NOT just that cluster sampled. Nor is it rates as you've repeatedly tried to imply

What happened to your BS about the missing Korean elderly biasing the data, which would ONLY apply to rates?

[Drahthaardogs]

41. Thats probably part of it too, as is a much larger aged population

In Italy. I saw it right off the bat the data looked weird.

[TwilightZone]

30. The initial report was false and the source posted a correction.

The 50% only applied to 300 cases, not all ICU cases.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13096420

[hlthe2b]

32. You mean the French study of ICU cases, right?

[TwilightZone]

35. Yes, it was initially reported as 50% of ICU cases. It's 50% of 300 specific cases, not all.

Link to tweet

[hlthe2b]

37. Yes. That is a big difference, but still interesting.

[pansypoo53219]

48. i have been watching the S korea #s vs italy + s korea has been stabilized for several days +italy's

have gone up higher.